Porsche Cayman (981)
The Porsche Cayman (981) market exhibits signals for potential price increases across all horizons, with probabilities rising from 0.59 over 6 months to 0.7 over 24 months, though operating within a volatile regime. The market currently scores 62.87 for undervaluation and 58.97 for liquidity. A strong leading indicator is CPI (All Urban Consumers), showing a 0.93 correlation with a 9-month lead.
What It's Actually Worth
Blended value of a standard 9 yr, 26k mi example, ~$64.9K now. The green line weighs confirmed auction sales most heavily (the amber dots — what cars actually hammered for), blends in fast-selling "just-missed" listings, and lightly smooths out month-to-month composition noise.
Did our model work? 74% direction calls right
Each faint amber line is a forecast we would have made at that point in the past (12-mo horizon), drawn against what actually happened (blue). Over 43 scored forecasts: 74% got the direction right, median value error ±17%.
Walk-forward: each ghost uses only data available at that date — no hindsight. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Auction Scorecard gavel in range 8 in 10
We replayed 392 past auctions in this market — predicting each hammer price from market data before the sale (no hindsight). Typical miss: ±19%; the gavel landed inside our predicted range 8 in 10 of the time, and we lean slightly high on average.
| Sold | Car | Our range | Hammer | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-07 | 2014 · 74k mi | $28.2K–$62.3K | $32.0K | ✓ |
| 2026-06-30 | 2014 · 21k mi | $50.5K–$112K | $63.5K | ✓ |
| 2026-06-19 | 2014 · 38k mi | $38.2K–$84.4K | $49.0K | ✓ |
| 2026-06-11 | 2016 · 37k mi | $38.7K–$85.6K | $99.5K | ✗ |
| 2026-06-09 | 2016 · 10k mi | $63.0K–$139K | $84.0K | ✓ |
| 2026-06-08 | 2016 · 32k mi | $41.4K–$91.5K | $128K | ✗ |
| 2026-06-03 | 2014 · 9k mi | $63.0K–$139K | $52.5K | ✗ |
| 2026-06-01 | 2015 · 17k mi | $54.7K–$121K | $56.5K | ✓ |
Live now — calling it before the gavel
We're currently tracking 8 open auctions in this market. Here's our predicted hammer range for each — check back after they close.
| Closes | Car | Source | Our predicted range |
|---|---|---|---|
| open | 2014 · 58k mi | classic | $27.1K–$76.5K ($45.6K) |
| open | 2014 · 9k mi | classic | $53.4K–$151K ($89.7K) |
| open | 2015 · 15k mi | classic | $47.9K–$135K ($80.5K) |
| open | 2014 · 40k mi | classic | $31.7K–$89.4K ($53.2K) |
| open | 2015 · 58k mi | classic | $27.3K–$77.0K ($45.9K) |
| open | 2015 · 42k mi | classic | $31.0K–$87.6K ($52.1K) |
| open | 2014 · 70k mi | classic | $25.4K–$71.3K ($42.5K) |
| open | 2016 · 23k mi | classic | $41.0K–$115K ($68.7K) |
No-lookahead: predictions are made before each auction closes; the scorecard grades confirmed sold auctions only (no-sales excluded). A modeled estimate, not a guarantee. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Where We Think It's Headed
Probability and range, not a single number. Wider = less certain (not bigger gains).
| Horizon | Direction | Probability | Confidence | Past accuracy |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 mo | UP | 59% | Low | 59% |
| 12 mo | UP | 64% | Low | 74% |
| 24 mo | UP | 70% | Low | 81% |
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Crystal Ball — What Leading Indicators Signal
Distinct from the trend forecast above: this blends all 8 leading indicators (each at its own lead time, de-duplicated so correlated ones don't double-count) into one signal. Leading indicators are collectively signaling lower over the next ~12 months (moderate conviction — 50% of weighted drivers agree), driven mainly by Silver and VIX Volatility Index, though VIX Volatility Index points the other way.
Are the indicators agreeing?
Each bar is one driver's current push; longer = more weight. All one side = high conviction; split = low.
If You’d Bought in 2021
$100K invested 2021-03 → today (5.3 yrs), this car vs where else you could've put the money. Rebased to 100 at the start; the dashed line is inflation (break-even).
What This Market Follows
Specialty-car prices don't move in a vacuum. These economic indicators have historically led this market — tap one to see it shifted forward by its lead time, overlaid on the value line.
Case-Shiller National Home Price leads by about 8 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.85). Shown shifted forward 8 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Why We Think This
Current Inventory Snapshot
Comparable Markets
| Market | Undervaluation | Appreciation | Liquidity |
|---|---|---|---|
| BMW 1M Coupe (E82) | 27 | 59 | 48 |
| Nissan 350Z | 42 | 66 | 48 |
| Nissan 350Z NISMO | 48 | 67 | 50 |
| Nissan 370Z | 54 | 48 | 55 |
| Alfa Romeo 4C | 53 | 42 | 44 |
| Fiat 500 (2012-2019) | 34 | 60 | 41 |
| Porsche 718 Boxster/Cayman | 54 | 45 | 55 |
| Porsche 718 Boxster/Cayman GT4 | 27 | 53 | 50 |
Recent Signals & Alerts
- vin returned higher VIN relisted +$7,000 vs prior
- price jump Median asking moved sharply (z=6.5)
- undisclosed title change VIN previously reported non-clean now listed clean/undisclosed
- inventory shortage Inventory dropped (robust z=-4.1)
- vin returned higher VIN relisted +$7,000 vs prior
- undisclosed title change VIN previously reported non-clean now listed clean/undisclosed
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.