Volkswagen Split-Window Bus
Flagged undervalued because asking -33% vs historic sold, inventory -0%, -37% vs 3-yr trend, and -30% vs 2-yr avg.
What It's Actually Worth
Blended value of a standard 61 yr, 18k mi example, ~$30.5K now. The green line weighs confirmed auction sales most heavily (the amber dots — what cars actually hammered for), blends in fast-selling "just-missed" listings, and lightly smooths out month-to-month composition noise.
Did our model work? 36% direction calls right
Each faint amber line is a forecast we would have made at that point in the past (12-mo horizon), drawn against what actually happened (blue). Over 42 scored forecasts: 36% got the direction right, median value error ±147%.
Walk-forward: each ghost uses only data available at that date — no hindsight. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Auction Scorecard gavel in range 8 in 10
We replayed 37 past auctions in this market — predicting each hammer price from market data before the sale (no hindsight). Typical miss: ±22%; the gavel landed inside our predicted range 8 in 10 of the time, and we lean slightly high on average.
| Sold | Car | Our range | Hammer | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-16 | 1960 · 84k mi | $13.5K–$49.3K | $23.0K | ✓ |
| 2026-07-05 | 1965 · 93k mi | $13.1K–$47.8K | $20.8K | ✓ |
| 2026-06-19 | 1964 · 4k mi | $23.3K–$85.1K | $52.0K | ✓ |
| 2026-04-24 | 1965 · 59k mi | $21.6K–$78.7K | $60.0K | ✓ |
| 2025-11-15 | 1959 · 0k mi | $42.8K–$156K | $96.3K | ✓ |
| 2025-11-14 | 1966 · 2k mi | $45.6K–$167K | $37.4K | ✗ |
| 2025-09-05 | 1967 · 99k mi | $15.0K–$79.6K | $49.9K | ✓ |
| 2025-09-05 | 1967 · 99k mi | $25.5K–$93.0K | $49.9K | ✓ |
Live now — calling it before the gavel
We're currently tracking 6 open auctions in this market. Here's our predicted hammer range for each — check back after they close.
| Closes | Car | Source | Our predicted range |
|---|---|---|---|
| open | 1965 · 84k mi | ebay | $10.6K–$57.1K ($24.6K) |
| open | 1964 · 55k mi | classic | $14.8K–$78.1K ($33.9K) |
| open | 1963 | classic | $16.4K–$87.0K ($37.8K) |
| open | 1965 | classic | $16.4K–$87.0K ($37.8K) |
| open | 1961 | classic | $16.4K–$87.0K ($37.8K) |
| open | 1965 · 84k mi | classic | $14.8K–$78.6K ($34.2K) |
No-lookahead: predictions are made before each auction closes; the scorecard grades confirmed sold auctions only (no-sales excluded). A modeled estimate, not a guarantee. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Where We Think It's Headed
Probability and range, not a single number. Wider = less certain (not bigger gains).
| Horizon | Direction | Probability | Confidence | Past accuracy |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 mo | DOWN | 55% | Low | 50% |
| 12 mo | DOWN | 56% | Low | 36% |
| 24 mo | DOWN | 58% | Low | 17% |
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
If You’d Bought in 2013
$100K invested 2013-08 → today (13.0 yrs), this car vs where else you could've put the money. Rebased to 100 at the start; the dashed line is inflation (break-even).
What This Market Follows
Specialty-car prices don't move in a vacuum. These economic indicators have historically led this market — tap one to see it shifted forward by its lead time, overlaid on the value line.
LVMH (luxury proxy ADR) leads by about 13 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.71). Shown shifted forward 13 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Why We Think This
Current Inventory Snapshot
Comparable Markets
| Market | Undervaluation | Appreciation | Liquidity |
|---|---|---|---|
| Alfa Romeo 105 Sedan | 66 | 43 | 36 |
| Mercedes-Benz 190SL | 41 | 45 | 54 |
| BMW 2002 tii | 47 | 56 | 20 |
| Datsun 240Z | 50 | 48 | 28 |
| Datsun 280Z | 38 | 64 | 52 |
| Ferrari 308 | 36 | 50 | 52 |
| Ferrari 308 GT4 | 54 | 47 | 16 |
| Ferrari 328 | 55 | 40 | 53 |
Recent Signals & Alerts
- inventory shortage Inventory dropped (robust z=-3.0)
- price jump Median asking moved sharply (z=4.5)
- price jump Median asking moved sharply (z=-4.1)
- inventory shortage Inventory dropped (robust z=-3.1)
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.