Tracking 1 sale in the last 90 days. We'll publish a confident 12-month outlook once 4 more sales close — at this market's typical pace, that's roughly ~2.7 years.
What It's Actually Worth
Blended value of a standard 10 yr, 1k mi example, ~$5.2K now. The green line weighs confirmed auction sales most heavily (the amber dots — what cars actually hammered for), blends in fast-selling "just-missed" listings, and lightly smooths out month-to-month composition noise.
Building historyNot enough data to chart yet — check back as sales accrue.
We're currently tracking 8 open auctions in this market. Here's our predicted hammer range for each — check back after they close.
Closes
Car
Source
Our predicted range
open
2011 · 79k mi
ebay
$2.7K–$9.8K ($5.2K)
open
2012 · 50k mi
ebay
$2.7K–$9.8K ($5.2K)
open
2012 · 52k mi
classic
$5.6K–$20.2K ($10.6K)
open
2011 · 152k mi
classic
$5.6K–$20.0K ($10.6K)
open
2009 · 40k mi
classic
$5.6K–$20.0K ($10.6K)
open
2006 · 75k mi
classic
$5.6K–$20.0K ($10.6K)
open
2003 · 45k mi
classic
$5.6K–$20.0K ($10.6K)
open
2005 · 95k mi
classic
$6.0K–$21.2K ($11.3K)
No-lookahead: predictions are made before each auction closes; the scorecard grades confirmed sold auctions only (no-sales excluded). A modeled estimate, not a guarantee. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Lead Indicator Forecast
Some indicators move before this market does. Effective Fed Funds Rate has historically led it by about 12 months — so its recent move implies where prices head next (dashed). The solid green line is actual value through today; the shaded path is what the lead implies.
BECAUSE Effective Fed Funds Rate fell 16%. THEREFORE, given its usual 12-month head start, we expect little change — about 0% over the next 12 months. Confidence: Moderate (correlation +0.74, 22 months overlap).
If You’d Bought in 2009
$100K invested 2009-03 → today (17.5 yrs), this car vs where else you could've put the money. Rebased to 100 at the start; the dashed line is inflation (break-even).
━ This car $25.0K━ S&P 500 $1154K━ Gold $474K━ Luxury $1486K━ Housing $230K
Lost ground to inflation. The Mercedes-Benz CL-Class roughly 0.3×'d your money (a real 84% LOSS to inflation). It LAGGED the stock market by about 98% — the same money in the S&P 500 would be larger. It trailed housing (-89%). (Price only — a real round-trip also loses ~10–20% to buy/sell fees and carrying costs.)
Specialty-car prices don't move in a vacuum. These economic indicators have historically led this market — tap one to see it shifted forward by its lead time, overlaid on the value line.
Effective Fed Funds Rate leads by about 12 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.74). Shown shifted forward 12 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Housing Starts leads by about 11 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.67). Shown shifted forward 11 months so its turns line up with the market's.
2-Year Treasury Yield leads by about 21 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.65). Shown shifted forward 21 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Unemployment Rate leads by about 7 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.64). Shown shifted forward 7 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Initial Jobless Claims leads by about 10 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.63). Shown shifted forward 10 months so its turns line up with the market's.
10Y-2Y Yield Spread leads by about 2 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.63). Shown shifted forward 2 months so its turns line up with the market's.
US Metro Mean Temperature leads by about 4 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.61). Shown shifted forward 4 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Mercedes-Benz CL-Class┄ US Metro Mean Temperature, shifted +4mo
Housing Starts leads by about 7 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.60). Shown shifted forward 7 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
