Audi Ur-Quattro
Flagged undervalued because inventory -3%, -46% vs 2-yr avg, sell-through 100%, and -44% vs 3-yr trend.
What It's Actually Worth
Blended value of a standard 40 yr, 80k mi example, ~$51.2K now. The green line weighs confirmed auction sales most heavily (the amber dots — what cars actually hammered for), blends in fast-selling "just-missed" listings, and lightly smooths out month-to-month composition noise.
Did our model work? 60% direction calls right
Each faint amber line is a forecast we would have made at that point in the past (12-mo horizon), drawn against what actually happened (blue). Over 30 scored forecasts: 60% got the direction right, median value error ±44%.
Walk-forward: each ghost uses only data available at that date — no hindsight. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Auction Scorecard gavel in range 8 in 10
We replayed 70 past auctions in this market — predicting each hammer price from market data before the sale (no hindsight). Typical miss: ±25%; the gavel landed inside our predicted range 8 in 10 of the time, and we lean slightly low on average.
| Sold | Car | Our range | Hammer | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-20 | 1983 · 99k mi | $24.7K–$90.6K | $52.9K | ✓ |
| 2026-05-19 | 1985 · 120k mi | $22.0K–$80.6K | $39.0K | ✓ |
| 2026-03-22 | 1988 · 129k mi | $21.4K–$78.4K | $40.7K | ✓ |
| 2026-03-11 | 1990 · 62k mi | $27.3K–$100K | $73.7K | ✓ |
| 2025-11-09 | 1988 · 140k mi | $19.7K–$72.1K | $37.1K | ✓ |
| 2025-10-30 | 1988 · 157k mi | $18.8K–$68.8K | $38.7K | ✓ |
| 2025-09-02 | 1983 · 105k mi | $22.0K–$80.7K | $93.5K | ✗ |
| 2025-07-28 | 1982 · 25k mi | $28.0K–$103K | $76.0K | ✓ |
Live now — calling it before the gavel
We're currently tracking 3 open auctions in this market. Here's our predicted hammer range for each — check back after they close.
| Closes | Car | Source | Our predicted range |
|---|---|---|---|
| open | 1983 · 207k mi | classic | $13.4K–$70.8K ($30.8K) |
| open | 1990 · 43k mi | classic | $20.9K–$111K ($48.1K) |
| open | 1983 · 73k mi | classic | $20.3K–$108K ($46.7K) |
No-lookahead: predictions are made before each auction closes; the scorecard grades confirmed sold auctions only (no-sales excluded). A modeled estimate, not a guarantee. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Where We Think It's Headed
Probability and range, not a single number. Wider = less certain (not bigger gains).
| Horizon | Direction | Probability | Confidence | Past accuracy |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 mo | UP | 49% | Low | 56% |
| 12 mo | FLAT | 50% | Low | 60% |
| 24 mo | FLAT | 50% | Low | 44% |
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Lead Indicator Forecast
Some indicators move before this market does. Initial Jobless Claims has historically led it by about 6 months — so its recent move implies where prices head next (dashed). The solid green line is actual value through today; the shaded path is what the lead implies.
If You’d Bought in 2016
$100K invested 2016-06 → today (10.1 yrs), this car vs where else you could've put the money. Rebased to 100 at the start; the dashed line is inflation (break-even).
What This Market Follows
Specialty-car prices don't move in a vacuum. These economic indicators have historically led this market — tap one to see it shifted forward by its lead time, overlaid on the value line.
Initial Jobless Claims leads by about 6 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.55). Shown shifted forward 6 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Why We Think This
Current Inventory Snapshot
Comparable Markets
| Market | Undervaluation | Appreciation | Liquidity |
|---|---|---|---|
| Alfa Romeo 105 Sedan | 93 | 93 | 17 |
| Mercedes-Benz 190SL | 38 | 43 | 39 |
| BMW 2002 tii | 46 | 74 | 20 |
| Datsun 240Z | 41 | 56 | 38 |
| Datsun 280Z | 32 | 66 | 60 |
| Ferrari 308 | 38 | 64 | 34 |
| Ferrari 308 GT4 | 51 | 54 | 26 |
| Ferrari 328 | 58 | 46 | 42 |
Recent Signals & Alerts
- inventory shortage Inventory dropped (robust z=-3.4)
- inventory shortage Inventory dropped (robust z=-4.0)
- price jump Median asking moved sharply (z=78.2)
- price jump Median asking moved sharply (z=-8.7)
- price jump Median asking moved sharply (z=-9.3)
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.