Blended value of a standard 38 yr, 82k mi example, ~$12.8K now. The green line weighs confirmed auction sales most heavily (the amber dots — what cars actually hammered for), blends in fast-selling "just-missed" listings, and lightly smooths out month-to-month composition noise.
We're currently tracking 6 open auctions in this market. Here's our predicted hammer range for each — check back after they close.
Closes
Car
Source
Our predicted range
open
1988 · 45k mi
ebay
$5.8K–$31.4K ($13.5K)
open
1988 · 45k mi
ebay
$5.8K–$31.4K ($13.5K)
open
1991 · 167k mi
classic
$3.3K–$17.6K ($7.7K)
open
1986 · 65k mi
classic
$4.6K–$24.3K ($10.6K)
open
1987 · 119k mi
classic
$3.6K–$19.3K ($8.4K)
open
1986 · 60k mi
classic
$4.6K–$24.2K ($10.5K)
No-lookahead: predictions are made before each auction closes; the scorecard grades confirmed sold auctions only (no-sales excluded). A modeled estimate, not a guarantee. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Where We Think It's Headed
Probability and range, not a single number. Wider = less certain (not bigger gains).
Horizon
Direction
Probability
Confidence
Past accuracy
6 mo
UP
58%
Low
100%
12 mo
UP
62%
Low
—
24 mo
UP
67%
Low
—
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Lead Indicator Forecast
Some indicators move before this market does. 10-Year Treasury Yield has historically led it by about 14 months — so its recent move implies where prices head next (dashed). The solid green line is actual value through today; the shaded path is what the lead implies.
BECAUSE the 10-year Treasury yield rose 11%. THEREFORE, given its usual 14-month head start, we lean DOWN — about −1% (≈ −$85) over the next 14 months. Confidence: Moderate (correlation -0.82, 21 months overlap).
If You’d Bought in 2021
$100K invested 2021-10 → today (4.8 yrs), this car vs where else you could've put the money. Rebased to 100 at the start; the dashed line is inflation (break-even).
━ This car $183K━ S&P 500 $183K━ Gold $251K━ Luxury $81.7K━ Housing $122K₿ Bitcoin $104K (off-scale)
A solid investment that beat the market. The Toyota Cressida/Mark II roughly 1.8×'d your money (a real, inflation-adjusted 1.5× gain). It roughly matched the stock market. It beat housing (+50%). (Price only — a real round-trip also loses ~10–20% to buy/sell fees and carrying costs.)
Specialty-car prices don't move in a vacuum. These economic indicators have historically led this market — tap one to see it shifted forward by its lead time, overlaid on the value line.
10-Year Treasury Yield leads by about 14 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.82). Shown shifted forward 14 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Toyota Cressida/Mark II┄ 10-Year Treasury Yield, shifted +14mo
VIX Volatility Index leads by about 1 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.74). Shown shifted forward 1 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Toyota Cressida/Mark II┄ VIX Volatility Index, shifted +1mo
10-Year Treasury Yield leads by about 23 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.74). Shown shifted forward 23 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Toyota Cressida/Mark II┄ 10-Year Treasury Yield, shifted +23mo
30-Year Mortgage Rate leads by about 16 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.73). Shown shifted forward 16 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Toyota Cressida/Mark II┄ 30-Year Mortgage Rate, shifted +16mo
Gold (futures) leads by about 13 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.73). Shown shifted forward 13 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Toyota Cressida/Mark II┄ Gold (futures), shifted +13mo
Dow Jones Industrial leads by about 1 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.70). Shown shifted forward 1 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Toyota Cressida/Mark II┄ Dow Jones Industrial, shifted +1mo
Real Disposable Income per Capita leads by about 16 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.70). Shown shifted forward 16 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Toyota Cressida/Mark II┄ Real Disposable Income per Capita, shifted +16mo
Silver leads by about 2 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.69). Shown shifted forward 2 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Toyota Cressida/Mark II┄ Silver, shifted +2mo
Why We Think This
Appreciation Momentum
71
Undervaluation
75
Liquidity
31
Speculation Opportunity
81
Depreciation Risk
39
Overvaluation
85
inventory -0%inventory trend slope
sale prices +4.0%/momedian sale trend slope
asking trend +0.0%/momedian asking trend slope
120 days on marketmedian days on market
new-listing velocity 1% of activenew listing velocity
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.