Audi Ur-Quattro
Flagged undervalued because -40% vs 2-yr avg, -34% vs 3-yr trend, sell-through 100%, and inventory -0%.
What It's Actually Worth
Blended value of a standard 40 yr, 77k mi example, ~$50.9K now. The green line weighs confirmed auction sales most heavily (the amber dots — what cars actually hammered for), blends in fast-selling "just-missed" listings, and lightly smooths out month-to-month composition noise.
Did our model work? 58% direction calls right
Each faint amber line is a forecast we would have made at that point in the past (12-mo horizon), drawn against what actually happened (blue). Over 33 scored forecasts: 58% got the direction right, median value error ±43%.
Walk-forward: each ghost uses only data available at that date — no hindsight. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Auction Scorecard gavel in range 8 in 10
We replayed 73 past auctions in this market — predicting each hammer price from market data before the sale (no hindsight). Typical miss: ±28%; the gavel landed inside our predicted range 8 in 10 of the time, and we lean slightly low on average.
| Sold | Car | Our range | Hammer | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-17 | 1981 · 73k mi | $26.4K–$97.0K | $78.0K | ✓ |
| 2026-07-22 | 1990 · 43k mi | $27.5K–$101K | $106K | ✗ |
| 2026-06-09 | 1986 · 46k mi | $27.6K–$101K | $120K | ✗ |
| 2026-05-20 | 1983 · 99k mi | $25.0K–$91.9K | $52.9K | ✓ |
| 2026-05-19 | 1985 · 120k mi | $22.1K–$81.1K | $39.0K | ✓ |
| 2026-03-22 | 1988 · 129k mi | $21.5K–$78.8K | $40.7K | ✓ |
| 2026-03-11 | 1990 · 62k mi | $27.7K–$102K | $73.7K | ✓ |
| 2025-11-09 | 1988 · 140k mi | $19.6K–$71.9K | $37.1K | ✓ |
Live now — calling it before the gavel
We're currently tracking 3 open auctions in this market. Here's our predicted hammer range for each — check back after they close.
| Closes | Car | Source | Our predicted range |
|---|---|---|---|
| open | 1983 · 207k mi | classic | $13.4K–$70.8K ($30.8K) |
| open | 1990 · 43k mi | classic | $20.9K–$111K ($48.1K) |
| open | 1983 · 73k mi | classic | $20.3K–$108K ($46.7K) |
No-lookahead: predictions are made before each auction closes; the scorecard grades confirmed sold auctions only (no-sales excluded). A modeled estimate, not a guarantee. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Where We Think It's Headed
Probability and range, not a single number. Wider = less certain (not bigger gains).
| Horizon | Direction | Probability | Confidence | Past accuracy |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 mo | UP | 50% | Low | 59% |
| 12 mo | UP | 50% | Low | 58% |
| 24 mo | UP | 50% | Low | 43% |
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Lead Indicator Forecast
Some indicators move before this market does. High-Yield Bond Spread has historically led it by about 5 months — so its recent move implies where prices head next (dashed). The solid green line is actual value through today; the shaded path is what the lead implies.
Crystal Ball — What Leading Indicators Signal
Distinct from the trend forecast above: this blends all 8 leading indicators (each at its own lead time, de-duplicated so correlated ones don't double-count) into one signal. Leading indicators are collectively signaling sideways over the next ~12 months (moderate conviction — 47% of weighted drivers agree), driven mainly by Initial Jobless Claims and Silver, though Silver points the other way.
Are the indicators agreeing?
Each bar is one driver's current push; longer = more weight. All one side = high conviction; split = low.
If You’d Bought in 2016
$100K invested 2016-06 → today (10.2 yrs), this car vs where else you could've put the money. Rebased to 100 at the start; the dashed line is inflation (break-even).
What This Market Follows
Specialty-car prices don't move in a vacuum. These economic indicators have historically led this market — tap one to see it shifted forward by its lead time, overlaid on the value line.
High-Yield Bond Spread leads by about 5 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.56). Shown shifted forward 5 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Why We Think This
Current Inventory Snapshot
Comparable Markets
| Market | Undervaluation | Appreciation | Liquidity |
|---|---|---|---|
| Alfa Romeo 105 Sedan | 84 | 22 | 32 |
| Mercedes-Benz 190SL | 51 | 40 | 56 |
| BMW 2002 tii | 60 | 33 | 13 |
| Datsun 240Z | 49 | 56 | 44 |
| Datsun 280Z | 48 | 45 | 59 |
| Ferrari 308 | 38 | 55 | 45 |
| Ferrari 308 GT4 | 54 | 47 | 15 |
| Ferrari 328 | 44 | 53 | 51 |
Recent Signals & Alerts
- price jump Median asking moved sharply (z=17.2)
- price jump Median asking moved sharply (z=8.7)
- price jump Median asking moved sharply (z=4.2)
- price jump Median asking moved sharply (z=-4.3)
- price jump Median asking moved sharply (z=-5.8)
- price jump Median asking moved sharply (z=61.2)
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.