Blended value of a standard 48 yr, 45k mi example, ~$46.0K now. The green line weighs confirmed auction sales most heavily (the amber dots — what cars actually hammered for), blends in fast-selling "just-missed" listings, and lightly smooths out month-to-month composition noise.
◫ 88 confirmed sales·60 months tracked·since 2021-07·14 active listings
Did our model work? 70% direction calls right
Each faint amber line is a forecast we would have made at that point in the past (12-mo horizon), drawn against what actually happened (blue). Over 23 scored forecasts: 70% got the direction right, median value error ±29%.
━ actual╱ past predictions (ghosts)
Walk-forward: each ghost uses only data available at that date — no hindsight. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Auction Scorecard gavel in range 9 in 10
We replayed 64 past auctions in this market — predicting each hammer price from market data before the sale (no hindsight). Typical miss: ±29%; the gavel landed inside our predicted range 9 in 10 of the time, and we lean slightly low on average.
Sold
Car
Our range
Hammer
2026-05-15
1975 · 37k mi
$22.3K–$79.7K
$96.7K
✗
2026-05-14
1975 · 53k mi
$24.2K–$86.5K
$62.5K
✓
2026-05-13
1976 · 56k mi
$24.6K–$88.0K
$43.7K
✓
2026-03-21
1978 · 68k mi
$26.1K–$93.2K
$61.0K
✓
2026-03-21
1978 · 68k mi
$22.5K–$119K
$61.0K
✓
2026-03-15
1975 · 15k mi
$25.8K–$92.0K
$66.6K
✓
2025-12-06
1975 · 49k mi
$29.2K–$104K
$36.3K
✓
2025-12-03
1976 · 39k mi
$27.4K–$98.1K
$45.3K
✓
Live now — calling it before the gavel
We're currently tracking 7 open auctions in this market. Here's our predicted hammer range for each — check back after they close.
Closes
Car
Source
Our predicted range
open
1979 · 48k mi
classic
$21.0K–$111K ($48.2K)
open
1977 · 32k mi
classic
$20.8K–$110K ($47.8K)
open
1977 · 32k mi
classic
$20.8K–$110K ($47.8K)
open
1978
classic
$20.6K–$109K ($47.3K)
open
1975
classic
$20.6K–$109K ($47.3K)
open
1975 · 24k mi
classic
$22.0K–$116K ($50.6K)
open
1979 · 27k mi
classic
$21.7K–$115K ($49.9K)
No-lookahead: predictions are made before each auction closes; the scorecard grades confirmed sold auctions only (no-sales excluded). A modeled estimate, not a guarantee. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Where We Think It's Headed
Probability and range, not a single number. Wider = less certain (not bigger gains).
Horizon
Direction
Probability
Confidence
Past accuracy
6 mo
FLAT
50%
Low
62%
12 mo
UP
51%
Low
70%
24 mo
UP
53%
Low
64%
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Lead Indicator Forecast
Some indicators move before this market does. Silver has historically led it by about 2 months — so its recent move implies where prices head next (dashed). The solid green line is actual value through today; the shaded path is what the lead implies.
BECAUSE Silver fell 3%. THEREFORE, given its usual 2-month head start, we lean DOWN — about −1% (≈ −$433) over the next 2 months. Confidence: Moderate (correlation +0.60, 25 months overlap).
If You’d Bought in 2021
$100K invested 2021-07 → today (4.9 yrs), this car vs where else you could've put the money. Rebased to 100 at the start; the dashed line is inflation (break-even).
━ This car $127K━ S&P 500 $189K━ Gold $251K━ Luxury $82.0K━ Housing $124K₿ Bitcoin $166K (off-scale)
Roughly tracked inflation — flat in real terms. The Ferrari 308 GT4 roughly 1.3×'d your money (a real, inflation-adjusted 1.0× gain). It LAGGED the stock market by about 32% — the same money in the S&P 500 would be larger. It beat housing (+3%). (Price only — a real round-trip also loses ~10–20% to buy/sell fees and carrying costs.)
Specialty-car prices don't move in a vacuum. These economic indicators have historically led this market — tap one to see it shifted forward by its lead time, overlaid on the value line.
Silver leads by about 2 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.60). Shown shifted forward 2 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Ferrari 308 GT4┄ Silver, shifted +2mo
Russell 2000 (small cap) leads by about 11 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.53). Shown shifted forward 11 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Ferrari 308 GT4┄ Russell 2000 (small cap), shifted +11mo
Ethereum (USD) leads by about 6 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.51). Shown shifted forward 6 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Ferrari 308 GT4┄ Ethereum (USD), shifted +6mo
WTI Crude Oil leads by about 18 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.50). Shown shifted forward 18 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Ferrari 308 GT4┄ WTI Crude Oil, shifted +18mo
Unemployment Rate leads by about 20 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.48). Shown shifted forward 20 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Ferrari 308 GT4┄ Unemployment Rate, shifted +20mo
Unemployment Rate leads by about 5 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.47). Shown shifted forward 5 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Ferrari 308 GT4┄ Unemployment Rate, shifted +5mo
Housing Starts leads by about 13 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.47). Shown shifted forward 13 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Ferrari 308 GT4┄ Housing Starts, shifted +13mo
Nasdaq Composite leads by about 6 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.46). Shown shifted forward 6 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Ferrari 308 GT4┄ Nasdaq Composite, shifted +6mo
Why We Think This
Appreciation Momentum
61
Undervaluation
41
Liquidity
23
Speculation Opportunity
50
Depreciation Risk
64
Overvaluation
86
asking +26% vs historic soldasking vs historic spread
+17% vs 3-yr trendpct vs trailing 36mo
+16% vs 2-yr avgpct vs trailing 24mo
+15% vs 12-mo avgpct vs trailing 12mo
sale prices +0.7%/momedian sale trend slope
sell-through 100%sell through rate
254 days on marketmedian days on market
new-listing velocity 0% of activenew listing velocity
Current Inventory Snapshot
Active priced listings14
Median fair value$61,243
Avg deal score62/100
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.