Mercedes-AMG GT
Current data for the Mercedes-AMG GT market, with a confidence of 0.935, indicates an undervaluation score of 62.23 and an appreciation momentum of 36.99, alongside a depreciation risk of 55.45. The outlook suggests an upward direction with probabilities ranging from 0.56 at 6 months to 0.63 at 24 months, consistently within a volatile regime. The strongest leading indicator for this market is the Case-Shiller National Home Price, showing a correlation of 0.79 with a 2-month lead.
What It's Actually Worth
Blended value of a standard 7 yr, 15k mi example, ~$79.5K now. The green line weighs confirmed auction sales most heavily (the amber dots — what cars actually hammered for), blends in fast-selling "just-missed" listings, and lightly smooths out month-to-month composition noise.
Did our model work? 58% direction calls right
Each faint amber line is a forecast we would have made at that point in the past (12-mo horizon), drawn against what actually happened (blue). Over 26 scored forecasts: 58% got the direction right, median value error ±121%.
Walk-forward: each ghost uses only data available at that date — no hindsight. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Auction Scorecard gavel in range 8 in 10
We replayed 121 past auctions in this market — predicting each hammer price from market data before the sale (no hindsight). Typical miss: ±21%; the gavel landed inside our predicted range 8 in 10 of the time.
| Sold | Car | Our range | Hammer | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-12 | 2016 · 8k mi | $60.3K–$133K | $77.0K | ✓ |
| 2026-07-04 | 2018 · 20k mi | $52.5K–$116K | $131K | ✗ |
| 2026-07-03 | 2020 · 32k mi | $47.7K–$105K | $92.5K | ✓ |
| 2026-07-02 | 2021 · 1k mi | $130K–$286K | $429K | ✗ |
| 2026-06-27 | 2021 · 1k mi | $147K–$326K | $418K | ✗ |
| 2026-06-26 | 2017 · 24k mi | $50.9K–$112K | $66.0K | ✓ |
| 2026-06-25 | 2021 · 1k mi | $152K–$336K | $705K | ✗ |
| 2026-06-11 | 2018 · 8k mi | $60.5K–$134K | $105K | ✓ |
Live now — calling it before the gavel
We're currently tracking 8 open auctions in this market. Here's our predicted hammer range for each — check back after they close.
| Closes | Car | Source | Our predicted range |
|---|---|---|---|
| open | 2020 · 2k mi | ebay | $87.6K–$247K ($147K) |
| open | 2016 · 27k mi | classic | $43.5K–$123K ($73.1K) |
| open | 2018 · 30k mi | ebay | $42.6K–$120K ($71.5K) |
| open | 2017 · 55k mi | ebay | $37.4K–$106K ($62.8K) |
| open | 2018 · 9k mi | classic | $52.1K–$147K ($87.5K) |
| open | 2018 · 13k mi | classic | $49.0K–$138K ($82.4K) |
| open | 2018 · 19k mi | classic | $46.6K–$131K ($78.2K) |
| open | 2021 · 23k mi | classic | $45.0K–$127K ($75.6K) |
No-lookahead: predictions are made before each auction closes; the scorecard grades confirmed sold auctions only (no-sales excluded). A modeled estimate, not a guarantee. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Where We Think It's Headed
Probability and range, not a single number. Wider = less certain (not bigger gains).
| Horizon | Direction | Probability | Confidence | Past accuracy |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 mo | UP | 56% | Low | 72% |
| 12 mo | UP | 59% | Low | 58% |
| 24 mo | UP | 63% | Low | 57% |
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Lead Indicator Forecast
Some indicators move before this market does. Russell 2000 (small cap) has historically led it by about 1 months — so its recent move implies where prices head next (dashed). The solid green line is actual value through today; the shaded path is what the lead implies.
Crystal Ball — What Leading Indicators Signal
Distinct from the trend forecast above: this blends all 8 leading indicators (each at its own lead time, de-duplicated so correlated ones don't double-count) into one signal. Leading indicators are collectively signaling lower over the next ~12 months (high conviction — 100% of weighted drivers agree), driven mainly by Russell 2000 (small cap) and 10Y-2Y Yield Spread.
Are the indicators agreeing?
Each bar is one driver's current push; longer = more weight. All one side = high conviction; split = low.
If You’d Bought in 2019
$100K invested 2019-01 → today (7.5 yrs), this car vs where else you could've put the money. Rebased to 100 at the start; the dashed line is inflation (break-even).
What This Market Follows
Specialty-car prices don't move in a vacuum. These economic indicators have historically led this market — tap one to see it shifted forward by its lead time, overlaid on the value line.
Case-Shiller National Home Price leads by about 2 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.74). Shown shifted forward 2 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Why We Think This
Current Inventory Snapshot
Comparable Markets
| Market | Undervaluation | Appreciation | Liquidity |
|---|---|---|---|
| BMW 1M Coupe (E82) | 27 | 59 | 48 |
| Nissan 350Z | 42 | 66 | 48 |
| Nissan 350Z NISMO | 48 | 67 | 50 |
| Nissan 370Z | 54 | 48 | 55 |
| Alfa Romeo 4C | 53 | 42 | 44 |
| Fiat 500 (2012-2019) | 34 | 60 | 41 |
| Porsche 718 Boxster/Cayman | 54 | 45 | 55 |
| Porsche 718 Boxster/Cayman GT4 | 27 | 53 | 50 |
Recent Signals & Alerts
- vin returned lower VIN relisted $-22,893 vs prior
- vin returned higher VIN relisted +$10,901 vs prior
- undisclosed title change VIN previously reported non-clean now listed clean/undisclosed
- undisclosed title change VIN previously reported non-clean now listed clean/undisclosed
- undisclosed title change VIN previously reported non-clean now listed clean/undisclosed
- vin returned higher VIN relisted +$10,901 vs prior
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.