Porsche 911 (997)
The Porsche 911 (997) market shows an appreciation momentum of 62.64, alongside an overvaluation score of 60.26. With high confidence (0.935), a volatile upward trend is signaled across 6, 12, and 24 months, with probabilities ranging from 0.53 to 0.58. Advance Retail Sales, correlating at 0.84 with an 8-month lead, is a strong indicator for future market direction.
What It's Actually Worth
Blended value of a standard 17 yr, 51k mi example, ~$62.4K now. The green line weighs confirmed auction sales most heavily (the amber dots — what cars actually hammered for), blends in fast-selling "just-missed" listings, and lightly smooths out month-to-month composition noise.
Did our model work? 72% direction calls right
Each faint amber line is a forecast we would have made at that point in the past (12-mo horizon), drawn against what actually happened (blue). Over 68 scored forecasts: 72% got the direction right, median value error ±28%.
Walk-forward: each ghost uses only data available at that date — no hindsight. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Auction Scorecard gavel in range 7 in 10
We replayed 1,137 past auctions in this market — predicting each hammer price from market data before the sale (no hindsight). Typical miss: ±28%; the gavel landed inside our predicted range 7 in 10 of the time.
| Sold | Car | Our range | Hammer | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-16 | 2011 · 23k mi | $55.8K–$125K | $320K | ✗ |
| 2026-09-16 | 2011 · 23k mi | $55.8K–$125K | $205K | ✗ |
| 2026-09-15 | 2009 · 145k mi | $23.8K–$53.2K | $37.5K | ✓ |
| 2026-09-15 | 2006 · 71k mi | $35.1K–$78.4K | $36.0K | ✓ |
| 2026-09-15 | 2006 · 101k mi | $28.5K–$63.8K | $27.1K | ✗ |
| 2026-09-12 | 2005 · 127k mi | $25.0K–$56.0K | $23.0K | ✗ |
| 2026-09-11 | 2005 · 52k mi | $39.9K–$89.2K | $38.0K | ✗ |
| 2026-09-10 | 2010 · 89k mi | $30.8K–$68.8K | $36.2K | ✓ |
Live now — calling it before the gavel
We're currently tracking 8 open auctions in this market. Here's our predicted hammer range for each — check back after they close.
| Closes | Car | Source | Our predicted range |
|---|---|---|---|
| open | 2009 · 77k mi | BaT | $30.6K–$87.6K ($51.7K) |
| open | 2009 · 125k mi | BaT | $23.0K–$66.0K ($39.0K) |
| open | 2009 · 31k mi | ebay | $44.4K–$127K ($75.1K) |
| open | 2005 · 68k mi | BaT | $32.9K–$94.2K ($55.6K) |
| open | 2009 · 74k mi | ebay | $31.4K–$89.9K ($53.1K) |
| open | 2011 · 84k mi | ebay | $28.9K–$82.7K ($48.9K) |
| open | 2005 · 107k mi | BaT | $25.2K–$72.1K ($42.6K) |
| open | 2010 | C&B | $35.9K–$103K ($60.8K) |
No-lookahead: predictions are made before each auction closes; the scorecard grades confirmed sold auctions only (no-sales excluded). A modeled estimate, not a guarantee. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Where We Think It's Headed
Probability and range, not a single number. Wider = less certain (not bigger gains).
| Horizon | Direction | Probability | Confidence | Past accuracy |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 mo | DOWN | 45% | Low | 61% |
| 12 mo | UP | 58% | Low | 72% |
| 24 mo | UP | 62% | Low | 95% |
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Crystal Ball — What Leading Indicators Signal
Distinct from the trend forecast above: this blends all 8 leading indicators (each at its own lead time, de-duplicated so correlated ones don't double-count) into one signal. Leading indicators are collectively signaling higher over the next ~12 months (low conviction — 27% of weighted drivers agree), driven mainly by Trade-Weighted Dollar Index and LVMH (luxury proxy ADR), though M2 Money Supply points the other way.
Are the indicators agreeing?
Each bar is one driver's current push; longer = more weight. All one side = high conviction; split = low.
If You’d Bought in 2013
$100K invested 2013-11 → today (12.8 yrs), this car vs where else you could've put the money. Rebased to 100 at the start; the dashed line is inflation (break-even).
What This Market Follows
Specialty-car prices don't move in a vacuum. These economic indicators have historically led this market — tap one to see it shifted forward by its lead time, overlaid on the value line.
Advance Retail Sales leads by about 8 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.84). Shown shifted forward 8 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Why We Think This
Current Inventory Snapshot
Comparable Markets
| Market | Undervaluation | Appreciation | Liquidity |
|---|---|---|---|
| BMW 1M Coupe (E82) | 44 | 44 | 57 |
| Nissan 350Z | 55 | 53 | 53 |
| Nissan 350Z NISMO | 51 | 9 | 56 |
| Nissan 370Z | 50 | 45 | 46 |
| Alfa Romeo 4C | 50 | 49 | 39 |
| Fiat 500 (2012-2019) | 66 | 29 | 48 |
| Porsche 718 Boxster/Cayman | 47 | 47 | 39 |
| Porsche 718 Boxster/Cayman GT4 | 19 | 42 | 41 |
Recent Signals & Alerts
- vin returned higher VIN relisted +$13,908 vs prior
- vin returned lower VIN relisted $-8,476 vs prior
- vin returned higher VIN relisted +$124,970 vs prior
- vin returned lower VIN relisted $-45,001 vs prior
- inventory shortage Inventory dropped (robust z=-3.6)
- vin returned lower VIN relisted $-36,497 vs prior
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.