The Porsche 718 Boxster/Cayman Spyder market indicates an overvaluation score of 68.23 and a depreciation risk of 56.98, with appreciation momentum at 44.84. Forecasts suggest a potential for upward movement over 6, 12, and 24 months with probabilities of 0.52, 0.54, and 0.57 respectively, although a volatile regime is anticipated. Gold (futures) is the strongest leading indicator, showing a correlation of -0.77 with a 17-month lead.
What It's Actually Worth
Blended value of a standard 2 yr, 3k mi example, ~$136K now. The green line weighs confirmed auction sales most heavily (the amber dots — what cars actually hammered for), blends in fast-selling "just-missed" listings, and lightly smooths out month-to-month composition noise.
◫ 145 confirmed auction sales·58 months tracked·since 2021-10·77 active listings
Did our model work? 52% direction calls right
Each faint amber line is a forecast we would have made at that point in the past (12-mo horizon), drawn against what actually happened (blue). Over 27 scored forecasts: 52% got the direction right, median value error ±15%.
━ actual╱ past predictions (ghosts)
Walk-forward: each ghost uses only data available at that date — no hindsight. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Where We Think It's Headed
Probability and range, not a single number. Wider = less certain (not bigger gains).
Horizon
Direction
Probability
Confidence
Past accuracy
6 mo
UP
52%
Low
39%
12 mo
UP
54%
Low
52%
24 mo
UP
57%
Low
73%
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Lead Indicator Forecast
Some indicators move before this market does. Gold (futures) has historically led it by about 17 months — so its recent move implies where prices head next (dashed). The solid green line is actual value through today; the shaded path is what the lead implies.
BECAUSE gold rose 46%. THEREFORE, given its usual 17-month head start, we lean UP — about +3% (≈ +$3,865) over the next 17 months. Confidence: Moderate (correlation -0.77, 29 months overlap).
Crystal Ball — What Leading Indicators Signal
Distinct from the trend forecast above: this blends all 8 leading indicators (each at its own lead time, de-duplicated so correlated ones don't double-count) into one signal. Leading indicators are collectively signaling lower over the next ~12 months (high conviction — 76% of weighted drivers agree), driven mainly by Gold (futures) and Nonfarm Payrolls (jobs), though 30-Year Mortgage Rate points the other way.
⚠ The price trend and leading indicators disagree — momentum may be running ahead of the fundamentals.
Are the indicators agreeing?
Each bar is one driver's current push; longer = more weight. All one side = high conviction; split = low.
If You’d Bought in 2021
$100K invested 2021-10 → today (4.8 yrs), this car vs where else you could've put the money. Rebased to 100 at the start; the dashed line is inflation (break-even).
━ This car $104K━ S&P 500 $177K━ Gold $230K━ Luxury $83.1K━ Housing $121K₿ Bitcoin $96.7K (off-scale)
Lost ground to inflation. The Porsche 718 Boxster/Cayman Spyder roughly 1.0×'d your money (a real 14% LOSS to inflation). It LAGGED the stock market by about 41% — the same money in the S&P 500 would be larger. It trailed housing (-14%). (Price only — a real round-trip also loses ~10–20% to buy/sell fees and carrying costs.)
Specialty-car prices don't move in a vacuum. These economic indicators have historically led this market — tap one to see it shifted forward by its lead time, overlaid on the value line.
Gold (futures) leads by about 17 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.77). Shown shifted forward 17 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Nonfarm Payrolls (jobs) leads by about 11 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.71). Shown shifted forward 11 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Effective Fed Funds Rate leads by about 15 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.68). Shown shifted forward 15 months so its turns line up with the market's.
2-Year Treasury Yield leads by about 18 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.66). Shown shifted forward 18 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Case-Shiller National Home Price leads by about 9 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.66). Shown shifted forward 9 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Porsche 718 Boxster/Cayman Spyder┄ Case-Shiller National Home Price, shifted +9mo
LVMH (luxury proxy ADR) leads by about 12 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.65). Shown shifted forward 12 months so its turns line up with the market's.
WTI Crude Oil leads by about 11 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.64). Shown shifted forward 11 months so its turns line up with the market's.
vin returned higher VIN relisted +$19,579 vs prior
price jump Median asking moved sharply (z=-29.3)
undisclosed title change VIN previously reported non-clean now listed clean/undisclosed
vin returned higher VIN relisted +$19,579 vs prior
vin returned lower VIN relisted $-8,095 vs prior
undisclosed title change VIN previously reported non-clean now listed clean/undisclosed
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.