Jaguar XF
Flagged undervalued because inventory -0%, -28% vs 3-yr trend, and -21% vs 2-yr avg.
What It's Actually Worth
Blended value of a standard 12 yr, 55k mi example, ~$11.7K now. The green line weighs confirmed auction sales most heavily (the amber dots — what cars actually hammered for), blends in fast-selling "just-missed" listings, and lightly smooths out month-to-month composition noise.
Did our model work? 45% direction calls right
Each faint amber line is a forecast we would have made at that point in the past (12-mo horizon), drawn against what actually happened (blue). Over 42 scored forecasts: 45% got the direction right, median value error ±31%.
Walk-forward: each ghost uses only data available at that date — no hindsight. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Auction Scorecard gavel in range 7 in 10
We replayed 112 past auctions in this market — predicting each hammer price from market data before the sale (no hindsight). Typical miss: ±33%; the gavel landed inside our predicted range 7 in 10 of the time, and we lean slightly high on average.
| Sold | Car | Our range | Hammer | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-03 | 2014 · 44k mi | $7.7K–$20.5K | $8.8K | ✓ |
| 2026-06-23 | 2014 · 44k mi | $8.1K–$21.6K | $11.8K | ✓ |
| 2026-06-17 | 2013 · 68k mi | $7.1K–$18.9K | $9.6K | ✓ |
| 2026-06-16 | 2018 · 87k mi | $6.0K–$16.1K | $21.3K | ✗ |
| 2026-06-16 | 2018 · 97k mi | $5.4K–$14.4K | $18.9K | ✗ |
| 2026-06-02 | 2011 · 17k mi | $9.0K–$24.0K | $15.0K | ✓ |
| 2026-05-12 | 2015 · 38k mi | $8.3K–$22.2K | $13.3K | ✓ |
| 2026-05-05 | 2010 · 60k mi | $7.5K–$19.9K | $6.1K | ✗ |
Live now — calling it before the gavel
We're currently tracking 8 open auctions in this market. Here's our predicted hammer range for each — check back after they close.
| Closes | Car | Source | Our predicted range |
|---|---|---|---|
| open | 2024 · 5k mi | classic | $8.0K–$29.1K ($15.3K) |
| open | 2020 · 49k mi | classic | $6.1K–$22.2K ($11.7K) |
| open | 2015 · 79k mi | classic | $5.0K–$18.1K ($9.5K) |
| open | 2016 · 92k mi | classic | $4.4K–$16.0K ($8.4K) |
| open | 2013 · 95k mi | classic | $4.2K–$15.4K ($8.1K) |
| open | 2014 · 98k mi | classic | $4.1K–$14.7K ($7.7K) |
| open | 2024 · 11k mi | classic | $7.9K–$28.5K ($15.0K) |
| open | 2016 · 54k mi | classic | $6.2K–$22.4K ($11.8K) |
No-lookahead: predictions are made before each auction closes; the scorecard grades confirmed sold auctions only (no-sales excluded). A modeled estimate, not a guarantee. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Where We Think It's Headed
Probability and range, not a single number. Wider = less certain (not bigger gains).
| Horizon | Direction | Probability | Confidence | Past accuracy |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 mo | UP | 49% | Low | 50% |
| 12 mo | FLAT | 50% | Low | 45% |
| 24 mo | FLAT | 50% | Low | 23% |
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Lead Indicator Forecast
Some indicators move before this market does. 30-Year Mortgage Rate has historically led it by about 3 months — so its recent move implies where prices head next (dashed). The solid green line is actual value through today; the shaded path is what the lead implies.
If You’d Bought in 2015
$100K invested 2015-01 → today (11.6 yrs), this car vs where else you could've put the money. Rebased to 100 at the start; the dashed line is inflation (break-even).
What This Market Follows
Specialty-car prices don't move in a vacuum. These economic indicators have historically led this market — tap one to see it shifted forward by its lead time, overlaid on the value line.
30-Year Mortgage Rate leads by about 3 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.61). Shown shifted forward 3 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Why We Think This
Current Inventory Snapshot
Comparable Markets
| Market | Undervaluation | Appreciation | Liquidity |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aston Martin Lagonda | 13 | 74 | — |
| Aston Martin Lagonda Volante | 72 | 41 | — |
| Bentley Continental (S1, S2, S3) | 63 | 69 | 59 |
| Buick Riviera | 53 | 53 | 44 |
| Mercedes-Benz CL-Class | 72 | 43 | 37 |
| Mercedes-Benz CLK-Class | 68 | 66 | 42 |
Recent Signals & Alerts
- vin returned lower VIN relisted $-3,739 vs prior
- vin returned higher VIN relisted +$3,723 vs prior
- price jump Median asking moved sharply (z=56.2)
- undisclosed title change VIN previously reported non-clean now listed clean/undisclosed
- vin returned higher VIN relisted +$3,723 vs prior
- vin returned lower VIN relisted $-2,906 vs prior
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.