Flagged undervalued because -36% vs 2-yr avg, -37% vs 3-yr trend, and inventory -0%.
What It's Actually Worth
Blended value of a standard 35 yr, 68k mi example, ~$8.6K now. The green line weighs confirmed auction sales most heavily (the amber dots — what cars actually hammered for), blends in fast-selling "just-missed" listings, and lightly smooths out month-to-month composition noise.
Each faint amber line is a forecast we would have made at that point in the past (12-mo horizon), drawn against what actually happened (blue). Over 124 scored forecasts: 63% got the direction right, median value error ±45%.
━ actual╱ past predictions (ghosts)
Walk-forward: each ghost uses only data available at that date — no hindsight. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Auction Scorecard live
Live now — calling it before the gavel
We're currently tracking 3 open auctions in this market. Here's our predicted hammer range for each — check back after they close.
Closes
Car
Source
Our predicted range
open
1989 · 72k mi
classic
$3.2K–$16.8K ($7.3K)
open
1984 · 53k mi
classic
$2.8K–$14.6K ($6.3K)
open
1992 · 72k mi
classic
$2.6K–$13.7K ($5.9K)
No-lookahead: predictions are made before each auction closes; the scorecard grades confirmed sold auctions only (no-sales excluded). A modeled estimate, not a guarantee. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Where We Think It's Headed
Probability and range, not a single number. Wider = less certain (not bigger gains).
Horizon
Direction
Probability
Confidence
Past accuracy
6 mo
UP
51%
Low
62%
12 mo
UP
52%
Low
63%
24 mo
UP
53%
Low
74%
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
If You’d Bought in 2006
$100K invested 2006-05 → today (20.3 yrs), this car vs where else you could've put the money. Rebased to 100 at the start; the dashed line is inflation (break-even).
━ This car $76.9K━ S&P 500 $866K━ Gold $680K━ Luxury $1177K━ Housing $183K
Lost ground to inflation. The Jaguar XJ Series 3 (1979-1992) roughly 0.8×'d your money (a real 54% LOSS to inflation). It LAGGED the stock market by about 91% — the same money in the S&P 500 would be larger. It trailed housing (-58%). (Price only — a real round-trip also loses ~10–20% to buy/sell fees and carrying costs.)
Specialty-car prices don't move in a vacuum. These economic indicators have historically led this market — tap one to see it shifted forward by its lead time, overlaid on the value line.
LVMH (luxury proxy ADR) leads by about 10 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.63). Shown shifted forward 10 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Russell 2000 (small cap) leads by about 24 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.63). Shown shifted forward 24 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Jaguar XJ Series 3 (1979-1992)┄ Russell 2000 (small cap), shifted +24mo
Consumer Discretionary ETF (XLY) leads by about 23 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.62). Shown shifted forward 23 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Dow Jones Industrial leads by about 8 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.62). Shown shifted forward 8 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Jaguar XJ Series 3 (1979-1992)┄ Dow Jones Industrial, shifted +8mo
M2 Money Supply leads by about 20 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.62). Shown shifted forward 20 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Nasdaq Composite leads by about 15 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.62). Shown shifted forward 15 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Jaguar XJ Series 3 (1979-1992)┄ Nasdaq Composite, shifted +15mo
S&P 500 leads by about 0 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.62). Shown shifted forward 0 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Jaguar XJ Series 3 (1979-1992)┄ S&P 500, shifted +0mo
Real Disposable Income per Capita leads by about 1 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.62). Shown shifted forward 1 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Jaguar XJ Series 3 (1979-1992)┄ Real Disposable Income per Capita, shifted +1mo
Why We Think This
Appreciation Momentum
50
Undervaluation
62
Liquidity
44
Speculation Opportunity
50
Depreciation Risk
60
Overvaluation
37
-36% vs 2-yr avgpct vs trailing 24mo
-37% vs 3-yr trendpct vs trailing 36mo
asking +18% vs historic soldasking vs historic spread
asking trend +0.3%/momedian asking trend slope
sale prices -1.1%/momedian sale trend slope
-4% vs 12-mo avgpct vs trailing 12mo
30% of listings cutting priceprice drop frequency
new-listing velocity 1% of activenew listing velocity
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.