Ferrari 308 GT4
The Ferrari 308 GT4 market signals a high overvaluation of 87.67 and a substantial depreciation risk of 77.52, compounded by very low liquidity at 15.15. Despite this, forecasts indicate an upward trend with probabilities ranging from 0.51 to 0.55 across 6, 12, and 24-month horizons, within a volatile regime. This outlook, backed by a high confidence of 0.935, identifies Silver as the strongest leading indicator with a 0.6 correlation at a 2-month lead.
What It's Actually Worth
Blended value of a standard 49 yr, 46k mi example, ~$51.8K now. The green line weighs confirmed auction sales most heavily (the amber dots — what cars actually hammered for), blends in fast-selling "just-missed" listings, and lightly smooths out month-to-month composition noise.
Did our model work? 53% direction calls right
Each faint amber line is a forecast we would have made at that point in the past (12-mo horizon), drawn against what actually happened (blue). Over 38 scored forecasts: 53% got the direction right, median value error ±58%.
Walk-forward: each ghost uses only data available at that date — no hindsight. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Auction Scorecard gavel in range 9 in 10
We replayed 76 past auctions in this market — predicting each hammer price from market data before the sale (no hindsight). Typical miss: ±26%; the gavel landed inside our predicted range 9 in 10 of the time, and we lean slightly low on average.
| Sold | Car | Our range | Hammer | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-17 | 1978 · 82k mi | $24.0K–$88.2K | $52.5K | ✓ |
| 2026-08-04 | 1977 · 44k mi | $24.3K–$89.4K | $62.0K | ✓ |
| 2026-08-04 | 1975 · 49k mi | $24.5K–$90.0K | $61.0K | ✓ |
| 2026-07-16 | 1978 · 9k mi | $26.1K–$96.3K | $67.0K | ✓ |
| 2026-07-09 | 1979 · 32k mi | $23.7K–$87.2K | $40.0K | ✓ |
| 2026-07-02 | 1975 · 8k mi | $27.1K–$99.9K | $24.0K | ✗ |
| 2026-06-15 | 1978 · 18k mi | $22.2K–$81.9K | $56.8K | ✓ |
| 2026-06-10 | 1975 · 46k mi | $22.2K–$81.8K | $58.0K | ✓ |
Live now — calling it before the gavel
We're currently tracking 7 open auctions in this market. Here's our predicted hammer range for each — check back after they close.
| Closes | Car | Source | Our predicted range |
|---|---|---|---|
| open | 1979 · 48k mi | classic | $21.0K–$111K ($48.2K) |
| open | 1977 · 32k mi | classic | $20.8K–$110K ($47.8K) |
| open | 1977 · 32k mi | classic | $20.8K–$110K ($47.8K) |
| open | 1978 | classic | $20.6K–$109K ($47.3K) |
| open | 1975 | classic | $20.6K–$109K ($47.3K) |
| open | 1975 · 24k mi | classic | $22.0K–$116K ($50.6K) |
| open | 1979 · 27k mi | classic | $21.7K–$115K ($49.9K) |
No-lookahead: predictions are made before each auction closes; the scorecard grades confirmed sold auctions only (no-sales excluded). A modeled estimate, not a guarantee. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Where We Think It's Headed
Probability and range, not a single number. Wider = less certain (not bigger gains).
| Horizon | Direction | Probability | Confidence | Past accuracy |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 mo | UP | 51% | Low | 68% |
| 12 mo | UP | 53% | Low | 53% |
| 24 mo | UP | 55% | Low | 50% |
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Lead Indicator Forecast
Some indicators move before this market does. 10Y-2Y Yield Spread has historically led it by about 16 months — so its recent move implies where prices head next (dashed). The solid green line is actual value through today; the shaded path is what the lead implies.
If You’d Bought in 2013
$100K invested 2013-06 → today (13.3 yrs), this car vs where else you could've put the money. Rebased to 100 at the start; the dashed line is inflation (break-even).
What This Market Follows
Specialty-car prices don't move in a vacuum. These economic indicators have historically led this market — tap one to see it shifted forward by its lead time, overlaid on the value line.
10Y-2Y Yield Spread leads by about 16 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.54). Shown shifted forward 16 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Why We Think This
Current Inventory Snapshot
Recent Signals & Alerts
- price jump Median asking moved sharply (z=6.8)
- price jump Median asking moved sharply (z=6.8)
- price jump Median asking moved sharply (z=-6.8)
- price jump Median asking moved sharply (z=-43.4)
- price jump Median asking moved sharply (z=45.3)
- price jump Median asking moved sharply (z=-43.4)
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.