BMW R100
Flagged undervalued because asking -17% vs historic sold, sell-through 100%, -46% vs 2-yr avg, and -48% vs 3-yr trend.
What It's Actually Worth
Blended value of a standard 44 yr, 16k mi example, ~$5.9K now. The green line weighs confirmed auction sales most heavily (the amber dots — what cars actually hammered for), blends in fast-selling "just-missed" listings, and lightly smooths out month-to-month composition noise.
Did our model work? 43% direction calls right
Each faint amber line is a forecast we would have made at that point in the past (12-mo horizon), drawn against what actually happened (blue). Over 23 scored forecasts: 43% got the direction right, median value error ±198%.
Walk-forward: each ghost uses only data available at that date — no hindsight. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Auction Scorecard gavel in range 7 in 10
We replayed 47 past auctions in this market — predicting each hammer price from market data before the sale (no hindsight). Typical miss: ±41%; the gavel landed inside our predicted range 7 in 10 of the time.
| Sold | Car | Our range | Hammer | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-23 | 1995 · 7k mi | $3.4K–$12.2K | $4.3K | ✓ |
| 2026-06-20 | 1994 · 14k mi | $3.4K–$12.2K | $9.0K | ✓ |
| 2026-06-19 | 1988 · 13k mi | $3.4K–$12.5K | $8.0K | ✓ |
| 2026-06-09 | 1984 · 61k mi | $2.8K–$10.3K | $3.3K | ✓ |
| 2026-06-06 | 1984 · 5k mi | $3.2K–$11.6K | $2.5K | ✗ |
| 2026-05-15 | 1994 · 0k mi | $5.2K–$19.0K | $10.8K | ✓ |
| 2026-05-14 | 1978 · 26k mi | $3.1K–$11.2K | $8.0K | ✓ |
| 2026-05-13 | 1977 · 16k mi | $3.2K–$11.6K | $3.5K | ✓ |
Live now — calling it before the gavel
We're currently tracking 3 open auctions in this market. Here's our predicted hammer range for each — check back after they close.
| Closes | Car | Source | Our predicted range |
|---|---|---|---|
| open | 1984 · 0k mi | classic | $4.1K–$22.2K ($9.6K) |
| open | 1978 · 42k mi | classic | $2.6K–$14.0K ($6.0K) |
| open | 1993 · 50k mi | classic | $2.5K–$13.1K ($5.7K) |
No-lookahead: predictions are made before each auction closes; the scorecard grades confirmed sold auctions only (no-sales excluded). A modeled estimate, not a guarantee. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Where We Think It's Headed
Probability and range, not a single number. Wider = less certain (not bigger gains).
| Horizon | Direction | Probability | Confidence | Past accuracy |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 mo | UP | 51% | Low | 62% |
| 12 mo | UP | 52% | Low | 43% |
| 24 mo | UP | 53% | Low | 36% |
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Lead Indicator Forecast
Some indicators move before this market does. Advance Retail Sales has historically led it by about 3 months — so its recent move implies where prices head next (dashed). The solid green line is actual value through today; the shaded path is what the lead implies.
If You’d Bought in 2014
$100K invested 2014-07 → today (12.1 yrs), this car vs where else you could've put the money. Rebased to 100 at the start; the dashed line is inflation (break-even).
What This Market Follows
Specialty-car prices don't move in a vacuum. These economic indicators have historically led this market — tap one to see it shifted forward by its lead time, overlaid on the value line.
Advance Retail Sales leads by about 3 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.57). Shown shifted forward 3 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Why We Think This
Current Inventory Snapshot
Comparable Markets
| Market | Undervaluation | Appreciation | Liquidity |
|---|---|---|---|
| Alfa Romeo 105 Sedan | 66 | 43 | 36 |
| Mercedes-Benz 190SL | 41 | 45 | 54 |
| BMW 2002 tii | 47 | 56 | 20 |
| Datsun 240Z | 50 | 48 | 28 |
| Datsun 280Z | 38 | 64 | 52 |
| Ferrari 308 | 36 | 50 | 52 |
| Ferrari 308 GT4 | 54 | 47 | 16 |
| Ferrari 328 | 55 | 40 | 53 |
Recent Signals & Alerts
- price jump Median asking moved sharply (z=15.1)
- price jump Median asking moved sharply (z=-134.9)
- price jump Median asking moved sharply (z=4.0)
- price jump Median asking moved sharply (z=-4.9)
- price jump Median asking moved sharply (z=-50.6)
- price jump Median asking moved sharply (z=-17.5)
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.