Flagged undervalued because sell-through 93%, and -33% vs 2-yr avg.
What It's Actually Worth
Blended value of a standard 18 yr, 35k mi example, ~$35.7K now. The green line weighs confirmed auction sales most heavily (the amber dots — what cars actually hammered for), blends in fast-selling "just-missed" listings, and lightly smooths out month-to-month composition noise.
Each faint amber line is a forecast we would have made at that point in the past (12-mo horizon), drawn against what actually happened (blue). Over 17 scored forecasts: 65% got the direction right, median value error ±37%.
━ actual╱ past predictions (ghosts)
Walk-forward: each ghost uses only data available at that date — no hindsight. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Auction Scorecard live
Live now — calling it before the gavel
We're currently tracking 2 open auctions in this market. Here's our predicted hammer range for each — check back after they close.
Closes
Car
Source
Our predicted range
open
2006 · 109k mi
classic
$11.9K–$40.8K ($22.0K)
open
2008 · 43k mi
hemmings
$13.3K–$47.0K ($25.0K)
No-lookahead: predictions are made before each auction closes; the scorecard grades confirmed sold auctions only (no-sales excluded). A modeled estimate, not a guarantee. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Where We Think It's Headed
Probability and range, not a single number. Wider = less certain (not bigger gains).
Horizon
Direction
Probability
Confidence
Past accuracy
6 mo
UP
56%
Low
57%
12 mo
UP
60%
Low
65%
24 mo
UP
64%
Low
80%
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Crystal Ball — What Leading Indicators Signal
Distinct from the trend forecast above: this blends all 8 leading indicators (each at its own lead time, de-duplicated so correlated ones don't double-count) into one signal. Leading indicators are collectively signaling lower over the next ~12 months (high conviction — 77% of weighted drivers agree), driven mainly by LVMH (luxury proxy ADR) and Ethereum (USD), though Advance Retail Sales points the other way.
⚠ The price trend and leading indicators disagree — momentum may be running ahead of the fundamentals.
Are the indicators agreeing?
Each bar is one driver's current push; longer = more weight. All one side = high conviction; split = low.
If You’d Bought in 2017
$100K invested 2017-04 → today (9.3 yrs), this car vs where else you could've put the money. Rebased to 100 at the start; the dashed line is inflation (break-even).
━ This car $59.0K━ S&P 500 $384K━ Gold $353K━ Luxury $307K━ Housing $178K₿ Bitcoin ×47 (off-scale)
Lost ground to inflation. The Cadillac XLR-V roughly 0.6×'d your money (a real 57% LOSS to inflation). It LAGGED the stock market by about 85% — the same money in the S&P 500 would be larger. It trailed housing (-67%). (Price only — a real round-trip also loses ~10–20% to buy/sell fees and carrying costs.)
Specialty-car prices don't move in a vacuum. These economic indicators have historically led this market — tap one to see it shifted forward by its lead time, overlaid on the value line.
LVMH (luxury proxy ADR) leads by about 13 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.85). Shown shifted forward 13 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Case-Shiller National Home Price leads by about 17 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.84). Shown shifted forward 17 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Cadillac XLR-V┄ Case-Shiller National Home Price, shifted +17mo
Advance Retail Sales leads by about 16 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.80). Shown shifted forward 16 months so its turns line up with the market's.
PCE Price Index leads by about 24 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.79). Shown shifted forward 24 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Cadillac XLR-V┄ PCE Price Index, shifted +24mo
CPI (All Urban Consumers) leads by about 2 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.79). Shown shifted forward 2 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Core CPI (ex food/energy) leads by about 23 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.79). Shown shifted forward 23 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Cadillac XLR-V┄ Core CPI (ex food/energy), shifted +23mo
Real Disposable Income per Capita leads by about 6 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.78). Shown shifted forward 6 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Cadillac XLR-V┄ Real Disposable Income per Capita, shifted +6mo
M2 Money Supply leads by about 23 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.77). Shown shifted forward 23 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Cadillac XLR-V┄ M2 Money Supply, shifted +23mo
Why We Think This
Appreciation Momentum
50
Undervaluation
54
Liquidity
45
Speculation Opportunity
55
Depreciation Risk
49
Overvaluation
53
sell-through 93%sell through rate
-33% vs 2-yr avgpct vs trailing 24mo
-19% vs 3-yr trendpct vs trailing 36mo
-39% vs 12-mo avgpct vs trailing 12mo
sale prices +0.6%/momedian sale trend slope
72 days on marketmedian days on market
new-listing velocity 3% of activenew listing velocity
vin returned higher VIN relisted +$19,244 vs prior
vin returned higher VIN relisted +$19,244 vs prior
vin returned higher VIN relisted +$19,244 vs prior
vin returned higher VIN relisted +$19,244 vs prior
vin returned higher VIN relisted +$19,621 vs prior
vin returned higher VIN relisted +$19,621 vs prior
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.