Triumph TR3
Flagged undervalued because inventory +0%, and sell-through 99%.
What It's Actually Worth
Blended value of a standard 66 yr, 41k mi example, ~$21.0K now. The green line weighs confirmed auction sales most heavily (the amber dots — what cars actually hammered for), blends in fast-selling "just-missed" listings, and lightly smooths out month-to-month composition noise.
Did our model work? 53% direction calls right
Each faint amber line is a forecast we would have made at that point in the past (12-mo horizon), drawn against what actually happened (blue). Over 70 scored forecasts: 53% got the direction right, median value error ±30%.
Walk-forward: each ghost uses only data available at that date — no hindsight. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Auction Scorecard gavel in range 9 in 10
We replayed 45 past auctions in this market — predicting each hammer price from market data before the sale (no hindsight). Typical miss: ±27%; the gavel landed inside our predicted range 9 in 10 of the time, and we lean slightly high on average.
| Sold | Car | Our range | Hammer | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-11 | 1959 · 18k mi | $10.6K–$38.7K | $25.5K | ✓ |
| 2026-06-02 | 1959 · 26k mi | $10.7K–$39.3K | $12.8K | ✓ |
| 2026-05-09 | 1961 · 33k mi | $11.8K–$43.3K | $41.5K | ✓ |
| 2026-05-06 | 1958 · 71k mi | $11.0K–$40.2K | $11.0K | ✓ |
| 2026-05-05 | 1960 · 36k mi | $12.1K–$44.3K | $25.8K | ✓ |
| 2026-05-05 | 1961 · 87k mi | $10.9K–$39.9K | $19.5K | ✓ |
| 2026-04-28 | 1962 · 77k mi | $11.5K–$42.3K | $32.0K | ✓ |
| 2026-04-27 | 1960 · 99k mi | $11.2K–$41.1K | $21.0K | ✓ |
Live now — calling it before the gavel
We're currently tracking 8 open auctions in this market. Here's our predicted hammer range for each — check back after they close.
| Closes | Car | Source | Our predicted range |
|---|---|---|---|
| open | 1960 · 66k mi | ebay | $8.3K–$44.7K ($19.3K) |
| open | 1960 · 66k mi | ebay | $8.6K–$46.2K ($19.9K) |
| open | 1960 · 21k mi | classic | $8.3K–$44.5K ($19.2K) |
| open | 1960 · 66k mi | ebay | $8.5K–$45.8K ($19.7K) |
| open | 1959 · 43k mi | classic | $8.4K–$44.3K ($19.3K) |
| open | 1960 | classic | $8.4K–$44.4K ($19.3K) |
| open | 1960 · 55k mi | classic | $8.1K–$42.8K ($18.6K) |
| open | 1961 · 0k mi | classic | $12.0K–$63.3K ($27.5K) |
No-lookahead: predictions are made before each auction closes; the scorecard grades confirmed sold auctions only (no-sales excluded). A modeled estimate, not a guarantee. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Where We Think It's Headed
Probability and range, not a single number. Wider = less certain (not bigger gains).
| Horizon | Direction | Probability | Confidence | Past accuracy |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 mo | DOWN | 52% | Low | 63% |
| 12 mo | DOWN | 52% | Low | 53% |
| 24 mo | DOWN | 53% | Low | 52% |
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Crystal Ball — What Leading Indicators Signal
Distinct from the trend forecast above: this blends all 8 leading indicators (each at its own lead time, de-duplicated so correlated ones don't double-count) into one signal. Leading indicators are collectively signaling higher over the next ~12 months (low conviction — 26% of weighted drivers agree), driven mainly by Dow Jones Industrial and 10-Year Treasury Yield, though Dow Jones Industrial points the other way.
Are the indicators agreeing?
Each bar is one driver's current push; longer = more weight. All one side = high conviction; split = low.
If You’d Bought in 2009
$100K invested 2009-08 → today (16.9 yrs), this car vs where else you could've put the money. Rebased to 100 at the start; the dashed line is inflation (break-even).
What This Market Follows
Specialty-car prices don't move in a vacuum. These economic indicators have historically led this market — tap one to see it shifted forward by its lead time, overlaid on the value line.
Dow Jones Industrial leads by about 7 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.37). Shown shifted forward 7 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Why We Think This
Current Inventory Snapshot
Comparable Markets
| Market | Undervaluation | Appreciation | Liquidity |
|---|---|---|---|
| Alfa Romeo 105 Sedan | 93 | 93 | 17 |
| Mercedes-Benz 190SL | 38 | 43 | 39 |
| BMW 2002 tii | 46 | 74 | 20 |
| Datsun 240Z | 41 | 56 | 38 |
| Datsun 280Z | 32 | 66 | 60 |
| Ferrari 308 | 38 | 64 | 34 |
| Ferrari 308 GT4 | 51 | 54 | 26 |
| Ferrari 328 | 58 | 46 | 42 |
Recent Signals & Alerts
- inventory spike Inventory spiked (robust z=3.4)
- inventory spike Inventory spiked (robust z=3.4)
- inventory spike Inventory spiked (robust z=3.4)
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.