Jeep Wrangler JL (2018+) Rubicon 392

WRANGLER 392 CARSTOCKSPECIALTY
$59.3K ▼ $5.1K (−7.9%)12 mo
WATCHMixed signals — but volatile.
Fair value$59.3K ($52.2K–$66.5K)
Typical ask$68.6K
Recent sold$68.0K
12-mo outlookRoughly flat · 5-in-10 up
ConfidenceHigh · 40% calls right
Buyer: Anchor offers to recent sold comps ($68k).
Seller: Price near recent sold comps ($68k); expect negotiation.
Watcher: Volatile — wait for a clearer trend before acting.
💰 Pricing your car to sell
Quick sale$52.2Ksells fast
Fair$68.0Krecent comps
List$72.8Kroom to negotiate
Stretch$78.9Kexceptional
🎯 Buying guide
Strong deal below $52.2K · Fair $52.2K–$66.5K · careful above $73.9K

Flagged undervalued because sell-through 100%, and -8% vs 2-yr avg.

What It's Actually Worth

Blended value of a standard 2 yr, 3k mi example, ~$59.3K now. The green line weighs confirmed auction sales most heavily (the amber dots — what cars actually hammered for), blends in fast-selling "just-missed" listings, and lightly smooths out month-to-month composition noise.

2022-01 2026-06 $124K $39.9K
━ blended true value ● confirmed auction sales (dot size = volume)
◫ 89 confirmed sales·54 months tracked·since 2022-01·1665 active listings

Did our model work? 40% direction calls right

Each faint amber line is a forecast we would have made at that point in the past (12-mo horizon), drawn against what actually happened (blue). Over 20 scored forecasts: 40% got the direction right, median value error ±16%.

2021-10 2026-06 $133K $61.1K
━ actual ╱ past predictions (ghosts)

Walk-forward: each ghost uses only data available at that date — no hindsight. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.

Auction Scorecard gavel in range 10 in 10

We replayed 74 past auctions in this market — predicting each hammer price from market data before the sale (no hindsight). Typical miss: ±12%; the gavel landed inside our predicted range 10 in 10 of the time, and we lean slightly high on average.

SoldCarOur rangeHammer
2026-05-21 2022 · 31k mi $35.7K–$103K $53.0K
2026-05-14 2022 · 3k mi $41.7K–$120K $58.9K
2026-03-29 2022 · 16k mi $37.6K–$108K $92.0K
2026-03-27 2024 · 0k mi $42.8K–$123K $67.5K
2026-03-18 2021 · 3k mi $40.6K–$117K $55.0K
2026-01-26 2023 · 27k mi $30.5K–$115K $65.0K
2026-01-24 2022 · 47k mi $29.7K–$112K $60.0K
2026-01-20 2024 · 9k mi $32.8K–$124K $76.5K

Live now — calling it before the gavel

We're currently tracking 8 open auctions in this market. Here's our predicted hammer range for each — check back after they close.

ClosesCarSourceOur predicted range
open 2024 · 9k mi classic $33.5K–$126K ($65.0K)
open 2023 · 3k mi classic $34.6K–$131K ($67.3K)
open 2024 · 11k mi classic $32.5K–$123K ($63.1K)
open 2023 · 32k mi classic $29.6K–$112K ($57.4K)
open 2022 · 38k mi classic $29.4K–$111K ($57.0K)
open 2024 · 1k mi classic $35.9K–$135K ($69.6K)
open 2024 · 1k mi classic $35.6K–$134K ($69.2K)
open 2024 · 2k mi classic $35.0K–$132K ($67.9K)

No-lookahead: predictions are made before each auction closes; the scorecard grades confirmed sold auctions only (no-sales excluded). A modeled estimate, not a guarantee. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.

Where We Think It's Headed

Probability and range, not a single number. Wider = less certain (not bigger gains).

2022-01 now +24mo $101K $36.2K
HorizonDirectionProbabilityConfidencePast accuracy
6 mo UP 45% Moderate 58%
12 mo FLAT 50% Moderate 40%
24 mo FLAT 50% Moderate 50%

Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.

Lead Indicator Forecast

Some indicators move before this market does. Consumer Discretionary ETF (XLY) has historically led it by about 4 months — so its recent move implies where prices head next (dashed). The solid green line is actual value through today; the shaded path is what the lead implies.

$59.2K now +4mo 2022-01 $84.3K $58.3K
BECAUSE Consumer Discretionary ETF (XLY) rose 1%. THEREFORE, given its usual 4-month head start, we expect little change — about −0% (≈ −$177) over the next 4 months. Confidence: Moderate (correlation +0.73, 24 months overlap).

Crystal Ball — What Leading Indicators Signal

Distinct from the trend forecast above: this blends all 8 leading indicators (each at its own lead time, de-duplicated so correlated ones don't double-count) into one signal. Leading indicators are collectively signaling lower over the next ~12 months (low conviction — 6% of weighted drivers agree), driven mainly by Consumer Discretionary ETF (XLY) and Russell 2000 (small cap), though WTI Crude Oil points the other way.

now +12mo (indicators) $84.3K $47.2K

Are the indicators agreeing?

Each bar is one driver's current push; longer = more weight. All one side = high conviction; split = low.

Consumer Discretiona-0.7Russell 2000 (small -1.5WTI Crude Oil+0.1Ethereum (USD)-0.810Y-2Y Yield Spread-0.2Trade-Weighted Dolla+0.2Case-Shiller Home P+0.6Gold (futures)+0.1 ← bearish bullish →

If You’d Bought in 2022

$100K invested 2022-01 → today (4.4 yrs), this car vs where else you could've put the money. Rebased to 100 at the start; the dashed line is inflation (break-even).

$90.5K$182K$254K$79.3K$117K 2022 2026 291 100
━ This car $90.5K━ S&P 500 $182K━ Gold $254K━ Luxury $79.3K━ Housing $117K₿ Bitcoin $180K (off-scale)
Lost ground to inflation. The Jeep Wrangler JL (2018+) Rubicon 392 roughly 0.9×'d your money (a real 23% LOSS to inflation). It LAGGED the stock market by about 50% — the same money in the S&P 500 would be larger. It trailed housing (-23%). (Price only — a real round-trip also loses ~10–20% to buy/sell fees and carrying costs.)
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What This Market Follows

Specialty-car prices don't move in a vacuum. These economic indicators have historically led this market — tap one to see it shifted forward by its lead time, overlaid on the value line.

Consumer Discretionary ETF (XLY) leads by about 4 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.73). Shown shifted forward 4 months so its turns line up with the market's.

━ Jeep Wrangler JL (2018+) Rubicon 392 ┄ Consumer Discretionary ETF (XLY), shifted +4mo
2022-01 2026-06

Why We Think This

Appreciation Momentum
51
Undervaluation
52
Liquidity
50
Speculation Opportunity
51
Depreciation Risk
51
Overvaluation
51
sell-through 100% sell through rate
asking +2% vs historic sold asking vs historic spread
-7% vs 3-yr trend pct vs trailing 36mo
sale prices -0.3%/mo median sale trend slope
-5% vs 12-mo avg pct vs trailing 12mo
15% relisted listing reappearance rate
53 days on market median days on market

Current Inventory Snapshot

Active priced listings1665
Median fair value$66,338
Avg deal score51/100

Comparable Markets

MarketUndervaluationAppreciationLiquidity
Jeep Wrangler JL (2018+) 4xe 505414
Jeep Wrangler JL (2018+) Rubicon 297347
Jeep Wrangler JL (2018+) Sahara 504950
Jeep Wrangler JL (2018+) Willys 504351

Recent Signals & Alerts

Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.