Flagged undervalued because asking -6% vs historic sold.
What It's Actually Worth
Blended value of a standard 2 yr, 16k mi example, ~$32.4K now. The green line weighs confirmed auction sales most heavily (the amber dots — what cars actually hammered for), blends in fast-selling "just-missed" listings, and lightly smooths out month-to-month composition noise.
◫ 15 confirmed auction sales·27 months tracked·since 2024-06·2653 active listings
Auction Scorecard live
Live now — calling it before the gavel
We're currently tracking 8 open auctions in this market. Here's our predicted hammer range for each — check back after they close.
Closes
Car
Source
Our predicted range
open
2024 · 15k mi
ebay
$17.5K–$68.1K ($34.5K)
open
2024 · 15k mi
ebay
$17.2K–$66.5K ($33.8K)
open
2023 · 21k mi
classic
$15.5K–$59.8K ($30.4K)
open
2023 · 23k mi
classic
$15.2K–$58.7K ($29.9K)
open
2024 · 18k mi
classic
$16.3K–$63.2K ($32.1K)
open
2024 · 19k mi
classic
$15.9K–$61.6K ($31.3K)
open
2024 · 21k mi
classic
$15.6K–$60.2K ($30.6K)
open
2025 · 11k mi
classic
$18.6K–$72.0K ($36.6K)
No-lookahead: predictions are made before each auction closes; the scorecard grades confirmed sold auctions only (no-sales excluded). A modeled estimate, not a guarantee. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Where We Think It's Headed
Probability and range, not a single number. Wider = less certain (not bigger gains).
Horizon
Direction
Probability
Confidence
Past accuracy
6 mo
FLAT
50%
Low
0%
12 mo
FLAT
50%
Low
—
24 mo
UP
52%
Low
—
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Lead Indicator Forecast
Some indicators move before this market does. Bitcoin (USD) has historically led it by about 13 months — so its recent move implies where prices head next (dashed). The solid green line is actual value through today; the shaded path is what the lead implies.
BECAUSE bitcoin fell 46%. THEREFORE, given its usual 13-month head start, we lean DOWN — about −1% (≈ −$285) over the next 13 months. Confidence: Moderate (correlation +0.62, 18 months overlap).
If You’d Bought in 2024
$100K invested 2024-06 → today (2.2 yrs), this car vs where else you could've put the money. Rebased to 100 at the start; the dashed line is inflation (break-even).
━ This car $71.3K━ S&P 500 $147K━ Gold $192K━ Luxury $75.8K━ Housing $103K₿ Bitcoin $101K (off-scale)
Lost ground to inflation. The Jeep Wrangler JL (2018+) 4xe roughly 0.7×'d your money (a real 33% LOSS to inflation). It LAGGED the stock market by about 52% — the same money in the S&P 500 would be larger. It trailed housing (-31%). (Price only — a real round-trip also loses ~10–20% to buy/sell fees and carrying costs.)
Specialty-car prices don't move in a vacuum. These economic indicators have historically led this market — tap one to see it shifted forward by its lead time, overlaid on the value line.
30-Year Mortgage Rate leads by about 5 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.84). Shown shifted forward 5 months so its turns line up with the market's.
10-Year Treasury Yield leads by about 5 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.75). Shown shifted forward 5 months so its turns line up with the market's.
LVMH (luxury proxy ADR) leads by about 16 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.74). Shown shifted forward 16 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Initial Jobless Claims leads by about 20 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.67). Shown shifted forward 20 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Trade-Weighted Dollar Index leads by about 9 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.67). Shown shifted forward 9 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Ethereum (USD) leads by about 0 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.66). Shown shifted forward 0 months so its turns line up with the market's.
VIX Volatility Index leads by about 16 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.65). Shown shifted forward 16 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Bitcoin (USD) leads by about 13 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.62). Shown shifted forward 13 months so its turns line up with the market's.
undisclosed title change VIN previously reported non-clean now listed clean/undisclosed
vin returned lower VIN relisted $-3,500 vs prior
vin returned higher VIN relisted +$3,985 vs prior
undisclosed title change VIN previously reported non-clean now listed clean/undisclosed
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.