Flagged undervalued because inventory -1%, and -87% vs 2-yr avg.
What It's Actually Worth
Blended value of a standard 56 yr, 18k mi example, ~$12.3K now. The green line weighs confirmed auction sales most heavily (the amber dots — what cars actually hammered for), blends in fast-selling "just-missed" listings, and lightly smooths out month-to-month composition noise.
Each faint amber line is a forecast we would have made at that point in the past (12-mo horizon), drawn against what actually happened (blue). Over 11 scored forecasts: 36% got the direction right, median value error ±1217%.
━ actual╱ past predictions (ghosts)
Walk-forward: each ghost uses only data available at that date — no hindsight. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Auction Scorecard live
Live now — calling it before the gavel
We're currently tracking 2 open auctions in this market. Here's our predicted hammer range for each — check back after they close.
Closes
Car
Source
Our predicted range
open
2011 · 7k mi
ebay
$6.7K–$35.8K ($15.4K)
open
2011 · 7k mi
ebay
$2.6K–$13.9K ($6.0K)
No-lookahead: predictions are made before each auction closes; the scorecard grades confirmed sold auctions only (no-sales excluded). A modeled estimate, not a guarantee. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Where We Think It's Headed
Probability and range, not a single number. Wider = less certain (not bigger gains).
Horizon
Direction
Probability
Confidence
Past accuracy
6 mo
UP
51%
Low
53%
12 mo
UP
52%
Low
36%
24 mo
UP
54%
Low
—
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Lead Indicator Forecast
Some indicators move before this market does. LVMH (luxury proxy ADR) has historically led it by about 11 months — so its recent move implies where prices head next (dashed). The solid green line is actual value through today; the shaded path is what the lead implies.
BECAUSE luxury-goods demand fell 12%. THEREFORE, given its usual 11-month head start, we lean UP — about +1% (≈ +$78) over the next 11 months. Confidence: Moderate (correlation +0.66, 23 months overlap).
If You’d Bought in 2016
$100K invested 2016-10 → today (9.8 yrs), this car vs where else you could've put the money. Rebased to 100 at the start; the dashed line is inflation (break-even).
━ This car $104K━ S&P 500 $434K━ Gold $351K━ Luxury $429K━ Housing $182K₿ Bitcoin ×91 (off-scale)
Lost ground to inflation. The Roadster roughly 1.0×'d your money (a real 24% LOSS to inflation). It LAGGED the stock market by about 76% — the same money in the S&P 500 would be larger. It trailed housing (-43%). (Price only — a real round-trip also loses ~10–20% to buy/sell fees and carrying costs.)
Specialty-car prices don't move in a vacuum. These economic indicators have historically led this market — tap one to see it shifted forward by its lead time, overlaid on the value line.
LVMH (luxury proxy ADR) leads by about 11 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.66). Shown shifted forward 11 months so its turns line up with the market's.
10Y-2Y Yield Spread leads by about 6 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.65). Shown shifted forward 6 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Roadster┄ 10Y-2Y Yield Spread, shifted +6mo
Silver leads by about 5 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.64). Shown shifted forward 5 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Roadster┄ Silver, shifted +5mo
Gold (futures) leads by about 5 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.63). Shown shifted forward 5 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Roadster┄ Gold (futures), shifted +5mo
Trade-Weighted Dollar Index leads by about 5 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.62). Shown shifted forward 5 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Roadster┄ Trade-Weighted Dollar Index, shifted +5mo
Housing Starts leads by about 15 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.61). Shown shifted forward 15 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Roadster┄ Housing Starts, shifted +15mo
Russell 2000 (small cap) leads by about 2 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.61). Shown shifted forward 2 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Roadster┄ Russell 2000 (small cap), shifted +2mo
Dow Jones Industrial leads by about 2 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.59). Shown shifted forward 2 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Roadster┄ Dow Jones Industrial, shifted +2mo
Why We Think This
Appreciation Momentum
26
Undervaluation
86
Liquidity
58
Speculation Opportunity
64
Depreciation Risk
44
Overvaluation
23
inventory -1%inventory trend slope
-87% vs 2-yr avgpct vs trailing 24mo
asking trend -0.3%/momedian asking trend slope
-86% vs 12-mo avgpct vs trailing 12mo
new-listing velocity 8% of activenew listing velocity
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.