Audi S4 (B6)
Due to a thin data state, this low-confidence outlook for the Audi S4 (B6) signals a potential downward trend with a 0.58 probability over 24 months in a volatile regime, alongside an overvaluation score of 68.44 and low liquidity at 28.16. The strongest leading indicator identified is the Case-Shiller National Home Price, showing a -0.76 correlation.
What It's Actually Worth
Blended value of a standard 20 yr, 91k mi example, ~$11.0K now. The green line weighs confirmed auction sales most heavily (the amber dots — what cars actually hammered for), blends in fast-selling "just-missed" listings, and lightly smooths out month-to-month composition noise.
Did our model work? 55% direction calls right
Each faint amber line is a forecast we would have made at that point in the past (12-mo horizon), drawn against what actually happened (blue). Over 47 scored forecasts: 55% got the direction right, median value error ±42%.
Walk-forward: each ghost uses only data available at that date — no hindsight. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Auction Scorecard gavel in range 5 in 10
We replayed 100 past auctions in this market — predicting each hammer price from market data before the sale (no hindsight). Typical miss: ±35%; the gavel landed inside our predicted range 5 in 10 of the time.
| Sold | Car | Our range | Hammer | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-23 | 2004 · 92k mi | $7.3K–$16.0K | $14.5K | ✓ |
| 2026-06-19 | 2004 · 131k mi | $6.0K–$13.3K | $6.8K | ✓ |
| 2026-05-22 | 2004 · 47k mi | $8.4K–$18.5K | $11.0K | ✓ |
| 2026-05-20 | 2004 · 117k mi | $6.5K–$14.4K | $14.4K | ✗ |
| 2026-05-01 | 2005 · 144k mi | $5.7K–$12.6K | $3.1K | ✗ |
| 2026-03-30 | 2005 · 97k mi | $7.6K–$16.6K | $12.0K | ✓ |
| 2026-03-12 | 2005 · 36k mi | $9.4K–$20.6K | $14.0K | ✓ |
| 2025-12-15 | 2005 · 117k mi | $6.3K–$13.9K | $12.0K | ✓ |
Live now — calling it before the gavel
We're currently tracking 8 open auctions in this market. Here's our predicted hammer range for each — check back after they close.
| Closes | Car | Source | Our predicted range |
|---|---|---|---|
| open | 2005 · 47k mi | classic | $7.0K–$19.6K ($11.7K) |
| open | 2004 · 98k mi | ebay | $6.4K–$17.8K ($10.6K) |
| open | 2004 · 92k mi | BaT | $6.3K–$17.7K ($10.6K) |
| open | 2005 · 138k mi | classic | $4.7K–$15.0K ($8.4K) |
| open | 2004 · 71k mi | classic | $5.9K–$19.0K ($10.6K) |
| open | 2005 · 114k mi | classic | $5.3K–$17.0K ($9.5K) |
| open | 2005 · 111k mi | classic | $5.4K–$17.3K ($9.7K) |
| open | 2004 · 7k mi | classic | $7.4K–$23.6K ($13.2K) |
No-lookahead: predictions are made before each auction closes; the scorecard grades confirmed sold auctions only (no-sales excluded). A modeled estimate, not a guarantee. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Where We Think It's Headed
Probability and range, not a single number. Wider = less certain (not bigger gains).
| Horizon | Direction | Probability | Confidence | Past accuracy |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 mo | DOWN | 55% | Low | 53% |
| 12 mo | DOWN | 56% | Low | 55% |
| 24 mo | DOWN | 58% | Low | 74% |
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Crystal Ball — What Leading Indicators Signal
Distinct from the trend forecast above: this blends all 8 leading indicators (each at its own lead time, de-duplicated so correlated ones don't double-count) into one signal. Leading indicators are collectively signaling higher over the next ~12 months (high conviction — 100% of weighted drivers agree), driven mainly by Effective Fed Funds Rate and U. Michigan Consumer Sentiment.
Are the indicators agreeing?
Each bar is one driver's current push; longer = more weight. All one side = high conviction; split = low.
If You’d Bought in 2014
$100K invested 2014-01 → today (12.5 yrs), this car vs where else you could've put the money. Rebased to 100 at the start; the dashed line is inflation (break-even).
What This Market Follows
Specialty-car prices don't move in a vacuum. These economic indicators have historically led this market — tap one to see it shifted forward by its lead time, overlaid on the value line.
Case-Shiller National Home Price leads by about 0 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.76). Shown shifted forward 0 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Why We Think This
Current Inventory Snapshot
Comparable Markets
| Market | Undervaluation | Appreciation | Liquidity |
|---|---|---|---|
| BMW 1M Coupe (E82) | 30 | 47 | 47 |
| Nissan 350Z | 41 | 64 | 45 |
| Nissan 350Z NISMO | 45 | 64 | 19 |
| Nissan 370Z | 53 | 49 | 56 |
| Alfa Romeo 4C | 56 | 45 | 46 |
| Fiat 500 (2012-2019) | 36 | 63 | 42 |
| Porsche 718 Boxster/Cayman | 54 | 47 | 54 |
| Porsche 718 Boxster/Cayman GT4 | 22 | 53 | 48 |
Recent Signals & Alerts
- vin returned higher VIN relisted +$4,500 vs prior
- vin returned higher VIN relisted +$4,500 vs prior
- vin returned higher VIN relisted +$3,000 vs prior
- vin returned higher VIN relisted +$4,500 vs prior
- vin returned higher VIN relisted +$4,500 vs prior
- vin returned higher VIN relisted +$4,500 vs prior
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.