Jaguar XJS
Flagged undervalued because -30% vs 2-yr avg, -28% vs 3-yr trend, inventory +0%, and sell-through 98%.
What It's Actually Worth
Blended value of a standard 32 yr, 62k mi example, ~$12.7K now. The green line weighs confirmed auction sales most heavily (the amber dots — what cars actually hammered for), blends in fast-selling "just-missed" listings, and lightly smooths out month-to-month composition noise.
Did our model work? 48% direction calls right
Each faint amber line is a forecast we would have made at that point in the past (12-mo horizon), drawn against what actually happened (blue). Over 125 scored forecasts: 48% got the direction right, median value error ±43%.
Walk-forward: each ghost uses only data available at that date — no hindsight. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Auction Scorecard gavel in range 8 in 10
We replayed 616 past auctions in this market — predicting each hammer price from market data before the sale (no hindsight). Typical miss: ±29%; the gavel landed inside our predicted range 8 in 10 of the time, and we lean slightly high on average.
| Sold | Car | Our range | Hammer | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-29 | 1989 · 66k mi | $6.4K–$23.6K | $13.0K | ✓ |
| 2026-06-26 | 1994 · 62k mi | $6.7K–$24.5K | $9.3K | ✓ |
| 2026-06-25 | 1996 · 47k mi | $7.5K–$27.4K | $24.2K | ✓ |
| 2026-06-25 | 1989 · 91k mi | $5.0K–$18.4K | $15.8K | ✓ |
| 2026-06-25 | 1993 · 74k mi | $5.9K–$21.7K | $6.8K | ✓ |
| 2026-06-23 | 1996 · 63k mi | $6.6K–$24.3K | $12.5K | ✓ |
| 2026-06-22 | 1990 · 76k mi | $5.8K–$21.3K | $10.3K | ✓ |
| 2026-06-19 | 1990 · 60k mi | $6.8K–$24.8K | $17.9K | ✓ |
Live now — calling it before the gavel
We're currently tracking 8 open auctions in this market. Here's our predicted hammer range for each — check back after they close.
| Closes | Car | Source | Our predicted range |
|---|---|---|---|
| open | 1995 · 68k mi | classic | $5.1K–$27.5K ($11.8K) |
| open | 1986 · 77k mi | ebay | $4.7K–$25.0K ($10.8K) |
| open | 1986 · 51k mi | classic | $5.9K–$31.8K ($13.7K) |
| open | 1986 · 60k mi | ebay | $5.5K–$29.6K ($12.8K) |
| open | 1995 · 68k mi | ebay | $5.1K–$27.4K ($11.8K) |
| open | 1994 · 56k mi | ebay | $5.7K–$30.7K ($13.2K) |
| open | 1995 · 57k mi | classic | $5.7K–$30.6K ($13.2K) |
| open | 1996 · 64k mi | classic | $5.4K–$28.9K ($12.5K) |
No-lookahead: predictions are made before each auction closes; the scorecard grades confirmed sold auctions only (no-sales excluded). A modeled estimate, not a guarantee. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Where We Think It's Headed
Probability and range, not a single number. Wider = less certain (not bigger gains).
| Horizon | Direction | Probability | Confidence | Past accuracy |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 mo | UP | 50% | Low | 57% |
| 12 mo | UP | 51% | Low | 48% |
| 24 mo | UP | 52% | Low | 51% |
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Lead Indicator Forecast
Some indicators move before this market does. High-Yield Bond Spread has historically led it by about 4 months — so its recent move implies where prices head next (dashed). The solid green line is actual value through today; the shaded path is what the lead implies.
Crystal Ball — What Leading Indicators Signal
Distinct from the trend forecast above: this blends all 7 leading indicators (each at its own lead time, de-duplicated so correlated ones don't double-count) into one signal. Leading indicators are collectively signaling lower over the next ~12 months (low conviction — 32% of weighted drivers agree), driven mainly by Ethereum (USD) and 10Y-2Y Yield Spread, though Ethereum (USD) points the other way.
Are the indicators agreeing?
Each bar is one driver's current push; longer = more weight. All one side = high conviction; split = low.
If You’d Bought in 2002
$100K invested 2002-01 → today (24.5 yrs), this car vs where else you could've put the money. Rebased to 100 at the start; the dashed line is inflation (break-even).
What This Market Follows
Specialty-car prices don't move in a vacuum. These economic indicators have historically led this market — tap one to see it shifted forward by its lead time, overlaid on the value line.
High-Yield Bond Spread leads by about 4 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.75). Shown shifted forward 4 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Why We Think This
Current Inventory Snapshot
Comparable Markets
| Market | Undervaluation | Appreciation | Liquidity |
|---|---|---|---|
| Alfa Romeo 105 Sedan | 93 | 93 | 17 |
| Mercedes-Benz 190SL | 38 | 43 | 39 |
| BMW 2002 tii | 46 | 74 | 20 |
| Datsun 240Z | 41 | 56 | 38 |
| Datsun 280Z | 32 | 66 | 60 |
| Ferrari 308 | 38 | 64 | 34 |
| Ferrari 308 GT4 | 51 | 54 | 26 |
| Ferrari 328 | 58 | 46 | 42 |
Recent Signals & Alerts
- vin returned higher VIN relisted +$3,750 vs prior
- vin returned lower VIN relisted $-3,750 vs prior
- price jump Median asking moved sharply (z=-7.4)
- vin returned higher VIN relisted +$4,000 vs prior
- vin returned lower VIN relisted $-5,500 vs prior
- price jump Median asking moved sharply (z=-15.5)
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.