Porsche Panamera
Flagged undervalued because inventory -0%, asking +3% vs historic sold, +7% vs 3-yr trend, and +6% vs 2-yr avg.
What It's Actually Worth
Blended value of a standard 9 yr, 50k mi example, ~$38.7K now. The green line weighs confirmed auction sales most heavily (the amber dots — what cars actually hammered for), blends in fast-selling "just-missed" listings, and lightly smooths out month-to-month composition noise.
Did our model work? 47% direction calls right
Each faint amber line is a forecast we would have made at that point in the past (12-mo horizon), drawn against what actually happened (blue). Over 55 scored forecasts: 47% got the direction right, median value error ±17%.
Walk-forward: each ghost uses only data available at that date — no hindsight. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Auction Scorecard gavel in range 7 in 10
We replayed 377 past auctions in this market — predicting each hammer price from market data before the sale (no hindsight). Typical miss: ±33%; the gavel landed inside our predicted range 7 in 10 of the time, and we lean slightly high on average.
| Sold | Car | Our range | Hammer | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-22 | 2013 · 63k mi | $19.0K–$50.5K | $30.3K | ✓ |
| 2026-09-21 | 2018 · 95k mi | $13.6K–$36.1K | $46.8K | ✗ |
| 2026-09-18 | 2018 · 25k mi | $39.6K–$105K | $86.0K | ✓ |
| 2026-09-16 | 2018 · 68k mi | $17.8K–$47.5K | $66.5K | ✗ |
| 2026-09-16 | 2017 · 31k mi | $34.8K–$92.6K | $44.9K | ✓ |
| 2026-09-15 | 2016 · 54k mi | $22.1K–$58.9K | $23.0K | ✓ |
| 2026-09-14 | 2013 · 46k mi | $26.0K–$69.2K | $27.0K | ✓ |
| 2026-09-12 | 2013 · 8k mi | $44.6K–$119K | $45.0K | ✓ |
Live now — calling it before the gavel
We're currently tracking 8 open auctions in this market. Here's our predicted hammer range for each — check back after they close.
| Closes | Car | Source | Our predicted range |
|---|---|---|---|
| open | 2022 · 25k mi | BaT | $33.6K–$122K ($64.0K) |
| open | 2017 | C&B | $20.3K–$73.7K ($38.7K) |
| open | 2016 · 54k mi | BaT | $18.8K–$68.1K ($35.8K) |
| open | 2018 · 28k mi | BaT | $31.4K–$114K ($59.8K) |
| open | 2021 · 15k mi | BaT | $36.9K–$134K ($70.2K) |
| open | 2015 · 87k mi | ebay | $12.6K–$45.8K ($24.1K) |
| open | 2012 · 55k mi | ebay | $18.5K–$67.1K ($35.2K) |
| open | 2023 · 10k mi | ebay | $37.7K–$136K ($71.5K) |
No-lookahead: predictions are made before each auction closes; the scorecard grades confirmed sold auctions only (no-sales excluded). A modeled estimate, not a guarantee. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Where We Think It's Headed
Probability and range, not a single number. Wider = less certain (not bigger gains).
| Horizon | Direction | Probability | Confidence | Past accuracy |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 mo | FLAT | 50% | Low | 61% |
| 12 mo | UP | 51% | Low | 47% |
| 24 mo | UP | 53% | Low | 49% |
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Lead Indicator Forecast
Some indicators move before this market does. 2-Year Treasury Yield has historically led it by about 18 months — so its recent move implies where prices head next (dashed). The solid green line is actual value through today; the shaded path is what the lead implies.
Crystal Ball — What Leading Indicators Signal
Distinct from the trend forecast above: this blends all 8 leading indicators (each at its own lead time, de-duplicated so correlated ones don't double-count) into one signal. Leading indicators are collectively signaling higher over the next ~12 months (high conviction — 100% of weighted drivers agree), driven mainly by 2-Year Treasury Yield and Unemployment Rate.
Are the indicators agreeing?
Each bar is one driver's current push; longer = more weight. All one side = high conviction; split = low.
If You’d Bought in 2015
$100K invested 2015-01 → today (11.7 yrs), this car vs where else you could've put the money. Rebased to 100 at the start; the dashed line is inflation (break-even).
What This Market Follows
Specialty-car prices don't move in a vacuum. These economic indicators have historically led this market — tap one to see it shifted forward by its lead time, overlaid on the value line.
US Regular Gas Price leads by about 0 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.60). Shown shifted forward 0 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Why We Think This
Current Inventory Snapshot
Comparable Markets
| Market | Undervaluation | Appreciation | Liquidity |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aston Martin DB4 | 61 | 48 | 63 |
| Aston Martin DB5 | 16 | 50 | — |
| Bentley Continental (S1, S2, S3) | 53 | 38 | 60 |
| Buick Riviera | 61 | 43 | 48 |
| Mercedes-Benz CL-Class | 49 | 50 | 34 |
| Mercedes-Benz CLK-Class | 56 | 39 | 40 |
Recent Signals & Alerts
- vin returned higher VIN relisted +$8,662 vs prior
- vin returned lower VIN relisted $-31,395 vs prior
- price jump Median asking moved sharply (z=5.9)
- undisclosed title change VIN previously reported non-clean now listed clean/undisclosed
- vin returned lower VIN relisted $-5,750 vs prior
- price jump Median asking moved sharply (z=4.3)
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.