Tracking 8 sales in the last 90 days — the modeled signal will appear here on the next nightly rebuild.
What It's Actually Worth
Blended value of a standard 39 yr, 28k mi example, ~$43.2K now. The green line weighs confirmed auction sales most heavily (the amber dots — what cars actually hammered for), blends in fast-selling "just-missed" listings, and lightly smooths out month-to-month composition noise.
Each faint amber line is a forecast we would have made at that point in the past (12-mo horizon), drawn against what actually happened (blue). Over 105 scored forecasts: 61% got the direction right, median value error ±45%.
━ actual╱ past predictions (ghosts)
Walk-forward: each ghost uses only data available at that date — no hindsight. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Crystal Ball — What Leading Indicators Signal
Distinct from the trend forecast above: this blends all 8 leading indicators (each at its own lead time, de-duplicated so correlated ones don't double-count) into one signal. Leading indicators are collectively signaling higher over the next ~12 months (low conviction — 16% of weighted drivers agree), driven mainly by Ethereum (USD) and U. Michigan Consumer Sentiment, though Ethereum (USD) points the other way.
Trend and leading indicators agree — both point up. Higher-conviction read.
Are the indicators agreeing?
Each bar is one driver's current push; longer = more weight. All one side = high conviction; split = low.
If You’d Bought in 2003
$100K invested 2003-05 → today (23.2 yrs), this car vs where else you could've put the money. Rebased to 100 at the start; the dashed line is inflation (break-even).
━ This car $109K━ Housing $250K
Lost ground to inflation. The Aston Martin Lagonda roughly 1.1×'d your money (a real 40% LOSS to inflation). It trailed housing (-56%). (Price only — a real round-trip also loses ~10–20% to buy/sell fees and carrying costs.)
Specialty-car prices don't move in a vacuum. These economic indicators have historically led this market — tap one to see it shifted forward by its lead time, overlaid on the value line.
Advance Retail Sales leads by about 1 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.83). Shown shifted forward 1 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Aston Martin Lagonda┄ Advance Retail Sales, shifted +1mo
M2 Money Supply leads by about 1 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.83). Shown shifted forward 1 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Aston Martin Lagonda┄ M2 Money Supply, shifted +1mo
CPI (All Urban Consumers) leads by about 2 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.82). Shown shifted forward 2 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Aston Martin Lagonda┄ CPI (All Urban Consumers), shifted +2mo
PCE Price Index leads by about 0 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.82). Shown shifted forward 0 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Aston Martin Lagonda┄ PCE Price Index, shifted +0mo
Core CPI (ex food/energy) leads by about 16 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.82). Shown shifted forward 16 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Aston Martin Lagonda┄ Core CPI (ex food/energy), shifted +16mo
Real Disposable Income per Capita leads by about 9 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.82). Shown shifted forward 9 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Aston Martin Lagonda┄ Real Disposable Income per Capita, shifted +9mo
Consumer Discretionary ETF (XLY) leads by about 4 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.81). Shown shifted forward 4 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Aston Martin Lagonda┄ Consumer Discretionary ETF (XLY), shifted +4mo
Dow Jones Industrial leads by about 3 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.81). Shown shifted forward 3 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Aston Martin Lagonda┄ Dow Jones Industrial, shifted +3mo
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.