Porsche 911 (992)
Current data for the Porsche 911 (992) market indicates an overvaluation score of 56.32 and a depreciation risk of 53.36, alongside a liquidity score of 47.62. The 6-month forecast shows a 0.5 probability of a down direction, transitioning to a 0.52 probability of an up direction at 12 months, both within a volatile regime. A strong leading indicator, with a correlation of 0.74, is the Effective Fed Funds Rate.
What It's Actually Worth
Blended value of a standard 2 yr, 4k mi example, ~$208K now. The green line weighs confirmed auction sales most heavily (the amber dots — what cars actually hammered for), blends in fast-selling "just-missed" listings, and lightly smooths out month-to-month composition noise.
Did our model work? 59% direction calls right
Each faint amber line is a forecast we would have made at that point in the past (12-mo horizon), drawn against what actually happened (blue). Over 32 scored forecasts: 59% got the direction right, median value error ±18%.
Walk-forward: each ghost uses only data available at that date — no hindsight. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Auction Scorecard gavel in range 7 in 10
We replayed 59 past auctions in this market — predicting each hammer price from market data before the sale (no hindsight). Typical miss: ±27%; the gavel landed inside our predicted range 7 in 10 of the time, and we lean slightly low on average.
| Sold | Car | Our range | Hammer | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-22 | 2025 · 0k mi | $246K–$543K | $286K | ✓ |
| 2026-06-04 | 2023 · 12k mi | $127K–$357K | $151K | ✓ |
| 2026-06-02 | 2023 · 4k mi | $176K–$388K | $234K | ✓ |
| 2026-05-13 | 2025 · 0k mi | $265K–$585K | $315K | ✓ |
| 2026-05-11 | 2020 · 10k mi | $88.5K–$245K | $130K | ✓ |
| 2026-04-27 | 2021 · 7k mi | $108K–$347K | $139K | ✓ |
| 2026-04-16 | 2020 · 22k mi | $115K–$319K | $111K | ✗ |
| 2026-04-07 | 2025 · 1k mi | $273K–$604K | $357K | ✓ |
Live now — calling it before the gavel
We're currently tracking 8 open auctions in this market. Here's our predicted hammer range for each — check back after they close.
| Closes | Car | Source | Our predicted range |
|---|---|---|---|
| open | 2025 · 1k mi | classic | $150K–$423K ($252K) |
| open | 2024 · 2k mi | ebay | $145K–$408K ($243K) |
| open | 2023 · 3k mi | BaT | $132K–$373K ($222K) |
| open | 2024 · 6k mi | classic | $121K–$341K ($203K) |
| open | 2020 · 31k mi | classic | $99.4K–$281K ($167K) |
| open | 2025 · 2k mi | ebay | $139K–$394K ($234K) |
| open | 2020 · 42k mi | ebay | $101K–$285K ($169K) |
| open | 2025 · 0k mi | classic | $180K–$508K ($303K) |
No-lookahead: predictions are made before each auction closes; the scorecard grades confirmed sold auctions only (no-sales excluded). A modeled estimate, not a guarantee. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Where We Think It's Headed
Probability and range, not a single number. Wider = less certain (not bigger gains).
| Horizon | Direction | Probability | Confidence | Past accuracy |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 mo | DOWN | 50% | Low | 53% |
| 12 mo | UP | 52% | Low | 59% |
| 24 mo | UP | 55% | Low | 65% |
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Lead Indicator Forecast
Some indicators move before this market does. Trade-Weighted Dollar Index has historically led it by about 7 months — so its recent move implies where prices head next (dashed). The solid green line is actual value through today; the shaded path is what the lead implies.
Crystal Ball — What Leading Indicators Signal
Distinct from the trend forecast above: this blends all 8 leading indicators (each at its own lead time, de-duplicated so correlated ones don't double-count) into one signal. Leading indicators are collectively signaling lower over the next ~12 months (high conviction — 100% of weighted drivers agree), driven mainly by Trade-Weighted Dollar Index and Gold (futures).
Are the indicators agreeing?
Each bar is one driver's current push; longer = more weight. All one side = high conviction; split = low.
If You’d Bought in 2023
$100K invested 2023-06 → today (3.5 yrs), this car vs where else you could've put the money. Rebased to 100 at the start; the dashed line is inflation (break-even).
What This Market Follows
Specialty-car prices don't move in a vacuum. These economic indicators have historically led this market — tap one to see it shifted forward by its lead time, overlaid on the value line.
Trade-Weighted Dollar Index leads by about 7 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.70). Shown shifted forward 7 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Why We Think This
Current Inventory Snapshot
Comparable Markets
| Market | Undervaluation | Appreciation | Liquidity |
|---|---|---|---|
| BMW 1M Coupe (E82) | 27 | 59 | 48 |
| Nissan 350Z | 42 | 66 | 48 |
| Nissan 350Z NISMO | 48 | 67 | 50 |
| Nissan 370Z | 54 | 48 | 55 |
| Alfa Romeo 4C | 53 | 42 | 44 |
| Fiat 500 (2012-2019) | 34 | 60 | 41 |
| Porsche 718 Boxster/Cayman | 54 | 45 | 55 |
| Porsche 718 Boxster/Cayman GT4 | 27 | 53 | 50 |
Recent Signals & Alerts
- vin returned higher VIN relisted +$22,950 vs prior
- vin returned lower VIN relisted $-36,328 vs prior
- vin returned higher VIN relisted +$49,900 vs prior
- vin returned higher VIN relisted +$16,092 vs prior
- vin returned lower VIN relisted $-36,828 vs prior
- vin returned higher VIN relisted +$49,900 vs prior
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.