BMW R100
Flagged undervalued because asking -18% vs historic sold, and sell-through 100%.
What It's Actually Worth
Blended value of a standard 45 yr, 24k mi example, ~$6.1K now. The green line weighs confirmed auction sales most heavily (the amber dots — what cars actually hammered for), blends in fast-selling "just-missed" listings, and lightly smooths out month-to-month composition noise.
Did our model work? 41% direction calls right
Each faint amber line is a forecast we would have made at that point in the past (12-mo horizon), drawn against what actually happened (blue). Over 22 scored forecasts: 41% got the direction right, median value error ±244%.
Walk-forward: each ghost uses only data available at that date — no hindsight. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Auction Scorecard gavel in range 7 in 10
We replayed 42 past auctions in this market — predicting each hammer price from market data before the sale (no hindsight). Typical miss: ±43%; the gavel landed inside our predicted range 7 in 10 of the time, and we lean slightly high on average.
| Sold | Car | Our range | Hammer | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-15 | 1994 · 0k mi | $5.0K–$18.4K | $10.8K | ✓ |
| 2026-05-14 | 1978 · 26k mi | $3.2K–$11.7K | $8.0K | ✓ |
| 2026-05-13 | 1977 · 16k mi | $3.1K–$11.5K | $3.5K | ✓ |
| 2026-05-12 | 1978 · 9k mi | $3.3K–$12.0K | $14.3K | ✗ |
| 2026-05-12 | 1979 · 3k mi | $3.9K–$14.2K | $12.1K | ✓ |
| 2026-04-22 | 1993 · 41k mi | $3.3K–$11.9K | $5.8K | ✓ |
| 2026-04-09 | 1990 · 45k mi | $3.2K–$11.7K | $14.6K | ✗ |
| 2026-03-25 | 1984 · 82k mi | $2.7K–$10.1K | $3.7K | ✓ |
Live now — calling it before the gavel
We're currently tracking 1 open auction in this market. Here's our predicted hammer range for each — check back after they close.
| Closes | Car | Source | Our predicted range |
|---|---|---|---|
| open | 1993 · 50k mi | classic | $2.5K–$13.1K ($5.7K) |
No-lookahead: predictions are made before each auction closes; the scorecard grades confirmed sold auctions only (no-sales excluded). A modeled estimate, not a guarantee. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Where We Think It's Headed
Probability and range, not a single number. Wider = less certain (not bigger gains).
| Horizon | Direction | Probability | Confidence | Past accuracy |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 mo | UP | 51% | Low | 57% |
| 12 mo | UP | 52% | Low | 41% |
| 24 mo | UP | 54% | Low | 50% |
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Lead Indicator Forecast
Some indicators move before this market does. Advance Retail Sales has historically led it by about 3 months — so its recent move implies where prices head next (dashed). The solid green line is actual value through today; the shaded path is what the lead implies.
If You’d Bought in 2014
$100K invested 2014-07 → today (12.0 yrs), this car vs where else you could've put the money. Rebased to 100 at the start; the dashed line is inflation (break-even).
What This Market Follows
Specialty-car prices don't move in a vacuum. These economic indicators have historically led this market — tap one to see it shifted forward by its lead time, overlaid on the value line.
Advance Retail Sales leads by about 3 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.60). Shown shifted forward 3 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Why We Think This
Current Inventory Snapshot
Comparable Markets
| Market | Undervaluation | Appreciation | Liquidity |
|---|---|---|---|
| Alfa Romeo 105 Sedan | 93 | 93 | 17 |
| Mercedes-Benz 190SL | 38 | 43 | 39 |
| BMW 2002 tii | 46 | 74 | 20 |
| Datsun 240Z | 41 | 56 | 38 |
| Datsun 280Z | 32 | 66 | 60 |
| Ferrari 308 | 38 | 64 | 34 |
| Ferrari 308 GT4 | 51 | 54 | 26 |
| Ferrari 328 | 58 | 46 | 42 |
Recent Signals & Alerts
- price jump Median asking moved sharply (z=4.0)
- price jump Median asking moved sharply (z=-4.9)
- price jump Median asking moved sharply (z=-50.6)
- price jump Median asking moved sharply (z=-17.5)
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.