Cadillac XLR
The Cadillac XLR market indicates a slight probability for upward movement over the next 6, 12, and 24 months, with probabilities of 0.52, 0.53, and 0.55 respectively, all within a volatile regime. While depreciation risk stands at 56.26, the market also registers an undervaluation score of 53.09, and LVMH (luxury proxy ADR) is a strong leading indicator with a 0.82 correlation at a 1-month lead.
What It's Actually Worth
Blended value of a standard 19 yr, 38k mi example, ~$21.9K now. The green line weighs confirmed auction sales most heavily (the amber dots — what cars actually hammered for), blends in fast-selling "just-missed" listings, and lightly smooths out month-to-month composition noise.
Did our model work? 45% direction calls right
Each faint amber line is a forecast we would have made at that point in the past (12-mo horizon), drawn against what actually happened (blue). Over 94 scored forecasts: 45% got the direction right, median value error ±25%.
Walk-forward: each ghost uses only data available at that date — no hindsight. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Auction Scorecard gavel in range 8 in 10
We replayed 395 past auctions in this market — predicting each hammer price from market data before the sale (no hindsight). Typical miss: ±22%; the gavel landed inside our predicted range 8 in 10 of the time, and we lean slightly high on average.
| Sold | Car | Our range | Hammer | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-29 | 2006 · 20k mi | $17.6K–$38.6K | $24.5K | ✓ |
| 2026-06-26 | 2004 · 73k mi | $10.8K–$23.9K | $25.3K | ✗ |
| 2026-06-19 | 2009 · 10k mi | $21.1K–$46.5K | $36.0K | ✓ |
| 2026-06-17 | 2007 · 40k mi | $15.1K–$33.3K | $20.2K | ✓ |
| 2026-06-01 | 2006 · 12k mi | $20.2K–$44.6K | $25.0K | ✓ |
| 2026-05-28 | 2005 · 58k mi | $12.8K–$28.1K | $17.4K | ✓ |
| 2026-05-27 | 2004 · 42k mi | $15.0K–$33.1K | $18.0K | ✓ |
| 2026-05-27 | 2006 · 32k mi | $16.1K–$35.4K | $17.5K | ✓ |
Live now — calling it before the gavel
We're currently tracking 8 open auctions in this market. Here's our predicted hammer range for each — check back after they close.
| Closes | Car | Source | Our predicted range |
|---|---|---|---|
| open | 2005 · 7k mi | classic | $18.8K–$52.8K ($31.5K) |
| open | 2006 · 27k mi | classic | $14.0K–$39.3K ($23.4K) |
| open | 2006 | classic | $13.1K–$36.8K ($21.9K) |
| open | 2004 | classic | $13.1K–$36.8K ($21.9K) |
| open | 2005 · 41k mi | classic | $12.7K–$35.7K ($21.3K) |
| open | 2005 · 52k mi | BaT | $11.3K–$31.8K ($19.0K) |
| open | 2008 · 61k mi | classic | $10.5K–$29.4K ($17.5K) |
| open | 2006 · 75k mi | classic | $9.1K–$25.6K ($15.3K) |
No-lookahead: predictions are made before each auction closes; the scorecard grades confirmed sold auctions only (no-sales excluded). A modeled estimate, not a guarantee. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Where We Think It's Headed
Probability and range, not a single number. Wider = less certain (not bigger gains).
| Horizon | Direction | Probability | Confidence | Past accuracy |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 mo | UP | 52% | Low | 56% |
| 12 mo | UP | 53% | Low | 45% |
| 24 mo | UP | 55% | Low | 45% |
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Crystal Ball — What Leading Indicators Signal
Distinct from the trend forecast above: this blends all 8 leading indicators (each at its own lead time, de-duplicated so correlated ones don't double-count) into one signal. Leading indicators are collectively signaling higher over the next ~12 months (low conviction — 28% of weighted drivers agree), driven mainly by Ethereum (USD) and 10-Year Treasury Yield, though Ethereum (USD) points the other way.
Are the indicators agreeing?
Each bar is one driver's current push; longer = more weight. All one side = high conviction; split = low.
If You’d Bought in 2012
$100K invested 2012-04 → today (14.2 yrs), this car vs where else you could've put the money. Rebased to 100 at the start; the dashed line is inflation (break-even).
What This Market Follows
Specialty-car prices don't move in a vacuum. These economic indicators have historically led this market — tap one to see it shifted forward by its lead time, overlaid on the value line.
LVMH (luxury proxy ADR) leads by about 1 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.81). Shown shifted forward 1 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Why We Think This
Current Inventory Snapshot
Comparable Markets
| Market | Undervaluation | Appreciation | Liquidity |
|---|---|---|---|
| BMW 1M Coupe (E82) | 30 | 47 | 47 |
| Nissan 350Z | 41 | 64 | 45 |
| Nissan 350Z NISMO | 45 | 64 | 19 |
| Nissan 370Z | 53 | 49 | 56 |
| Alfa Romeo 4C | 56 | 45 | 46 |
| Fiat 500 (2012-2019) | 36 | 63 | 42 |
| Porsche 718 Boxster/Cayman | 54 | 47 | 54 |
| Porsche 718 Boxster/Cayman GT4 | 22 | 53 | 48 |
Recent Signals & Alerts
- vin returned lower VIN relisted $-6,000 vs prior
- vin returned higher VIN relisted +$4,501 vs prior
- vin returned higher VIN relisted +$4,501 vs prior
- vin returned lower VIN relisted $-5,000 vs prior
- vin returned lower VIN relisted $-3,500 vs prior
- vin returned higher VIN relisted +$4,501 vs prior
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.