Mercedes-AMG GT
Flagged undervalued because -47% vs 2-yr avg, -44% vs 3-yr trend, asking -14% vs historic sold, and sell-through 99%.
What It's Actually Worth
Blended value of a standard 7 yr, 16k mi example, ~$79.5K now. The green line weighs confirmed auction sales most heavily (the amber dots — what cars actually hammered for), blends in fast-selling "just-missed" listings, and lightly smooths out month-to-month composition noise.
Did our model work? 60% direction calls right
Each faint amber line is a forecast we would have made at that point in the past (12-mo horizon), drawn against what actually happened (blue). Over 15 scored forecasts: 60% got the direction right, median value error ±63%.
Walk-forward: each ghost uses only data available at that date — no hindsight. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Auction Scorecard gavel in range 7 in 10
We replayed 107 past auctions in this market — predicting each hammer price from market data before the sale (no hindsight). Typical miss: ±23%; the gavel landed inside our predicted range 7 in 10 of the time.
| Sold | Car | Our range | Hammer | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-27 | 2018 · 16k mi | $53.6K–$129K | $87.0K | ✓ |
| 2026-05-26 | 2021 · 6k mi | $62.1K–$150K | $266K | ✗ |
| 2026-05-26 | 2016 · 66k mi | $41.0K–$98.9K | $56.0K | ✓ |
| 2026-05-21 | 2016 · 40k mi | $45.3K–$109K | $67.7K | ✓ |
| 2026-05-16 | 2017 · 19k mi | $52.4K–$126K | $73.9K | ✓ |
| 2026-05-13 | 2019 · 8k mi | $59.3K–$143K | $120K | ✓ |
| 2026-05-07 | 2018 · 6k mi | $62.8K–$151K | $89.0K | ✓ |
| 2026-05-06 | 2016 · 7k mi | $50.4K–$162K | $88.0K | ✓ |
Live now — calling it before the gavel
We're currently tracking 8 open auctions in this market. Here's our predicted hammer range for each — check back after they close.
| Closes | Car | Source | Our predicted range |
|---|---|---|---|
| open | 2020 · 19k mi | classic | $43.8K–$141K ($78.5K) |
| open | 2022 · 20k mi | classic | $43.6K–$140K ($78.1K) |
| open | 2016 · 8k mi | classic | $51.1K–$164K ($91.6K) |
| open | 2018 · 33k mi | classic | $39.3K–$126K ($70.5K) |
| open | 2018 · 38k mi | classic | $38.2K–$123K ($68.5K) |
| open | 2018 · 45k mi | classic | $36.8K–$118K ($65.9K) |
| open | 2021 · 2k mi | classic | $78.1K–$251K ($140K) |
| open | 2017 · 13k mi | classic | $45.3K–$146K ($81.2K) |
No-lookahead: predictions are made before each auction closes; the scorecard grades confirmed sold auctions only (no-sales excluded). A modeled estimate, not a guarantee. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Where We Think It's Headed
Probability and range, not a single number. Wider = less certain (not bigger gains).
| Horizon | Direction | Probability | Confidence | Past accuracy |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 mo | UP | 54% | Low | 57% |
| 12 mo | UP | 56% | Low | 60% |
| 24 mo | UP | 59% | Low | 0% |
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Lead Indicator Forecast
Some indicators move before this market does. Russell 2000 (small cap) has historically led it by about 2 months — so its recent move implies where prices head next (dashed). The solid green line is actual value through today; the shaded path is what the lead implies.
Crystal Ball — What Leading Indicators Signal
Distinct from the trend forecast above: this blends all 8 leading indicators (each at its own lead time, de-duplicated so correlated ones don't double-count) into one signal. Leading indicators are collectively signaling lower over the next ~12 months (high conviction — 73% of weighted drivers agree), driven mainly by Russell 2000 (small cap) and LVMH (luxury proxy ADR), though 10Y-2Y Yield Spread points the other way.
Are the indicators agreeing?
Each bar is one driver's current push; longer = more weight. All one side = high conviction; split = low.
If You’d Bought in 2019
$100K invested 2019-01 → today (7.4 yrs), this car vs where else you could've put the money. Rebased to 100 at the start; the dashed line is inflation (break-even).
What This Market Follows
Specialty-car prices don't move in a vacuum. These economic indicators have historically led this market — tap one to see it shifted forward by its lead time, overlaid on the value line.
10Y-2Y Yield Spread leads by about 0 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.72). Shown shifted forward 0 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Why We Think This
Current Inventory Snapshot
Comparable Markets
| Market | Undervaluation | Appreciation | Liquidity |
|---|---|---|---|
| BMW 1M Coupe (E82) | 50 | 34 | 49 |
| Nissan 350Z | 47 | 60 | 48 |
| Nissan 370Z | 52 | 56 | 56 |
| Alfa Romeo 4C | 58 | 35 | 49 |
| Fiat 500 (2012-2019) | 35 | 33 | 39 |
| Porsche 718 Boxster/Cayman | 63 | 46 | 54 |
| Porsche 911 (964) | 44 | 43 | 45 |
| Porsche 911 Turbo (964) | 26 | 75 | 22 |
Recent Signals & Alerts
- vin returned higher VIN relisted +$64,100 vs prior
- undisclosed title change VIN previously reported non-clean now listed clean/undisclosed
- vin returned higher VIN relisted +$8,020 vs prior
- undisclosed title change VIN previously reported non-clean now listed clean/undisclosed
- vin returned higher VIN relisted +$64,100 vs prior
- undisclosed title change VIN previously reported non-clean now listed clean/undisclosed
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.