Triumph TR6
Flagged undervalued because sell-through 92%.
What It's Actually Worth
Blended value of a standard 51 yr, 49k mi example, ~$16.7K now. The green line weighs confirmed auction sales most heavily (the amber dots — what cars actually hammered for), blends in fast-selling "just-missed" listings, and lightly smooths out month-to-month composition noise.
Did our model work? 59% direction calls right
Each faint amber line is a forecast we would have made at that point in the past (12-mo horizon), drawn against what actually happened (blue). Over 147 scored forecasts: 59% got the direction right, median value error ±29%.
Walk-forward: each ghost uses only data available at that date — no hindsight. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Auction Scorecard gavel in range 9 in 10
We replayed 538 past auctions in this market — predicting each hammer price from market data before the sale (no hindsight). Typical miss: ±27%; the gavel landed inside our predicted range 9 in 10 of the time, and we lean slightly high on average.
| Sold | Car | Our range | Hammer | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-05 | 1976 · 36k mi | $8.9K–$32.4K | $31.0K | ✓ |
| 2026-08-04 | 1973 · 69k mi | $8.2K–$29.8K | $20.3K | ✓ |
| 2026-07-31 | 1974 · 39k mi | $9.0K–$33.0K | $22.3K | ✓ |
| 2026-07-22 | 1974 · 11k mi | $8.2K–$30.0K | $16.5K | ✓ |
| 2026-07-18 | 1975 · 49k mi | $8.8K–$32.1K | $20.0K | ✓ |
| 2026-07-16 | 1972 · 53k mi | $8.7K–$31.6K | $22.8K | ✓ |
| 2026-07-09 | 1976 · 38k mi | $9.0K–$32.9K | $17.0K | ✓ |
| 2026-07-08 | 1976 · 87k mi | $8.0K–$29.1K | $10.8K | ✓ |
Live now — calling it before the gavel
We're currently tracking 8 open auctions in this market. Here's our predicted hammer range for each — check back after they close.
| Closes | Car | Source | Our predicted range |
|---|---|---|---|
| open | 1974 · 56k mi | hemmings | $7.0K–$37.9K ($16.3K) |
| open | 1972 · 96k mi | BaT | $6.5K–$35.1K ($15.1K) |
| open | 1975 · 54k mi | BaT | $7.0K–$37.8K ($16.3K) |
| open | 1976 · 50k mi | BaT | $7.1K–$38.2K ($16.5K) |
| open | 1973 · 69k mi | ebay | $6.7K–$36.1K ($15.6K) |
| open | 1973 · 69k mi | ebay | $6.7K–$36.3K ($15.6K) |
| open | 1972 · 43k mi | BaT | $7.3K–$39.4K ($17.0K) |
| open | 1974 | hagerty | $7.2K–$38.5K ($16.6K) |
No-lookahead: predictions are made before each auction closes; the scorecard grades confirmed sold auctions only (no-sales excluded). A modeled estimate, not a guarantee. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Where We Think It's Headed
Probability and range, not a single number. Wider = less certain (not bigger gains).
| Horizon | Direction | Probability | Confidence | Past accuracy |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 mo | UP | 51% | Low | 59% |
| 12 mo | UP | 52% | Low | 59% |
| 24 mo | UP | 54% | Low | 57% |
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Crystal Ball — What Leading Indicators Signal
Distinct from the trend forecast above: this blends all 8 leading indicators (each at its own lead time, de-duplicated so correlated ones don't double-count) into one signal. Leading indicators are collectively signaling higher over the next ~12 months (high conviction — 100% of weighted drivers agree), driven mainly by High-Yield Bond Spread and VIX Volatility Index.
Are the indicators agreeing?
Each bar is one driver's current push; longer = more weight. All one side = high conviction; split = low.
If You’d Bought in 2006
$100K invested 2006-05 → today (20.2 yrs), this car vs where else you could've put the money. Rebased to 100 at the start; the dashed line is inflation (break-even).
What This Market Follows
Specialty-car prices don't move in a vacuum. These economic indicators have historically led this market — tap one to see it shifted forward by its lead time, overlaid on the value line.
LVMH (luxury proxy ADR) leads by about 4 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.80). Shown shifted forward 4 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Why We Think This
Current Inventory Snapshot
Comparable Markets
| Market | Undervaluation | Appreciation | Liquidity |
|---|---|---|---|
| Alfa Romeo 105 Sedan | 66 | 43 | 36 |
| Mercedes-Benz 190SL | 41 | 45 | 54 |
| BMW 2002 tii | 47 | 56 | 20 |
| Datsun 240Z | 50 | 48 | 28 |
| Datsun 280Z | 38 | 64 | 52 |
| Ferrari 308 | 36 | 50 | 52 |
| Ferrari 308 GT4 | 54 | 47 | 16 |
| Ferrari 328 | 55 | 40 | 53 |
Recent Signals & Alerts
- inventory shortage Inventory dropped (robust z=-4.5)
- inventory shortage Inventory dropped (robust z=-5.6)
- inventory shortage Inventory dropped (robust z=-4.9)
- inventory shortage Inventory dropped (robust z=-4.0)
- inventory shortage Inventory dropped (robust z=-3.8)
- inventory shortage Inventory dropped (robust z=-3.9)
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.