Flagged undervalued because -14% vs 2-yr avg, -17% vs 3-yr trend, inventory -0%, and asking +6% vs historic sold.
What It's Actually Worth
Blended value of a standard 5 yr, 23k mi example, ~$38.9K now. The green line weighs confirmed auction sales most heavily (the amber dots — what cars actually hammered for), blends in fast-selling "just-missed" listings, and lightly smooths out month-to-month composition noise.
◫ 127 confirmed auction sales·67 months tracked·since 2021-03·7463 active listings
Did our model work? 80% direction calls right
Each faint amber line is a forecast we would have made at that point in the past (12-mo horizon), drawn against what actually happened (blue). Over 30 scored forecasts: 80% got the direction right, median value error ±13%.
━ actual╱ past predictions (ghosts)
Walk-forward: each ghost uses only data available at that date — no hindsight. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Where We Think It's Headed
Probability and range, not a single number. Wider = less certain (not bigger gains).
Horizon
Direction
Probability
Confidence
Past accuracy
6 mo
UP
41%
Low
67%
12 mo
DOWN
61%
Low
80%
24 mo
DOWN
64%
Low
78%
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
If You’d Bought in 2021
$100K invested 2021-03 → today (5.5 yrs), this car vs where else you could've put the money. Rebased to 100 at the start; the dashed line is inflation (break-even).
━ This car $47.5K━ S&P 500 $213K━ Gold $255K━ Luxury $88.0K━ Housing $138K₿ Bitcoin $132K (off-scale)
Lost ground to inflation. The Jeep Wrangler JL (2018+) Rubicon roughly 0.5×'d your money (a real 62% LOSS to inflation). It LAGGED the stock market by about 78% — the same money in the S&P 500 would be larger. It trailed housing (-66%). (Price only — a real round-trip also loses ~10–20% to buy/sell fees and carrying costs.)
Specialty-car prices don't move in a vacuum. These economic indicators have historically led this market — tap one to see it shifted forward by its lead time, overlaid on the value line.
10-Year Treasury Yield leads by about 9 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.67). Shown shifted forward 9 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Gold (futures) leads by about 6 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.67). Shown shifted forward 6 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Nonfarm Payrolls (jobs) leads by about 5 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.67). Shown shifted forward 5 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Advance Retail Sales leads by about 10 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.67). Shown shifted forward 10 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Dow Jones Industrial leads by about 3 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.66). Shown shifted forward 3 months so its turns line up with the market's.
CPI (All Urban Consumers) leads by about 24 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.66). Shown shifted forward 24 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Nasdaq Composite leads by about 0 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.65). Shown shifted forward 0 months so its turns line up with the market's.
undisclosed title change VIN previously reported non-clean now listed clean/undisclosed
price jump Median asking moved sharply (z=7.8)
vin returned lower VIN relisted $-2,800 vs prior
vin returned higher VIN relisted +$6,068 vs prior
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.