BMW 2002 tii
Due to the thin data state, this market outlook for the BMW 2002 tii is low-confidence. The market scores 81.74 for overvaluation and 76.67 for depreciation risk, with liquidity at 14.77, while forecasts indicate a volatile upward direction with probabilities between 0.52 and 0.54. Real Disposable Income per Capita, showing a 0.75 correlation with an 8-month lead, is the strongest leading indicator.
What It's Actually Worth
Blended value of a standard 52 yr, 50k mi example, ~$26.2K now. The green line weighs confirmed auction sales most heavily (the amber dots — what cars actually hammered for), blends in fast-selling "just-missed" listings, and lightly smooths out month-to-month composition noise.
Did our model work? 66% direction calls right
Each faint amber line is a forecast we would have made at that point in the past (12-mo horizon), drawn against what actually happened (blue). Over 67 scored forecasts: 66% got the direction right, median value error ±63%.
Walk-forward: each ghost uses only data available at that date — no hindsight. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Auction Scorecard gavel in range 8 in 10
We replayed 45 past auctions in this market — predicting each hammer price from market data before the sale (no hindsight). Typical miss: ±28%; the gavel landed inside our predicted range 8 in 10 of the time, and we lean slightly low on average.
| Sold | Car | Our range | Hammer | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-24 | 1973 · 52k mi | $15.9K–$58.5K | $21.4K | ✓ |
| 2026-08-06 | 1973 · 36k mi | $14.8K–$54.3K | $28.3K | ✓ |
| 2026-08-04 | 1974 · 92k mi | $14.4K–$53.0K | $8.8K | ✗ |
| 2026-07-14 | 1973 · 9k mi | $17.2K–$63.2K | $21.5K | ✓ |
| 2026-07-07 | 1974 · 75k mi | $15.7K–$58.0K | $40.8K | ✓ |
| 2026-06-27 | 1973 · 68k mi | $16.7K–$61.5K | $52.0K | ✓ |
| 2026-06-26 | 1973 · 56k mi | $16.8K–$61.8K | $20.0K | ✓ |
| 2026-06-23 | 1972 · 83k mi | $15.9K–$58.4K | $36.8K | ✓ |
Live now — calling it before the gavel
We're currently tracking 6 open auctions in this market. Here's our predicted hammer range for each — check back after they close.
| Closes | Car | Source | Our predicted range |
|---|---|---|---|
| open | 1972 · 81k mi | ebay | $11.2K–$61.2K ($26.2K) |
| open | 1973 · 46k mi | classic | $14.0K–$75.4K ($32.5K) |
| open | 1974 · 78k mi | classic | $15.3K–$82.3K ($35.5K) |
| open | 1974 · 100k mi | classic | $12.4K–$65.8K ($28.6K) |
| open | 1972 · 6k mi | classic | $15.7K–$83.0K ($36.1K) |
| open | 1972 · 81k mi | classic | $13.6K–$72.1K ($31.4K) |
No-lookahead: predictions are made before each auction closes; the scorecard grades confirmed sold auctions only (no-sales excluded). A modeled estimate, not a guarantee. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Where We Think It's Headed
Probability and range, not a single number. Wider = less certain (not bigger gains).
| Horizon | Direction | Probability | Confidence | Past accuracy |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 mo | UP | 52% | Low | 62% |
| 12 mo | UP | 53% | Low | 66% |
| 24 mo | UP | 54% | Low | 64% |
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Crystal Ball — What Leading Indicators Signal
Distinct from the trend forecast above: this blends all 8 leading indicators (each at its own lead time, de-duplicated so correlated ones don't double-count) into one signal. Leading indicators are collectively signaling lower over the next ~12 months (low conviction — 32% of weighted drivers agree), driven mainly by US Metro Mean Temperature and Housing Starts, though 30-Year Mortgage Rate points the other way.
Are the indicators agreeing?
Each bar is one driver's current push; longer = more weight. All one side = high conviction; split = low.
If You’d Bought in 2008
$100K invested 2008-03 → today (18.6 yrs), this car vs where else you could've put the money. Rebased to 100 at the start; the dashed line is inflation (break-even).
What This Market Follows
Specialty-car prices don't move in a vacuum. These economic indicators have historically led this market — tap one to see it shifted forward by its lead time, overlaid on the value line.
Real Disposable Income per Capita leads by about 23 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.56). Shown shifted forward 23 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Why We Think This
Current Inventory Snapshot
Comparable Markets
| Market | Undervaluation | Appreciation | Liquidity |
|---|---|---|---|
| Alfa Romeo 105 Sedan | 86 | 21 | 27 |
| Mercedes-Benz 190SL | 52 | 42 | 53 |
| Datsun 240Z | 48 | 64 | 35 |
| Datsun 280Z | 61 | 28 | 51 |
| Ferrari 308 | 45 | 55 | 44 |
| Ferrari 308 GT4 | 55 | 48 | 11 |
| Ferrari 328 | 46 | 54 | 41 |
| Porsche 356 Carrera | 57 | 12 | 60 |
Recent Signals & Alerts
- inventory spike Inventory spiked (robust z=4.0)
- inventory spike Inventory spiked (robust z=4.7)
- inventory spike Inventory spiked (robust z=3.4)
- inventory spike Inventory spiked (robust z=3.4)
- price jump Median asking moved sharply (z=8.6)
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.