Porsche 968
Given the thin data, this outlook for the Porsche 968 market is low-confidence. Current signals show relatively low appreciation momentum at 39.81 and higher depreciation risk at 63.0, with a 0.51 probability of a downward, volatile trend over the next 6, 12, and 24 months. The High-Yield Bond Spread is the strongest leading indicator, showing a correlation of -0.63 with a 22-month lead.
What It's Actually Worth
Blended value of a standard 31 yr, 83k mi example, ~$23.7K now. The green line weighs confirmed auction sales most heavily (the amber dots — what cars actually hammered for), blends in fast-selling "just-missed" listings, and lightly smooths out month-to-month composition noise.
Did our model work? 54% direction calls right
Each faint amber line is a forecast we would have made at that point in the past (12-mo horizon), drawn against what actually happened (blue). Over 63 scored forecasts: 54% got the direction right, median value error ±28%.
Walk-forward: each ghost uses only data available at that date — no hindsight. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Auction Scorecard gavel in range 6 in 10
We replayed 253 past auctions in this market — predicting each hammer price from market data before the sale (no hindsight). Typical miss: ±33%; the gavel landed inside our predicted range 6 in 10 of the time, and we lean slightly high on average.
| Sold | Car | Our range | Hammer | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-16 | 1994 · 92k mi | $14.6K–$32.7K | $17.5K | ✓ |
| 2026-08-14 | 1993 · 7k mi | $24.2K–$54.0K | $76.0K | ✗ |
| 2026-08-06 | 1994 · 44k mi | $18.3K–$40.9K | $40.3K | ✓ |
| 2026-08-05 | 1994 · 72k mi | $16.5K–$36.9K | $11.0K | ✗ |
| 2026-07-30 | 1993 · 63k mi | $17.0K–$38.0K | $25.8K | ✓ |
| 2026-07-25 | 1992 · 71k mi | $16.2K–$36.3K | $50.0K | ✗ |
| 2026-07-19 | 1993 · 157k mi | $10.0K–$22.3K | $30.0K | ✗ |
| 2026-07-16 | 1995 · 74k mi | $15.9K–$35.4K | $27.0K | ✓ |
Live now — calling it before the gavel
We're currently tracking 8 open auctions in this market. Here's our predicted hammer range for each — check back after they close.
| Closes | Car | Source | Our predicted range |
|---|---|---|---|
| open | 1995 · 59k mi | BaT | $15.5K–$44.4K ($26.2K) |
| open | 1994 · 158k mi | BaT | $9.0K–$25.8K ($15.3K) |
| open | 1994 · 236k mi | ebay | $8.3K–$23.7K ($14.0K) |
| open | 1995 · 93k mi | classic | $17.4K–$49.1K ($29.3K) |
| open | 1994 · 75k mi | classic | $19.8K–$55.8K ($33.2K) |
| open | 1993 · 26k mi | classic | $23.3K–$65.4K ($39.0K) |
| open | 1994 · 55k mi | classic | $14.0K–$44.8K ($25.0K) |
| open | 1992 · 57k mi | classic | $14.0K–$44.9K ($25.1K) |
No-lookahead: predictions are made before each auction closes; the scorecard grades confirmed sold auctions only (no-sales excluded). A modeled estimate, not a guarantee. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Where We Think It's Headed
Probability and range, not a single number. Wider = less certain (not bigger gains).
| Horizon | Direction | Probability | Confidence | Past accuracy |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 mo | UP | 47% | Low | 59% |
| 12 mo | FLAT | 50% | Low | 54% |
| 24 mo | DOWN | 54% | Low | 57% |
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Crystal Ball — What Leading Indicators Signal
Distinct from the trend forecast above: this blends all 8 leading indicators (each at its own lead time, de-duplicated so correlated ones don't double-count) into one signal. Leading indicators are collectively signaling higher over the next ~12 months (moderate conviction — 53% of weighted drivers agree), driven mainly by Nasdaq Composite and 10-Year Treasury Yield, though Initial Jobless Claims points the other way.
Are the indicators agreeing?
Each bar is one driver's current push; longer = more weight. All one side = high conviction; split = low.
If You’d Bought in 2013
$100K invested 2013-01 → today (13.7 yrs), this car vs where else you could've put the money. Rebased to 100 at the start; the dashed line is inflation (break-even).
What This Market Follows
Specialty-car prices don't move in a vacuum. These economic indicators have historically led this market — tap one to see it shifted forward by its lead time, overlaid on the value line.
10-Year Treasury Yield leads by about 1 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.41). Shown shifted forward 1 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Why We Think This
Current Inventory Snapshot
Comparable Markets
| Market | Undervaluation | Appreciation | Liquidity |
|---|---|---|---|
| BMW 1M Coupe (E82) | 44 | 44 | 57 |
| Nissan 350Z | 55 | 53 | 53 |
| Nissan 350Z NISMO | 51 | 9 | 56 |
| Nissan 370Z | 50 | 45 | 46 |
| Alfa Romeo 4C | 50 | 49 | 39 |
| Fiat 500 (2012-2019) | 66 | 29 | 48 |
| Porsche 718 Boxster/Cayman | 47 | 47 | 39 |
| Porsche 718 Boxster/Cayman GT4 | 19 | 42 | 41 |
Recent Signals & Alerts
- vin returned higher VIN relisted +$48,932 vs prior
- inventory shortage Inventory dropped (robust z=-3.5)
- vin returned lower VIN relisted $-21,750 vs prior
- vin returned higher VIN relisted +$3,996 vs prior
- inventory shortage Inventory dropped (robust z=-3.5)
- vin returned higher VIN relisted +$3,996 vs prior
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.