Chevrolet Nova
Flagged undervalued because asking -5% vs historic sold.
What It's Actually Worth
Blended value of a standard 56 yr, 29k mi example, ~$42.1K now. The green line weighs confirmed auction sales most heavily (the amber dots — what cars actually hammered for), blends in fast-selling "just-missed" listings, and lightly smooths out month-to-month composition noise.
Did our model work? 65% direction calls right
Each faint amber line is a forecast we would have made at that point in the past (12-mo horizon), drawn against what actually happened (blue). Over 145 scored forecasts: 65% got the direction right, median value error ±16%.
Walk-forward: each ghost uses only data available at that date — no hindsight. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Auction Scorecard gavel in range 8 in 10
We replayed 435 past auctions in this market — predicting each hammer price from market data before the sale (no hindsight). Typical miss: ±37%; the gavel landed inside our predicted range 8 in 10 of the time, and we lean slightly high on average.
| Sold | Car | Our range | Hammer | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-18 | 1962 | $18.1K–$95.5K | $13.9K | ✗ |
| 2026-05-28 | 1973 · 5k mi | $23.6K–$86.6K | $34.0K | ✓ |
| 2026-05-27 | 1973 · 15k mi | $27.0K–$99.0K | $24.5K | ✗ |
| 2026-05-26 | 1972 · 50k mi | $21.3K–$78.0K | $25.0K | ✓ |
| 2026-05-15 | 1966 · 0k mi | $29.1K–$107K | $154K | ✗ |
| 2026-05-15 | 1967 · 1k mi | $27.2K–$99.7K | $143K | ✗ |
| 2026-05-15 | 1971 · 72k mi | $22.6K–$82.7K | $33.0K | ✓ |
| 2026-05-14 | 1967 · 1k mi | $28.1K–$103K | $135K | ✗ |
Live now — calling it before the gavel
We're currently tracking 8 open auctions in this market. Here's our predicted hammer range for each — check back after they close.
| Closes | Car | Source | Our predicted range |
|---|---|---|---|
| open | 1971 · 11k mi | ebay | $21.1K–$113K ($48.9K) |
| open | 1964 · 91k mi | ebay | $19.4K–$105K ($45.1K) |
| open | 1967 · 12k mi | ebay | $21.1K–$114K ($49.0K) |
| open | 1964 · 14k mi | ebay | $21.0K–$113K ($48.7K) |
| open | 1966 · 1k mi | ebay | $20.3K–$109K ($47.1K) |
| open | 1972 · 100k mi | ebay | $18.3K–$98.4K ($42.4K) |
| open | 1963 | BaT | $18.1K–$97.6K ($42.1K) |
| open | 1974 · 68k mi | ebay | $17.0K–$91.6K ($39.5K) |
No-lookahead: predictions are made before each auction closes; the scorecard grades confirmed sold auctions only (no-sales excluded). A modeled estimate, not a guarantee. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Where We Think It's Headed
Probability and range, not a single number. Wider = less certain (not bigger gains).
| Horizon | Direction | Probability | Confidence | Past accuracy |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 mo | DOWN | 51% | Low | 67% |
| 12 mo | UP | 50% | Low | 65% |
| 24 mo | UP | 50% | Low | 59% |
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Lead Indicator Forecast
Some indicators move before this market does. Ethereum (USD) has historically led it by about 2 months — so its recent move implies where prices head next (dashed). The solid green line is actual value through today; the shaded path is what the lead implies.
Crystal Ball — What Leading Indicators Signal
Distinct from the trend forecast above: this blends all 8 leading indicators (each at its own lead time, de-duplicated so correlated ones don't double-count) into one signal. Leading indicators are collectively signaling higher over the next ~12 months (moderate conviction — 44% of weighted drivers agree), driven mainly by Ethereum (USD) and Trade-Weighted Dollar Index, though Ethereum (USD) points the other way.
Are the indicators agreeing?
Each bar is one driver's current push; longer = more weight. All one side = high conviction; split = low.
If You’d Bought in 2008
$100K invested 2008-03 → today (18.3 yrs), this car vs where else you could've put the money. Rebased to 100 at the start; the dashed line is inflation (break-even).
What This Market Follows
Specialty-car prices don't move in a vacuum. These economic indicators have historically led this market — tap one to see it shifted forward by its lead time, overlaid on the value line.
Ethereum (USD) leads by about 2 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.43). Shown shifted forward 2 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Why We Think This
Current Inventory Snapshot
Comparable Markets
| Market | Undervaluation | Appreciation | Liquidity |
|---|---|---|---|
| Alfa Romeo 105 Sedan | 93 | 93 | 17 |
| Mercedes-Benz 190SL | 38 | 43 | 39 |
| BMW 2002 tii | 46 | 74 | 20 |
| Datsun 240Z | 41 | 56 | 38 |
| Datsun 280Z | 32 | 66 | 60 |
| Ferrari 308 | 38 | 64 | 34 |
| Ferrari 308 GT4 | 51 | 54 | 26 |
| Ferrari 328 | 58 | 46 | 42 |
Recent Signals & Alerts
- vin returned higher VIN relisted +$8,800 vs prior
- vin returned higher VIN relisted +$8,800 vs prior
- vin returned higher VIN relisted +$8,800 vs prior
- vin returned higher VIN relisted +$6,800 vs prior
- vin returned higher VIN relisted +$4,050 vs prior
- vin returned higher VIN relisted +$3,800 vs prior
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.