Audi S4 (B6)
Due to a 'thin' data state, this market outlook for the Audi S4 (B6) carries low confidence. The data signals a relatively high depreciation risk at 66.95 and low liquidity at 35.03, with an outlook indicating a downward trend with probabilities ranging from 0.54 to 0.58 across 6 to 24 months, all within a volatile regime. Nonfarm Payrolls (jobs) stands as the strongest leading indicator with a -0.79 correlation, preceding movements by 2 months.
What It's Actually Worth
Blended value of a standard 20 yr, 83k mi example, ~$10.2K now. The green line weighs confirmed auction sales most heavily (the amber dots — what cars actually hammered for), blends in fast-selling "just-missed" listings, and lightly smooths out month-to-month composition noise.
Did our model work? 60% direction calls right
Each faint amber line is a forecast we would have made at that point in the past (12-mo horizon), drawn against what actually happened (blue). Over 48 scored forecasts: 60% got the direction right, median value error ±35%.
Walk-forward: each ghost uses only data available at that date — no hindsight. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Auction Scorecard gavel in range 5 in 10
We replayed 100 past auctions in this market — predicting each hammer price from market data before the sale (no hindsight). Typical miss: ±36%; the gavel landed inside our predicted range 5 in 10 of the time.
| Sold | Car | Our range | Hammer | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-08 | 2004 · 74k mi | $6.9K–$15.3K | $26.0K | ✗ |
| 2026-08-18 | 2005 · 64k mi | $7.4K–$16.5K | $13.3K | ✓ |
| 2026-08-13 | 2004 · 107k mi | $5.9K–$13.3K | $14.6K | ✗ |
| 2026-06-23 | 2004 · 92k mi | $6.7K–$15.0K | $14.5K | ✓ |
| 2026-06-19 | 2004 · 131k mi | $5.8K–$12.9K | $6.8K | ✓ |
| 2026-05-22 | 2004 · 47k mi | $8.6K–$19.3K | $11.0K | ✓ |
| 2026-05-20 | 2004 · 117k mi | $6.2K–$13.9K | $14.4K | ✗ |
| 2026-05-01 | 2005 · 144k mi | $5.7K–$12.8K | $3.1K | ✗ |
Live now — calling it before the gavel
We're currently tracking 4 open auctions in this market. Here's our predicted hammer range for each — check back after they close.
| Closes | Car | Source | Our predicted range |
|---|---|---|---|
| open | 2005 · 94k mi | BaT | $5.3K–$15.2K ($9.0K) |
| open | 2004 | C&B | $5.9K–$17.0K ($10.0K) |
| open | 2005 · 47k mi | classic | $7.0K–$19.6K ($11.7K) |
| open | 2005 · 111k mi | classic | $5.4K–$17.3K ($9.7K) |
No-lookahead: predictions are made before each auction closes; the scorecard grades confirmed sold auctions only (no-sales excluded). A modeled estimate, not a guarantee. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Where We Think It's Headed
Probability and range, not a single number. Wider = less certain (not bigger gains).
| Horizon | Direction | Probability | Confidence | Past accuracy |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 mo | FLAT | 50% | Low | 57% |
| 12 mo | DOWN | 57% | Low | 60% |
| 24 mo | DOWN | 59% | Low | 81% |
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Crystal Ball — What Leading Indicators Signal
Distinct from the trend forecast above: this blends all 8 leading indicators (each at its own lead time, de-duplicated so correlated ones don't double-count) into one signal. Leading indicators are collectively signaling higher over the next ~12 months (high conviction — 76% of weighted drivers agree), driven mainly by Real Disposable Income per Capita and Effective Fed Funds Rate, though High-Yield Bond Spread points the other way.
Are the indicators agreeing?
Each bar is one driver's current push; longer = more weight. All one side = high conviction; split = low.
If You’d Bought in 2014
$100K invested 2014-01 → today (12.7 yrs), this car vs where else you could've put the money. Rebased to 100 at the start; the dashed line is inflation (break-even).
What This Market Follows
Specialty-car prices don't move in a vacuum. These economic indicators have historically led this market — tap one to see it shifted forward by its lead time, overlaid on the value line.
Nonfarm Payrolls (jobs) leads by about 2 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.79). Shown shifted forward 2 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Why We Think This
Current Inventory Snapshot
Comparable Markets
| Market | Undervaluation | Appreciation | Liquidity |
|---|---|---|---|
| BMW 1M Coupe (E82) | 44 | 44 | 57 |
| Nissan 350Z | 55 | 53 | 53 |
| Nissan 350Z NISMO | 51 | 9 | 56 |
| Nissan 370Z | 50 | 45 | 46 |
| Alfa Romeo 4C | 50 | 49 | 39 |
| Fiat 500 (2012-2019) | 66 | 29 | 48 |
| Porsche 718 Boxster/Cayman | 47 | 47 | 39 |
| Porsche 718 Boxster/Cayman GT4 | 19 | 42 | 41 |
Recent Signals & Alerts
- vin returned higher VIN relisted +$3,551 vs prior
- vin returned higher VIN relisted +$3,551 vs prior
- undisclosed title change VIN previously reported non-clean now listed clean/undisclosed
- price jump Median asking moved sharply (z=7.2)
- undisclosed title change VIN previously reported non-clean now listed clean/undisclosed
- undisclosed title change VIN previously reported non-clean now listed clean/undisclosed
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.