The Porsche 718 Boxster/Cayman Spyder market shows signals of overvaluation at 62.52 and lower liquidity at 34.32. While forecasts indicate a modest upward probability between 0.51 and 0.55 across 6, 12, and 24-month horizons, the market is projected to be volatile. The Case-Shiller National Home Price index is a strong leading indicator, showing a 0.87 correlation with a 9-month lead.
What It's Actually Worth
Blended value of a standard 3 yr, 3k mi example, ~$141K now. The green line weighs confirmed auction sales most heavily (the amber dots — what cars actually hammered for), blends in fast-selling "just-missed" listings, and lightly smooths out month-to-month composition noise.
◫ 151 confirmed auction sales·60 months tracked·since 2021-10·243 active listings
Did our model work? 76% direction calls right
Each faint amber line is a forecast we would have made at that point in the past (12-mo horizon), drawn against what actually happened (blue). Over 29 scored forecasts: 76% got the direction right, median value error ±6%.
━ actual╱ past predictions (ghosts)
Walk-forward: each ghost uses only data available at that date — no hindsight. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Where We Think It's Headed
Probability and range, not a single number. Wider = less certain (not bigger gains).
Horizon
Direction
Probability
Confidence
Past accuracy
6 mo
UP
57%
Low
49%
12 mo
UP
63%
Low
76%
24 mo
UP
70%
Low
82%
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Crystal Ball — What Leading Indicators Signal
Distinct from the trend forecast above: this blends all 8 leading indicators (each at its own lead time, de-duplicated so correlated ones don't double-count) into one signal. Leading indicators are collectively signaling lower over the next ~12 months (high conviction — 78% of weighted drivers agree), driven mainly by Russell 2000 (small cap) and LVMH (luxury proxy ADR), though Trade-Weighted Dollar Index points the other way.
⚠ The price trend and leading indicators disagree — momentum may be running ahead of the fundamentals.
Are the indicators agreeing?
Each bar is one driver's current push; longer = more weight. All one side = high conviction; split = low.
If You’d Bought in 2021
$100K invested 2021-10 → today (4.9 yrs), this car vs where else you could've put the money. Rebased to 100 at the start; the dashed line is inflation (break-even).
━ This car $115K━ S&P 500 $182K━ Gold $245K━ Luxury $73.5K━ Housing $123K₿ Bitcoin $127K (off-scale)
Lost ground to inflation. The Porsche 718 Boxster/Cayman Spyder roughly 1.1×'d your money (a real 5% LOSS to inflation). It LAGGED the stock market by about 37% — the same money in the S&P 500 would be larger. It trailed housing (-7%). (Price only — a real round-trip also loses ~10–20% to buy/sell fees and carrying costs.)
Specialty-car prices don't move in a vacuum. These economic indicators have historically led this market — tap one to see it shifted forward by its lead time, overlaid on the value line.
Case-Shiller National Home Price leads by about 9 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.87). Shown shifted forward 9 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Porsche 718 Boxster/Cayman Spyder┄ Case-Shiller National Home Price, shifted +9mo
CPI (All Urban Consumers) leads by about 13 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.87). Shown shifted forward 13 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Core CPI (ex food/energy) leads by about 20 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.87). Shown shifted forward 20 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Advance Retail Sales leads by about 6 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.86). Shown shifted forward 6 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Gold (futures) leads by about 12 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.85). Shown shifted forward 12 months so its turns line up with the market's.
High-Yield Bond Spread leads by about 23 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.85). Shown shifted forward 23 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Porsche 718 Boxster/Cayman Spyder┄ High-Yield Bond Spread, shifted +23mo
Nonfarm Payrolls (jobs) leads by about 11 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.84). Shown shifted forward 11 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Dow Jones Industrial leads by about 3 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.84). Shown shifted forward 3 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Porsche 718 Boxster/Cayman Spyder┄ Dow Jones Industrial, shifted +3mo
Why We Think This
Appreciation Momentum
48
Undervaluation
31
Liquidity
34
Speculation Opportunity
42
Depreciation Risk
42
Overvaluation
68
asking +107% vs historic soldasking vs historic spread
sell-through 25%sell through rate
inventory -1%inventory trend slope
asking trend -0.1%/momedian asking trend slope
35% relistedlisting reappearance rate
new-listing velocity 1% of activenew listing velocity
vin returned higher VIN relisted +$10,518 vs prior
undisclosed title change VIN previously reported non-clean now listed clean/undisclosed
vin returned higher VIN relisted +$11,018 vs prior
undisclosed title change VIN previously reported non-clean now listed clean/undisclosed
price jump Median asking moved sharply (z=-24.4)
undisclosed title change VIN previously reported non-clean now listed clean/undisclosed
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.