Flagged undervalued because inventory -2%, asking -18% vs historic sold, -74% vs 2-yr avg, and -73% vs 3-yr trend.
What It's Actually Worth
Blended value of a standard 58 yr, 5k mi example, ~$22.0K now. The green line weighs confirmed auction sales most heavily (the amber dots — what cars actually hammered for), blends in fast-selling "just-missed" listings, and lightly smooths out month-to-month composition noise.
Each faint amber line is a forecast we would have made at that point in the past (12-mo horizon), drawn against what actually happened (blue). Over 32 scored forecasts: 59% got the direction right, median value error ±457%.
━ actual╱ past predictions (ghosts)
Walk-forward: each ghost uses only data available at that date — no hindsight. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Auction Scorecard live
Live now — calling it before the gavel
We're currently tracking 1 open auction in this market. Here's our predicted hammer range for each — check back after they close.
Closes
Car
Source
Our predicted range
open
1971 · 79k mi
ebay
$9.8K–$51.7K ($22.5K)
No-lookahead: predictions are made before each auction closes; the scorecard grades confirmed sold auctions only (no-sales excluded). A modeled estimate, not a guarantee. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Where We Think It's Headed
Probability and range, not a single number. Wider = less certain (not bigger gains).
Horizon
Direction
Probability
Confidence
Past accuracy
6 mo
UP
52%
Low
74%
12 mo
UP
53%
Low
59%
24 mo
UP
54%
Low
75%
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Lead Indicator Forecast
Some indicators move before this market does. Ethereum (USD) has historically led it by about 16 months — so its recent move implies where prices head next (dashed). The solid green line is actual value through today; the shaded path is what the lead implies.
BECAUSE Ethereum (USD) fell 7%. THEREFORE, given its usual 16-month head start, we lean DOWN — about −2% (≈ −$452) over the next 16 months. Confidence: High (correlation -0.56, 39 months overlap).
Crystal Ball — What Leading Indicators Signal
Distinct from the trend forecast above: this blends all 8 leading indicators (each at its own lead time, de-duplicated so correlated ones don't double-count) into one signal. Leading indicators are collectively signaling lower over the next ~12 months (moderate conviction — 46% of weighted drivers agree), driven mainly by Ethereum (USD) and Gold (futures), though Ethereum (USD) points the other way.
⚠ The price trend and leading indicators disagree — momentum may be running ahead of the fundamentals.
Are the indicators agreeing?
Each bar is one driver's current push; longer = more weight. All one side = high conviction; split = low.
If You’d Bought in 2011
$100K invested 2011-10 → today (14.8 yrs), this car vs where else you could've put the money. Rebased to 100 at the start; the dashed line is inflation (break-even).
━ This car $202K━ S&P 500 $749K━ Gold $238K━ Luxury $631K━ Housing $238K
Solid store of value, but lagged the stock market. The Volvo P1800 roughly 2.0×'d your money (a real, inflation-adjusted 1.4× gain). It LAGGED the stock market by about 73% — the same money in the S&P 500 would be larger. It trailed housing (-15%). (Price only — a real round-trip also loses ~10–20% to buy/sell fees and carrying costs.)
Specialty-car prices don't move in a vacuum. These economic indicators have historically led this market — tap one to see it shifted forward by its lead time, overlaid on the value line.
LVMH (luxury proxy ADR) leads by about 11 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.64). Shown shifted forward 11 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Case-Shiller National Home Price leads by about 8 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.59). Shown shifted forward 8 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Volvo P1800┄ Case-Shiller National Home Price, shifted +8mo
Trade-Weighted Dollar Index leads by about 0 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.59). Shown shifted forward 0 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Volvo P1800┄ Trade-Weighted Dollar Index, shifted +0mo
Housing Starts leads by about 18 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.57). Shown shifted forward 18 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Volvo P1800┄ Housing Starts, shifted +18mo
Ethereum (USD) leads by about 16 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.56). Shown shifted forward 16 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Volvo P1800┄ Ethereum (USD), shifted +16mo
M2 Money Supply leads by about 24 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.55). Shown shifted forward 24 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Volvo P1800┄ M2 Money Supply, shifted +24mo
Russell 2000 (small cap) leads by about 13 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.55). Shown shifted forward 13 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Volvo P1800┄ Russell 2000 (small cap), shifted +13mo
Real Disposable Income per Capita leads by about 22 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.52). Shown shifted forward 22 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Volvo P1800┄ Real Disposable Income per Capita, shifted +22mo
Why We Think This
Appreciation Momentum
51
Undervaluation
67
Liquidity
40
Speculation Opportunity
60
Depreciation Risk
56
Overvaluation
31
inventory -2%inventory trend slope
asking -18% vs historic soldasking vs historic spread
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.