Showing appreciation momentum: +45% vs 12-mo avg, and sale prices +3.9%/mo.
What It's Actually Worth
Blended value of a standard 18 yr, 35k mi example, ~$35.2K now. The green line weighs confirmed auction sales most heavily (the amber dots — what cars actually hammered for), blends in fast-selling "just-missed" listings, and lightly smooths out month-to-month composition noise.
Each faint amber line is a forecast we would have made at that point in the past (12-mo horizon), drawn against what actually happened (blue). Over 13 scored forecasts: 85% got the direction right, median value error ±20%.
━ actual╱ past predictions (ghosts)
Walk-forward: each ghost uses only data available at that date — no hindsight. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Where We Think It's Headed
Probability and range, not a single number. Wider = less certain (not bigger gains).
Horizon
Direction
Probability
Confidence
Past accuracy
6 mo
DOWN
40%
Low
68%
12 mo
UP
65%
Low
85%
24 mo
UP
71%
Low
100%
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Crystal Ball — What Leading Indicators Signal
Distinct from the trend forecast above: this blends all 8 leading indicators (each at its own lead time, de-duplicated so correlated ones don't double-count) into one signal. Leading indicators are collectively signaling higher over the next ~12 months (moderate conviction — 49% of weighted drivers agree), driven mainly by Effective Fed Funds Rate and Housing Starts, though Gold (futures) points the other way.
Trend and leading indicators agree — both point up. Higher-conviction read.
Are the indicators agreeing?
Each bar is one driver's current push; longer = more weight. All one side = high conviction; split = low.
If You’d Bought in 2017
$100K invested 2017-04 → today (9.4 yrs), this car vs where else you could've put the money. Rebased to 100 at the start; the dashed line is inflation (break-even).
━ This car $57.4K━ S&P 500 $380K━ Gold $345K━ Luxury $276K━ Housing $179K₿ Bitcoin ×58 (off-scale)
Lost ground to inflation. The Cadillac XLR-V roughly 0.6×'d your money (a real 58% LOSS to inflation). It LAGGED the stock market by about 85% — the same money in the S&P 500 would be larger. It trailed housing (-68%). (Price only — a real round-trip also loses ~10–20% to buy/sell fees and carrying costs.)
Specialty-car prices don't move in a vacuum. These economic indicators have historically led this market — tap one to see it shifted forward by its lead time, overlaid on the value line.
LVMH (luxury proxy ADR) leads by about 20 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.89). Shown shifted forward 20 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Gold (futures) leads by about 24 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.88). Shown shifted forward 24 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Cadillac XLR-V┄ Gold (futures), shifted +24mo
Advance Retail Sales leads by about 17 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.88). Shown shifted forward 17 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Dow Jones Industrial leads by about 13 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.87). Shown shifted forward 13 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Cadillac XLR-V┄ Dow Jones Industrial, shifted +13mo
Case-Shiller National Home Price leads by about 17 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.87). Shown shifted forward 17 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Cadillac XLR-V┄ Case-Shiller National Home Price, shifted +17mo
PCE Price Index leads by about 24 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.87). Shown shifted forward 24 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Cadillac XLR-V┄ PCE Price Index, shifted +24mo
S&P 500 leads by about 14 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.87). Shown shifted forward 14 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Cadillac XLR-V┄ S&P 500, shifted +14mo
CPI (All Urban Consumers) leads by about 18 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.87). Shown shifted forward 18 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.