Triumph TR6
Flagged undervalued because inventory -0%, and sell-through 92%.
What It's Actually Worth
Blended value of a standard 51 yr, 48k mi example, ~$17.0K now. The green line weighs confirmed auction sales most heavily (the amber dots — what cars actually hammered for), blends in fast-selling "just-missed" listings, and lightly smooths out month-to-month composition noise.
Did our model work? 60% direction calls right
Each faint amber line is a forecast we would have made at that point in the past (12-mo horizon), drawn against what actually happened (blue). Over 148 scored forecasts: 60% got the direction right, median value error ±27%.
Walk-forward: each ghost uses only data available at that date — no hindsight. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Auction Scorecard gavel in range 9 in 10
We replayed 556 past auctions in this market — predicting each hammer price from market data before the sale (no hindsight). Typical miss: ±28%; the gavel landed inside our predicted range 9 in 10 of the time, and we lean slightly high on average.
| Sold | Car | Our range | Hammer | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-27 | 1973 · 69k mi | $6.8K–$36.0K | $20.0K | ✓ |
| 2026-09-20 | 1973 · 100k mi | $7.8K–$28.6K | $12.4K | ✓ |
| 2026-09-18 | 1976 · 64k mi | $8.3K–$30.3K | $23.0K | ✓ |
| 2026-09-18 | 1973 · 2k mi | $9.3K–$34.1K | $17.0K | ✓ |
| 2026-09-17 | 1971 · 47k mi | $8.8K–$32.4K | $18.1K | ✓ |
| 2026-09-14 | 1973 · 3k mi | $9.5K–$34.8K | $33.5K | ✓ |
| 2026-09-08 | 1970 · 83k mi | $8.1K–$29.8K | $40.0K | ✗ |
| 2026-09-04 | 1970 · 9k mi | $8.5K–$31.0K | $9.7K | ✓ |
Live now — calling it before the gavel
We're currently tracking 8 open auctions in this market. Here's our predicted hammer range for each — check back after they close.
| Closes | Car | Source | Our predicted range |
|---|---|---|---|
| open | 1973 · 5k mi | hemmings | $8.0K–$43.7K ($18.8K) |
| open | 1973 · 47k mi | BaT | $7.4K–$39.9K ($17.1K) |
| open | 1973 | BaT | $7.3K–$39.7K ($17.0K) |
| open | 1976 | BaT | $7.3K–$39.8K ($17.1K) |
| open | 1974 | BaT | $7.3K–$39.7K ($17.0K) |
| open | 1976 · 44k mi | hemmings | $7.5K–$40.4K ($17.4K) |
| open | 1973 | BaT | $7.3K–$39.6K ($17.0K) |
| open | 1976 · 44k mi | hemmings | $7.6K–$40.9K ($17.6K) |
No-lookahead: predictions are made before each auction closes; the scorecard grades confirmed sold auctions only (no-sales excluded). A modeled estimate, not a guarantee. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Where We Think It's Headed
Probability and range, not a single number. Wider = less certain (not bigger gains).
| Horizon | Direction | Probability | Confidence | Past accuracy |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 mo | UP | 51% | Low | 58% |
| 12 mo | FLAT | 50% | Low | 60% |
| 24 mo | UP | 54% | Low | 58% |
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Crystal Ball — What Leading Indicators Signal
Distinct from the trend forecast above: this blends all 8 leading indicators (each at its own lead time, de-duplicated so correlated ones don't double-count) into one signal. Leading indicators are collectively signaling higher over the next ~12 months (high conviction — 100% of weighted drivers agree), driven mainly by High-Yield Bond Spread and Personal Savings Rate.
Are the indicators agreeing?
Each bar is one driver's current push; longer = more weight. All one side = high conviction; split = low.
If You’d Bought in 2006
$100K invested 2006-05 → today (20.3 yrs), this car vs where else you could've put the money. Rebased to 100 at the start; the dashed line is inflation (break-even).
What This Market Follows
Specialty-car prices don't move in a vacuum. These economic indicators have historically led this market — tap one to see it shifted forward by its lead time, overlaid on the value line.
LVMH (luxury proxy ADR) leads by about 4 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.80). Shown shifted forward 4 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Why We Think This
Current Inventory Snapshot
Comparable Markets
| Market | Undervaluation | Appreciation | Liquidity |
|---|---|---|---|
| Alfa Romeo 105 Sedan | 84 | 22 | 32 |
| Mercedes-Benz 190SL | 51 | 40 | 56 |
| BMW 2002 tii | 60 | 33 | 13 |
| Datsun 240Z | 49 | 56 | 44 |
| Datsun 280Z | 48 | 45 | 59 |
| Ferrari 308 | 38 | 55 | 45 |
| Ferrari 308 GT4 | 54 | 47 | 15 |
| Ferrari 328 | 44 | 53 | 51 |
Recent Signals & Alerts
- inventory shortage Inventory dropped (robust z=-3.1)
- inventory shortage Inventory dropped (robust z=-3.4)
- inventory shortage Inventory dropped (robust z=-3.1)
- inventory shortage Inventory dropped (robust z=-3.6)
- inventory shortage Inventory dropped (robust z=-3.6)
- inventory shortage Inventory dropped (robust z=-3.7)
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.