Porsche Cayman (987)
The market for the Porsche Cayman (987) signals a depreciation risk of 52.53 and liquidity of 56.65, alongside an undervaluation score of 51.97. Data indicates a potential upward direction over the next 6, 12, and 24 months, with probabilities ranging from 0.52 to 0.58, though movement is expected to be volatile. The strongest leading indicator for this market is the Case-Shiller National Home Price, showing a correlation of 0.79 and leading by 7 months.
What It's Actually Worth
Blended value of a standard 17 yr, 58k mi example, ~$30.7K now. The green line weighs confirmed auction sales most heavily (the amber dots — what cars actually hammered for), blends in fast-selling "just-missed" listings, and lightly smooths out month-to-month composition noise.
Did our model work? 58% direction calls right
Each faint amber line is a forecast we would have made at that point in the past (12-mo horizon), drawn against what actually happened (blue). Over 53 scored forecasts: 58% got the direction right, median value error ±27%.
Walk-forward: each ghost uses only data available at that date — no hindsight. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Auction Scorecard gavel in range 8 in 10
We replayed 711 past auctions in this market — predicting each hammer price from market data before the sale (no hindsight). Typical miss: ±18%; the gavel landed inside our predicted range 8 in 10 of the time, and we lean slightly high on average.
| Sold | Car | Our range | Hammer | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-16 | 2012 · 42k mi | $21.9K–$48.4K | $59.0K | ✗ |
| 2026-07-16 | 2012 · 34k mi | $23.7K–$52.3K | $49.5K | ✓ |
| 2026-07-14 | 2006 · 93k mi | $16.9K–$37.4K | $40.0K | ✗ |
| 2026-07-14 | 2009 · 73k mi | $18.9K–$41.8K | $38.3K | ✓ |
| 2026-07-09 | 2007 · 89k mi | $17.3K–$38.2K | $19.3K | ✓ |
| 2026-07-06 | 2007 · 92k mi | $17.0K–$37.5K | $19.6K | ✓ |
| 2026-07-03 | 2007 · 122k mi | $14.4K–$31.7K | $36.5K | ✗ |
| 2026-07-01 | 2006 | $18.5K–$52.0K | $39.1K | ✓ |
Live now — calling it before the gavel
We're currently tracking 8 open auctions in this market. Here's our predicted hammer range for each — check back after they close.
| Closes | Car | Source | Our predicted range |
|---|---|---|---|
| open | 2006 · 17k mi | classic | $24.9K–$70.4K ($41.9K) |
| open | 2007 · 78k mi | ebay | $16.3K–$45.9K ($27.3K) |
| open | 2006 · 79k mi | classic | $16.2K–$45.6K ($27.2K) |
| open | 2008 · 116k mi | classic | $13.0K–$36.7K ($21.8K) |
| open | 2006 · 64k mi | BaT | $17.9K–$50.4K ($30.0K) |
| open | 2008 · 76k mi | classic | $16.6K–$46.8K ($27.8K) |
| open | 2006 · 77k mi | classic | $16.4K–$46.4K ($27.6K) |
| open | 2006 · 94k mi | classic | $15.0K–$42.4K ($25.2K) |
No-lookahead: predictions are made before each auction closes; the scorecard grades confirmed sold auctions only (no-sales excluded). A modeled estimate, not a guarantee. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Where We Think It's Headed
Probability and range, not a single number. Wider = less certain (not bigger gains).
| Horizon | Direction | Probability | Confidence | Past accuracy |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 mo | UP | 52% | Low | 63% |
| 12 mo | UP | 55% | Low | 58% |
| 24 mo | UP | 58% | Low | 71% |
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
If You’d Bought in 2015
$100K invested 2015-07 → today (11.0 yrs), this car vs where else you could've put the money. Rebased to 100 at the start; the dashed line is inflation (break-even).
What This Market Follows
Specialty-car prices don't move in a vacuum. These economic indicators have historically led this market — tap one to see it shifted forward by its lead time, overlaid on the value line.
Case-Shiller National Home Price leads by about 6 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.71). Shown shifted forward 6 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Why We Think This
Current Inventory Snapshot
Comparable Markets
| Market | Undervaluation | Appreciation | Liquidity |
|---|---|---|---|
| BMW 1M Coupe (E82) | 27 | 59 | 48 |
| Nissan 350Z | 42 | 66 | 48 |
| Nissan 350Z NISMO | 48 | 67 | 50 |
| Nissan 370Z | 54 | 48 | 55 |
| Alfa Romeo 4C | 53 | 42 | 44 |
| Fiat 500 (2012-2019) | 34 | 60 | 41 |
| Porsche 718 Boxster/Cayman | 54 | 45 | 55 |
| Porsche 718 Boxster/Cayman GT4 | 27 | 53 | 50 |
Recent Signals & Alerts
- vin returned higher VIN relisted +$5,000 vs prior
- vin returned lower VIN relisted $-7,810 vs prior
- vin returned higher VIN relisted +$5,000 vs prior
- vin returned lower VIN relisted $-7,810 vs prior
- vin returned higher VIN relisted +$20,795 vs prior
- vin returned lower VIN relisted $-20,567 vs prior
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.