Audi RS3
The Audi RS3 market outlook is a low-confidence read due to thin data. Signals indicate appreciation momentum at 58.46 and depreciation risk at 47.08, with a potential upward direction over the next 6 to 24 months, though probabilities are around 0.39-0.4 in a volatile regime. A strong leading indicator for this market is Advance Retail Sales, showing a correlation of 0.78 with a 3-month lead.
What It's Actually Worth
Blended value of a standard 6 yr, 34k mi example, ~$44.1K now. The green line weighs confirmed auction sales most heavily (the amber dots — what cars actually hammered for), blends in fast-selling "just-missed" listings, and lightly smooths out month-to-month composition noise.
Did our model work? 58% direction calls right
Each faint amber line is a forecast we would have made at that point in the past (12-mo horizon), drawn against what actually happened (blue). Over 24 scored forecasts: 58% got the direction right, median value error ±11%.
Walk-forward: each ghost uses only data available at that date — no hindsight. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Auction Scorecard gavel in range 10 in 10
We replayed 62 past auctions in this market — predicting each hammer price from market data before the sale (no hindsight). Typical miss: ±11%; the gavel landed inside our predicted range 10 in 10 of the time, and we lean slightly high on average.
| Sold | Car | Our range | Hammer | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-24 | 2024 · 6k mi | $37.8K–$83.8K | $63.5K | ✓ |
| 2026-06-23 | 2018 · 54k mi | $26.1K–$57.7K | $34.0K | ✓ |
| 2026-05-27 | 2018 · 60k mi | $25.2K–$55.9K | $37.3K | ✓ |
| 2026-05-20 | 2024 · 13k mi | $33.1K–$73.3K | $53.5K | ✓ |
| 2026-04-20 | 2017 · 64k mi | $24.6K–$54.4K | $37.5K | ✓ |
| 2026-03-31 | 2019 · 44k mi | $28.2K–$62.4K | $34.1K | ✓ |
| 2026-03-18 | 2019 · 56k mi | $26.4K–$58.4K | $29.3K | ✓ |
| 2026-03-10 | 2019 · 42k mi | $28.6K–$63.3K | $39.5K | ✓ |
Live now — calling it before the gavel
We're currently tracking 8 open auctions in this market. Here's our predicted hammer range for each — check back after they close.
| Closes | Car | Source | Our predicted range |
|---|---|---|---|
| open | 2018 | C&B | $26.1K–$74.3K ($44.1K) |
| open | 2018 · 21k mi | classic | $27.9K–$78.7K ($46.8K) |
| open | 2022 · 36k mi | classic | $25.7K–$72.4K ($43.1K) |
| open | 2020 · 54k mi | classic | $23.3K–$65.9K ($39.2K) |
| open | 2025 · 5k mi | classic | $35.3K–$99.2K ($59.2K) |
| open | 2023 · 7k mi | classic | $33.8K–$95.0K ($56.7K) |
| open | 2024 · 9k mi | classic | $32.0K–$90.0K ($53.7K) |
| open | 2024 · 20k mi | classic | $27.9K–$78.5K ($46.8K) |
No-lookahead: predictions are made before each auction closes; the scorecard grades confirmed sold auctions only (no-sales excluded). A modeled estimate, not a guarantee. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Where We Think It's Headed
Probability and range, not a single number. Wider = less certain (not bigger gains).
| Horizon | Direction | Probability | Confidence | Past accuracy |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 mo | UP | 40% | Moderate | 40% |
| 12 mo | UP | 40% | Moderate | 58% |
| 24 mo | UP | 39% | Moderate | 33% |
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Lead Indicator Forecast
Some indicators move before this market does. Unemployment Rate has historically led it by about 8 months — so its recent move implies where prices head next (dashed). The solid green line is actual value through today; the shaded path is what the lead implies.
If You’d Bought in 2021
$100K invested 2021-09 → today (4.9 yrs), this car vs where else you could've put the money. Rebased to 100 at the start; the dashed line is inflation (break-even).
What This Market Follows
Specialty-car prices don't move in a vacuum. These economic indicators have historically led this market — tap one to see it shifted forward by its lead time, overlaid on the value line.
Unemployment Rate leads by about 8 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.75). Shown shifted forward 8 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Why We Think This
Current Inventory Snapshot
Comparable Markets
| Market | Undervaluation | Appreciation | Liquidity |
|---|---|---|---|
| BMW 1M Coupe (E82) | 17 | 68 | 61 |
| Nissan 350Z | 43 | 68 | 50 |
| Nissan 350Z NISMO | 29 | 55 | 57 |
| Nissan 370Z | 50 | 45 | 50 |
| Alfa Romeo 4C | 54 | 40 | 45 |
| Fiat 500 (2012-2019) | 36 | 58 | 45 |
| Porsche 718 Boxster/Cayman | 44 | 37 | 36 |
| Porsche 718 Boxster/Cayman GT4 | 17 | 38 | 30 |
Recent Signals & Alerts
- inventory shortage Inventory dropped (robust z=-3.1)
- inventory shortage Inventory dropped (robust z=-3.6)
- inventory shortage Inventory dropped (robust z=-3.3)
- inventory spike Inventory spiked (robust z=3.4)
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.