Jeep Wrangler JL (2018+) Sahara

WRANGLER JL 2018 SAHARA CARSTOCKSPECIALTY
$29.4K ▼ $2.3K (−7.1%)12 mo
WATCHMixed signals — but volatile.
Fair value$29.4K ($25.9K–$33.0K)
Typical ask$30.0K
Recent sold$29.5K
12-mo outlookRoughly flat · 5-in-10 up
ConfidenceModerate
Buyer: Anchor offers to recent sold comps ($30k).
Seller: Price near recent sold comps ($30k); expect negotiation.
Watcher: Volatile — wait for a clearer trend before acting.
💰 Pricing your car to sell
Quick sale$25.9Ksells fast
Fair$29.5Krecent comps
List$31.6Kroom to negotiate
Stretch$34.6Kexceptional
🎯 Buying guide
Strong deal below $25.9K · Fair $25.9K–$33.0K · careful above $34.6K

Flagged undervalued because asking -6% vs historic sold.

What It's Actually Worth

Blended value of a standard 5 yr, 32k mi example, ~$29.4K now. The green line weighs confirmed auction sales most heavily (the amber dots — what cars actually hammered for), blends in fast-selling "just-missed" listings, and lightly smooths out month-to-month composition noise.

2022-05 2026-06 $63.5K $13.8K
━ blended true value ● confirmed auction sales (dot size = volume)
◫ 58 confirmed sales·50 months tracked·since 2022-05·1240 active listings

Auction Scorecard gavel in range 9 in 10

We replayed 37 past auctions in this market — predicting each hammer price from market data before the sale (no hindsight). Typical miss: ±13%; the gavel landed inside our predicted range 9 in 10 of the time, and we lean slightly low on average.

SoldCarOur rangeHammer
2026-04-17 2022 · 7k mi $22.2K–$63.8K $40.5K
2026-04-17 2022 · 16k mi $18.1K–$52.1K $34.0K
2026-01-30 2022 · 27k mi $16.7K–$47.9K $29.9K
2026-01-29 2021 · 26k mi $16.7K–$48.0K $26.0K
2026-01-28 2021 · 43k mi $16.2K–$46.6K $31.6K
2026-01-27 2021 · 83k mi $14.2K–$40.9K $28.0K
2026-01-26 2019 · 35k mi $16.6K–$47.5K $28.8K
2026-01-25 2020 · 66k mi $15.3K–$43.9K $26.9K

Live now — calling it before the gavel

We're currently tracking 8 open auctions in this market. Here's our predicted hammer range for each — check back after they close.

ClosesCarSourceOur predicted range
open 2025 · 21k mi classic $15.8K–$59.6K ($30.7K)
open 2021 · 24k mi classic $15.5K–$58.5K ($30.1K)
open 2023 · 11k mi classic $17.4K–$65.8K ($33.9K)
open 2024 · 13k mi classic $16.5K–$62.4K ($32.1K)
open 2022 · 17k mi classic $16.1K–$60.6K ($31.2K)
open 2025 · 26k mi classic $15.5K–$58.6K ($30.2K)
open 2025 · 4k mi classic $20.5K–$77.2K ($39.7K)
open 2025 · 12k mi classic $16.7K–$63.2K ($32.5K)

No-lookahead: predictions are made before each auction closes; the scorecard grades confirmed sold auctions only (no-sales excluded). A modeled estimate, not a guarantee. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.

Where We Think It's Headed

Probability and range, not a single number. Wider = less certain (not bigger gains).

2022-05 now +24mo $71.7K $11.0K
HorizonDirectionProbabilityConfidencePast accuracy
6 mo DOWN 54% Low 75%
12 mo DOWN 54% Low
24 mo DOWN 54% Low

Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.

Lead Indicator Forecast

Some indicators move before this market does. Housing Starts has historically led it by about 3 months — so its recent move implies where prices head next (dashed). The solid green line is actual value through today; the shaded path is what the lead implies.

$29.7K now +3mo 2022-05 $60.5K $27.8K
BECAUSE Housing Starts rose 6%. THEREFORE, given its usual 3-month head start, we lean UP — about +1% (≈ +$208) over the next 3 months. Confidence: Moderate (correlation -0.66, 20 months overlap).

If You’d Bought in 2022

$100K invested 2022-05 → today (4.1 yrs), this car vs where else you could've put the money. Rebased to 100 at the start; the dashed line is inflation (break-even).

$48.7K$196K$246K$99.6K$108K 2022 2026 284 100
━ This car $48.7K━ S&P 500 $196K━ Gold $246K━ Luxury $99.6K━ Housing $108K₿ Bitcoin $201K (off-scale)
Lost ground to inflation. The Jeep Wrangler JL (2018+) Sahara roughly 0.5×'d your money (a real 57% LOSS to inflation). It LAGGED the stock market by about 75% — the same money in the S&P 500 would be larger. It trailed housing (-55%). (Price only — a real round-trip also loses ~10–20% to buy/sell fees and carrying costs.)
📷 Share this comparison →

What This Market Follows

Specialty-car prices don't move in a vacuum. These economic indicators have historically led this market — tap one to see it shifted forward by its lead time, overlaid on the value line.

Housing Starts leads by about 3 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.66). Shown shifted forward 3 months so its turns line up with the market's.

━ Jeep Wrangler JL (2018+) Sahara ┄ Housing Starts, shifted +3mo
2022-05 2026-06

Why We Think This

Appreciation Momentum
49
Undervaluation
50
Liquidity
50
Speculation Opportunity
48
Depreciation Risk
54
Overvaluation
47
sell-through 96% sell through rate
asking -6% vs historic sold asking vs historic spread
+1% vs 12-mo avg pct vs trailing 12mo
sale prices -0.1%/mo median sale trend slope
new-listing velocity 7% of active new listing velocity
16% of listings cutting price price drop frequency

Current Inventory Snapshot

Active priced listings1240
Median fair value$28,474
Avg deal score51/100

Comparable Markets

MarketUndervaluationAppreciationLiquidity
Jeep Wrangler JL (2018+) Rubicon 392 525150
Jeep Wrangler JL (2018+) 4xe 505414
Jeep Wrangler JL (2018+) Rubicon 297347
Jeep Wrangler JL (2018+) Willys 504351

Recent Signals & Alerts

Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.