Ferrari 308
The Ferrari 308 market displays an overvaluation score of 64.48 and a liquidity score of 45.8, with a short-term 6-month outlook pointing up with a probability of 0.5 in a volatile regime. However, the 12-month and 24-month outlooks both indicate a down direction, with probabilities of 0.49 and 0.48 respectively, also within volatile regimes; the High-Yield Bond Spread, exhibiting a correlation of -0.68 over 19 months, stands out as a strong leading indicator.
What It's Actually Worth
Blended value of a standard 45 yr, 35k mi example, ~$78.7K now. The green line weighs confirmed auction sales most heavily (the amber dots — what cars actually hammered for), blends in fast-selling "just-missed" listings, and lightly smooths out month-to-month composition noise.
Did our model work? 51% direction calls right
Each faint amber line is a forecast we would have made at that point in the past (12-mo horizon), drawn against what actually happened (blue). Over 119 scored forecasts: 51% got the direction right, median value error ±24%.
Walk-forward: each ghost uses only data available at that date — no hindsight. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Auction Scorecard gavel in range 9 in 10
We replayed 357 past auctions in this market — predicting each hammer price from market data before the sale (no hindsight). Typical miss: ±24%; the gavel landed inside our predicted range 9 in 10 of the time.
| Sold | Car | Our range | Hammer | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-14 | 1978 · 12k mi | $59.1K–$318K | $229K | ✓ |
| 2026-09-22 | 1985 · 60k mi | $41.7K–$154K | $90.0K | ✓ |
| 2026-09-18 | 1984 · 40k mi | $44.4K–$163K | $90.0K | ✓ |
| 2026-09-18 | 1979 · 46k mi | $43.5K–$160K | $61.2K | ✓ |
| 2026-09-17 | 1982 · 29k mi | $48.7K–$179K | $86.7K | ✓ |
| 2026-09-12 | 1978 · 24k mi | $51.8K–$191K | $92.0K | ✓ |
| 2026-09-01 | 1981 · 60k mi | $41.7K–$154K | $35.8K | ✗ |
| 2026-08-25 | 1985 · 60k mi | $40.4K–$149K | $102K | ✓ |
Live now — calling it before the gavel
We're currently tracking 8 open auctions in this market. Here's our predicted hammer range for each — check back after they close.
| Closes | Car | Source | Our predicted range |
|---|---|---|---|
| open | 1980 · 61k mi | hemmings | $33.8K–$184K ($78.9K) |
| open | 1976 · 17k mi | classic | $50.8K–$273K ($118K) |
| open | 1984 · 26k mi | classic | $44.8K–$240K ($104K) |
| open | 1978 · 62k mi | classic | $37.7K–$202K ($87.3K) |
| open | 1980 · 42k mi | classic | $39.7K–$213K ($92.0K) |
| open | 1983 · 37k mi | classic | $40.3K–$217K ($93.5K) |
| open | 1985 · 16k mi | classic | $42.0K–$226K ($97.4K) |
| open | 1983 · 24k mi | classic | $37.1K–$199K ($86.0K) |
No-lookahead: predictions are made before each auction closes; the scorecard grades confirmed sold auctions only (no-sales excluded). A modeled estimate, not a guarantee. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Where We Think It's Headed
Probability and range, not a single number. Wider = less certain (not bigger gains).
| Horizon | Direction | Probability | Confidence | Past accuracy |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 mo | UP | 50% | Low | 66% |
| 12 mo | DOWN | 49% | Low | 51% |
| 24 mo | DOWN | 48% | Low | 53% |
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Lead Indicator Forecast
Some indicators move before this market does. Effective Fed Funds Rate has historically led it by about 15 months — so its recent move implies where prices head next (dashed). The solid green line is actual value through today; the shaded path is what the lead implies.
Crystal Ball — What Leading Indicators Signal
Distinct from the trend forecast above: this blends all 8 leading indicators (each at its own lead time, de-duplicated so correlated ones don't double-count) into one signal. Leading indicators are collectively signaling higher over the next ~12 months (high conviction — 76% of weighted drivers agree), driven mainly by Effective Fed Funds Rate and M2 Money Supply, though WTI Crude Oil points the other way.
Are the indicators agreeing?
Each bar is one driver's current push; longer = more weight. All one side = high conviction; split = low.
If You’d Bought in 2010
$100K invested 2010-03 → today (16.6 yrs), this car vs where else you could've put the money. Rebased to 100 at the start; the dashed line is inflation (break-even).
What This Market Follows
Specialty-car prices don't move in a vacuum. These economic indicators have historically led this market — tap one to see it shifted forward by its lead time, overlaid on the value line.
Effective Fed Funds Rate leads by about 15 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.47). Shown shifted forward 15 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Why We Think This
Current Inventory Snapshot
Comparable Markets
| Market | Undervaluation | Appreciation | Liquidity |
|---|---|---|---|
| Alfa Romeo 105 Sedan | 86 | 21 | 27 |
| Mercedes-Benz 190SL | 52 | 42 | 53 |
| BMW 2002 tii | 49 | 36 | 12 |
| Datsun 240Z | 48 | 64 | 35 |
| Datsun 280Z | 61 | 28 | 51 |
| Ferrari 308 GT4 | 55 | 48 | 11 |
| Ferrari 328 | 46 | 54 | 41 |
| Porsche 356 Carrera | 57 | 12 | 60 |
Recent Signals & Alerts
- vin returned higher VIN relisted +$48,000 vs prior
- vin returned lower VIN relisted $-44,680 vs prior
- vin returned higher VIN relisted +$48,000 vs prior
- vin returned lower VIN relisted $-44,680 vs prior
- vin returned higher VIN relisted +$42,000 vs prior
- vin returned lower VIN relisted $-44,680 vs prior
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.