Aston Martin Vanquish
Flagged undervalued because inventory -1%, +1% vs 2-yr avg, and +1% vs 3-yr trend.
What It's Actually Worth
Blended value of a standard 18 yr, 19k mi example, ~$78.6K now. The green line weighs confirmed auction sales most heavily (the amber dots — what cars actually hammered for), blends in fast-selling "just-missed" listings, and lightly smooths out month-to-month composition noise.
Did our model work? 61% direction calls right
Each faint amber line is a forecast we would have made at that point in the past (12-mo horizon), drawn against what actually happened (blue). Over 66 scored forecasts: 61% got the direction right, median value error ±27%.
Walk-forward: each ghost uses only data available at that date — no hindsight. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Auction Scorecard gavel in range 7 in 10
We replayed 275 past auctions in this market — predicting each hammer price from market data before the sale (no hindsight). Typical miss: ±30%; the gavel landed inside our predicted range 7 in 10 of the time, and we lean slightly high on average.
| Sold | Car | Our range | Hammer | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-18 | 2018 · 12k mi | $50.8K–$135K | $178K | ✗ |
| 2026-09-10 | 2012 · 108k mi | $34.0K–$90.4K | $49.3K | ✓ |
| 2026-09-08 | 2004 · 33k mi | $41.3K–$110K | $44.6K | ✓ |
| 2026-08-30 | 2015 · 19k mi | $45.1K–$120K | $75.4K | ✓ |
| 2026-08-30 | 2013 · 33k mi | $39.1K–$104K | $50.5K | ✓ |
| 2026-08-27 | 2016 · 21k mi | $44.3K–$118K | $98.0K | ✓ |
| 2026-08-18 | 2005 · 17k mi | $45.7K–$122K | $80.0K | ✓ |
| 2026-08-15 | 2018 · 2k mi | $95.8K–$255K | $473K | ✗ |
Live now — calling it before the gavel
We're currently tracking 8 open auctions in this market. Here's our predicted hammer range for each — check back after they close.
| Closes | Car | Source | Our predicted range |
|---|---|---|---|
| open | 2014 · 4k mi | hemmings | $75.6K–$274K ($144K) |
| open | 2015 · 13k mi | ebay | $42.6K–$154K ($81.0K) |
| open | 2018 · 3k mi | classic | $75.3K–$272K ($143K) |
| open | 2015 · 13k mi | ebay | $42.5K–$154K ($81.0K) |
| open | 2015 · 23k mi | classic | $38.4K–$139K ($73.1K) |
| open | 2014 · 33k mi | classic | $33.8K–$122K ($64.3K) |
| open | 2015 · 13k mi | ebay | $42.7K–$154K ($81.0K) |
| open | 2015 · 13k mi | ebay | $42.1K–$152K ($79.9K) |
No-lookahead: predictions are made before each auction closes; the scorecard grades confirmed sold auctions only (no-sales excluded). A modeled estimate, not a guarantee. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Where We Think It's Headed
Probability and range, not a single number. Wider = less certain (not bigger gains).
| Horizon | Direction | Probability | Confidence | Past accuracy |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 mo | UP | 50% | Low | 58% |
| 12 mo | UP | 52% | Low | 61% |
| 24 mo | UP | 53% | Low | 54% |
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Lead Indicator Forecast
Some indicators move before this market does. Housing Starts has historically led it by about 5 months — so its recent move implies where prices head next (dashed). The solid green line is actual value through today; the shaded path is what the lead implies.
Crystal Ball — What Leading Indicators Signal
Distinct from the trend forecast above: this blends all 8 leading indicators (each at its own lead time, de-duplicated so correlated ones don't double-count) into one signal. Leading indicators are collectively signaling higher over the next ~12 months (low conviction — 21% of weighted drivers agree), driven mainly by Housing Starts and Core CPI (ex food/energy), though US Regular Gas Price points the other way.
Are the indicators agreeing?
Each bar is one driver's current push; longer = more weight. All one side = high conviction; split = low.
If You’d Bought in 2015
$100K invested 2015-04 → today (11.4 yrs), this car vs where else you could've put the money. Rebased to 100 at the start; the dashed line is inflation (break-even).
What This Market Follows
Specialty-car prices don't move in a vacuum. These economic indicators have historically led this market — tap one to see it shifted forward by its lead time, overlaid on the value line.
Housing Starts leads by about 5 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.60). Shown shifted forward 5 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Why We Think This
Current Inventory Snapshot
Comparable Markets
| Market | Undervaluation | Appreciation | Liquidity |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aston Martin DB4 | 61 | 48 | 63 |
| Aston Martin DB5 | 16 | 50 | — |
| Bentley Continental (S1, S2, S3) | 53 | 38 | 61 |
| Buick Riviera | 60 | 43 | 49 |
| Mercedes-Benz CL-Class | 49 | 50 | 35 |
| Mercedes-Benz CLK-Class | 56 | 39 | 40 |
Recent Signals & Alerts
- vin returned higher VIN relisted +$19,512 vs prior
- price jump Median asking moved sharply (z=4.3)
- vin returned higher VIN relisted +$15,400 vs prior
- inventory shortage Inventory dropped (robust z=-3.2)
- vin returned higher VIN relisted +$19,900 vs prior
- inventory shortage Inventory dropped (robust z=-3.4)
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.