Audi RS3
Due to a thin data state, this read for the Audi RS3 market is low-confidence. Current signals suggest a liquidity score of 55.05, while appreciation momentum stands at 48.25 and speculation opportunity is 44.38. The 6 and 12-month outlooks suggest an 'up' direction with a 0.4 probability under a volatile regime, shifting to 'flat' with a 0.5 probability at 24 months; Advance Retail Sales is the strongest leading indicator, showing a 0.78 correlation with a 3-month lead.
What It's Actually Worth
Blended value of a standard 6 yr, 34k mi example, ~$45.2K now. The green line weighs confirmed auction sales most heavily (the amber dots — what cars actually hammered for), blends in fast-selling "just-missed" listings, and lightly smooths out month-to-month composition noise.
Did our model work? 44% direction calls right
Each faint amber line is a forecast we would have made at that point in the past (12-mo horizon), drawn against what actually happened (blue). Over 25 scored forecasts: 44% got the direction right, median value error ±11%.
Walk-forward: each ghost uses only data available at that date — no hindsight. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Auction Scorecard gavel in range 10 in 10
We replayed 63 past auctions in this market — predicting each hammer price from market data before the sale (no hindsight). Typical miss: ±11%; the gavel landed inside our predicted range 10 in 10 of the time, and we lean slightly high on average.
| Sold | Car | Our range | Hammer | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-21 | 2018 · 49k mi | $27.1K–$60.6K | $41.0K | ✓ |
| 2026-06-24 | 2024 · 6k mi | $38.0K–$84.9K | $63.5K | ✓ |
| 2026-06-23 | 2018 · 54k mi | $26.2K–$58.6K | $34.0K | ✓ |
| 2026-05-27 | 2018 · 60k mi | $25.4K–$56.8K | $37.3K | ✓ |
| 2026-05-20 | 2024 · 13k mi | $33.1K–$73.9K | $53.5K | ✓ |
| 2026-04-20 | 2017 · 64k mi | $24.9K–$55.6K | $37.5K | ✓ |
| 2026-03-31 | 2019 · 44k mi | $28.6K–$63.9K | $34.1K | ✓ |
| 2026-03-18 | 2019 · 56k mi | $26.7K–$59.6K | $29.3K | ✓ |
Live now — calling it before the gavel
We're currently tracking 8 open auctions in this market. Here's our predicted hammer range for each — check back after they close.
| Closes | Car | Source | Our predicted range |
|---|---|---|---|
| open | 2018 · 68k mi | BaT | $21.8K–$62.5K ($36.9K) |
| open | 2024 · 20k mi | classic | $27.9K–$78.5K ($46.8K) |
| open | 2023 · 25k mi | classic | $27.1K–$76.2K ($45.5K) |
| open | 2024 | classic | $26.3K–$73.9K ($44.1K) |
| open | 2018 · 48k mi | classic | $24.1K–$67.8K ($40.5K) |
| open | 2022 · 61k mi | classic | $22.6K–$63.3K ($37.8K) |
| open | 2025 · 4k mi | classic | $31.3K–$100K ($56.1K) |
| open | 2018 · 14k mi | classic | $26.5K–$84.9K ($47.4K) |
No-lookahead: predictions are made before each auction closes; the scorecard grades confirmed sold auctions only (no-sales excluded). A modeled estimate, not a guarantee. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Where We Think It's Headed
Probability and range, not a single number. Wider = less certain (not bigger gains).
| Horizon | Direction | Probability | Confidence | Past accuracy |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 mo | DOWN | 59% | Moderate | 42% |
| 12 mo | DOWN | 57% | Moderate | 44% |
| 24 mo | DOWN | 56% | Moderate | 46% |
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Lead Indicator Forecast
Some indicators move before this market does. Effective Fed Funds Rate has historically led it by about 1 months — so its recent move implies where prices head next (dashed). The solid green line is actual value through today; the shaded path is what the lead implies.
Crystal Ball — What Leading Indicators Signal
Distinct from the trend forecast above: this blends all 8 leading indicators (each at its own lead time, de-duplicated so correlated ones don't double-count) into one signal. Leading indicators are collectively signaling higher over the next ~12 months (moderate conviction — 50% of weighted drivers agree), driven mainly by VIX Volatility Index and Bitcoin (USD), though Personal Savings Rate points the other way.
Are the indicators agreeing?
Each bar is one driver's current push; longer = more weight. All one side = high conviction; split = low.
If You’d Bought in 2021
$100K invested 2021-09 → today (5.0 yrs), this car vs where else you could've put the money. Rebased to 100 at the start; the dashed line is inflation (break-even).
What This Market Follows
Specialty-car prices don't move in a vacuum. These economic indicators have historically led this market — tap one to see it shifted forward by its lead time, overlaid on the value line.
Effective Fed Funds Rate leads by about 1 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.73). Shown shifted forward 1 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Why We Think This
Current Inventory Snapshot
Comparable Markets
| Market | Undervaluation | Appreciation | Liquidity |
|---|---|---|---|
| BMW 1M Coupe (E82) | 44 | 44 | 57 |
| Nissan 350Z | 55 | 53 | 53 |
| Nissan 350Z NISMO | 51 | 9 | 56 |
| Nissan 370Z | 50 | 45 | 46 |
| Alfa Romeo 4C | 50 | 49 | 39 |
| Fiat 500 (2012-2019) | 66 | 29 | 48 |
| Porsche 718 Boxster/Cayman | 47 | 47 | 39 |
| Porsche 718 Boxster/Cayman GT4 | 19 | 42 | 41 |
Recent Signals & Alerts
- price jump Median asking moved sharply (z=-6.9)
- price jump Median asking moved sharply (z=-7.8)
- price jump Median asking moved sharply (z=5.6)
- price jump Median asking moved sharply (z=-5.3)
- price jump Median asking moved sharply (z=4.6)
- price jump Median asking moved sharply (z=12.3)
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.