Porsche 911 (991)
The Porsche 911 (991) market currently registers an undervaluation score of 60.29, with liquidity at 53.37 and speculation opportunity at 54.86. While forecasts for the next 6 to 24 months show a potential "up" direction, probabilities range narrowly from 0.5 to 0.53, signaling a volatile regime. A strong leading indicator for this market is the High-Yield Bond Spread, correlating at -0.58 with an 11-12 month lead.
What It's Actually Worth
Blended value of a standard 10 yr, 31k mi example, ~$87.5K now. The green line weighs confirmed auction sales most heavily (the amber dots — what cars actually hammered for), blends in fast-selling "just-missed" listings, and lightly smooths out month-to-month composition noise.
Did our model work? 50% direction calls right
Each faint amber line is a forecast we would have made at that point in the past (12-mo horizon), drawn against what actually happened (blue). Over 52 scored forecasts: 50% got the direction right, median value error ±32%.
Walk-forward: each ghost uses only data available at that date — no hindsight. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Auction Scorecard gavel in range 9 in 10
We replayed 794 past auctions in this market — predicting each hammer price from market data before the sale (no hindsight). Typical miss: ±15%; the gavel landed inside our predicted range 9 in 10 of the time, and we lean slightly high on average.
| Sold | Car | Our range | Hammer | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-30 | 2019 · 28k mi | $60.7K–$134K | $91.5K | ✓ |
| 2026-06-30 | 2014 · 60k mi | $50.6K–$111K | $55.0K | ✓ |
| 2026-06-29 | 2017 · 17k mi | $67.4K–$148K | $96.0K | ✓ |
| 2026-06-28 | 2012 · 43k mi | $55.7K–$123K | $76.5K | ✓ |
| 2026-06-26 | 2019 · 13k mi | $72.1K–$159K | $121K | ✓ |
| 2026-06-25 | 2012 · 4k mi | $96.8K–$213K | $100K | ✓ |
| 2026-06-25 | 2012 · 94k mi | $39.8K–$87.5K | $44.3K | ✓ |
| 2026-06-24 | 2018 · 13k mi | $72.1K–$159K | $115K | ✓ |
Live now — calling it before the gavel
We're currently tracking 8 open auctions in this market. Here's our predicted hammer range for each — check back after they close.
| Closes | Car | Source | Our predicted range |
|---|---|---|---|
| open | 2017 · 16k mi | ebay | $59.9K–$168K ($100K) |
| open | 2017 · 17k mi | classic | $58.8K–$165K ($98.5K) |
| open | 2017 · 18k mi | ebay | $58.6K–$165K ($98.3K) |
| open | 2013 · 51k mi | classic | $46.6K–$131K ($78.1K) |
| open | 2013 · 64k mi | classic | $42.9K–$121K ($71.9K) |
| open | 2017 · 15k mi | classic | $61.0K–$171K ($102K) |
| open | 2017 · 17k mi | classic | $59.1K–$166K ($99.0K) |
| open | 2013 · 30k mi | classic | $52.4K–$147K ($87.9K) |
No-lookahead: predictions are made before each auction closes; the scorecard grades confirmed sold auctions only (no-sales excluded). A modeled estimate, not a guarantee. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Where We Think It's Headed
Probability and range, not a single number. Wider = less certain (not bigger gains).
| Horizon | Direction | Probability | Confidence | Past accuracy |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 mo | UP | 50% | Low | 50% |
| 12 mo | UP | 51% | Low | 50% |
| 24 mo | UP | 53% | Low | 45% |
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Lead Indicator Forecast
Some indicators move before this market does. Bitcoin (USD) has historically led it by about 3 months — so its recent move implies where prices head next (dashed). The solid green line is actual value through today; the shaded path is what the lead implies.
Crystal Ball — What Leading Indicators Signal
Distinct from the trend forecast above: this blends all 8 leading indicators (each at its own lead time, de-duplicated so correlated ones don't double-count) into one signal. Leading indicators are collectively signaling higher over the next ~12 months (moderate conviction — 44% of weighted drivers agree), driven mainly by Bitcoin (USD) and Housing Starts, though Bitcoin (USD) points the other way.
Are the indicators agreeing?
Each bar is one driver's current push; longer = more weight. All one side = high conviction; split = low.
If You’d Bought in 2018
$100K invested 2018-03 → today (8.3 yrs), this car vs where else you could've put the money. Rebased to 100 at the start; the dashed line is inflation (break-even).
What This Market Follows
Specialty-car prices don't move in a vacuum. These economic indicators have historically led this market — tap one to see it shifted forward by its lead time, overlaid on the value line.
LVMH (luxury proxy ADR) leads by about 0 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.47). Shown shifted forward 0 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Why We Think This
Current Inventory Snapshot
Comparable Markets
| Market | Undervaluation | Appreciation | Liquidity |
|---|---|---|---|
| BMW 1M Coupe (E82) | 30 | 47 | 47 |
| Nissan 350Z | 41 | 64 | 45 |
| Nissan 350Z NISMO | 45 | 64 | 19 |
| Nissan 370Z | 53 | 49 | 56 |
| Alfa Romeo 4C | 56 | 45 | 46 |
| Fiat 500 (2012-2019) | 36 | 63 | 42 |
| Porsche 718 Boxster/Cayman | 54 | 47 | 54 |
| Porsche 718 Boxster/Cayman GT4 | 22 | 53 | 48 |
Recent Signals & Alerts
- vin returned higher VIN relisted +$36,900 vs prior
- vin returned lower VIN relisted $-20,605 vs prior
- vin returned higher VIN relisted +$15,495 vs prior
- vin returned lower VIN relisted $-20,605 vs prior
- undisclosed title change VIN previously reported non-clean now listed clean/undisclosed
- vin returned higher VIN relisted +$15,500 vs prior
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.