Triumph TR6
Showing appreciation momentum: +4% vs 12-mo avg, and sale prices +0.4%/mo.
What It's Actually Worth
Blended value of a standard 51 yr, 48k mi example, ~$16.7K now. The green line weighs confirmed auction sales most heavily (the amber dots — what cars actually hammered for), blends in fast-selling "just-missed" listings, and lightly smooths out month-to-month composition noise.
Did our model work? 60% direction calls right
Each faint amber line is a forecast we would have made at that point in the past (12-mo horizon), drawn against what actually happened (blue). Over 145 scored forecasts: 60% got the direction right, median value error ±29%.
Walk-forward: each ghost uses only data available at that date — no hindsight. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Auction Scorecard gavel in range 9 in 10
We replayed 540 past auctions in this market — predicting each hammer price from market data before the sale (no hindsight). Typical miss: ±27%; the gavel landed inside our predicted range 9 in 10 of the time, and we lean slightly high on average.
| Sold | Car | Our range | Hammer | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-23 | 1975 · 62k mi | $8.7K–$31.9K | $35.0K | ✗ |
| 2026-06-23 | 1973 · 43k mi | $9.2K–$33.8K | $16.1K | ✓ |
| 2026-06-23 | 1972 · 95k mi | $8.3K–$30.3K | $10.0K | ✓ |
| 2026-06-19 | 1975 · 71k mi | $8.6K–$31.5K | $55.0K | ✗ |
| 2026-06-18 | 1975 · 61k mi | $8.7K–$32.0K | $11.3K | ✓ |
| 2026-06-17 | 1974 · 47k mi | $9.1K–$33.4K | $14.3K | ✓ |
| 2026-06-14 | 1974 · 31k mi | $8.9K–$32.6K | $22.3K | ✓ |
| 2026-06-12 | 1976 · 9k mi | $8.1K–$29.7K | $37.5K | ✗ |
Live now — calling it before the gavel
We're currently tracking 8 open auctions in this market. Here's our predicted hammer range for each — check back after they close.
| Closes | Car | Source | Our predicted range |
|---|---|---|---|
| open | 1976 | BaT | $7.2K–$38.7K ($16.7K) |
| open | 1973 · 109k mi | ebay | $6.2K–$33.4K ($14.4K) |
| open | 1972 · 49k mi | classic | $7.2K–$38.6K ($16.6K) |
| open | 1973 · 90k mi | BaT | $6.8K–$36.6K ($15.8K) |
| open | 1974 · 47k mi | classic | $7.4K–$39.6K ($17.1K) |
| open | 1973 | BaT | $7.3K–$39.5K ($17.0K) |
| open | 1974 · 32k mi | classic | $7.3K–$39.0K ($16.8K) |
| open | 1969 · 66k mi | BaT | $7.0K–$37.6K ($16.2K) |
No-lookahead: predictions are made before each auction closes; the scorecard grades confirmed sold auctions only (no-sales excluded). A modeled estimate, not a guarantee. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Where We Think It's Headed
Probability and range, not a single number. Wider = less certain (not bigger gains).
| Horizon | Direction | Probability | Confidence | Past accuracy |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 mo | UP | 51% | Low | 60% |
| 12 mo | UP | 52% | Low | 60% |
| 24 mo | UP | 54% | Low | 56% |
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Crystal Ball — What Leading Indicators Signal
Distinct from the trend forecast above: this blends all 7 leading indicators (each at its own lead time, de-duplicated so correlated ones don't double-count) into one signal. Leading indicators are collectively signaling higher over the next ~12 months (high conviction — 68% of weighted drivers agree), driven mainly by High-Yield Bond Spread and VIX Volatility Index, though High-Yield Bond Spread points the other way.
Are the indicators agreeing?
Each bar is one driver's current push; longer = more weight. All one side = high conviction; split = low.
If You’d Bought in 2006
$100K invested 2006-05 → today (20.2 yrs), this car vs where else you could've put the money. Rebased to 100 at the start; the dashed line is inflation (break-even).
What This Market Follows
Specialty-car prices don't move in a vacuum. These economic indicators have historically led this market — tap one to see it shifted forward by its lead time, overlaid on the value line.
LVMH (luxury proxy ADR) leads by about 0 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.80). Shown shifted forward 0 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Why We Think This
Current Inventory Snapshot
Comparable Markets
| Market | Undervaluation | Appreciation | Liquidity |
|---|---|---|---|
| Alfa Romeo 105 Sedan | 93 | 93 | 17 |
| Mercedes-Benz 190SL | 38 | 43 | 39 |
| BMW 2002 tii | 46 | 74 | 20 |
| Datsun 240Z | 41 | 56 | 38 |
| Datsun 280Z | 32 | 66 | 60 |
| Ferrari 308 | 38 | 64 | 34 |
| Ferrari 308 GT4 | 51 | 54 | 26 |
| Ferrari 328 | 58 | 46 | 42 |
Recent Signals & Alerts
- price jump Median asking moved sharply (z=-6.6)
- price jump Median asking moved sharply (z=7.2)
- price jump Median asking moved sharply (z=4.9)
- price jump Median asking moved sharply (z=-9.7)
- price jump Median asking moved sharply (z=-11.8)
- price jump Median asking moved sharply (z=28.8)
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.