Chevrolet Nova
Flagged undervalued because -13% vs 2-yr avg, -14% vs 3-yr trend, sell-through 89%, and asking +2% vs historic sold.
What It's Actually Worth
Blended value of a standard 57 yr, 26k mi example, ~$40.5K now. The green line weighs confirmed auction sales most heavily (the amber dots — what cars actually hammered for), blends in fast-selling "just-missed" listings, and lightly smooths out month-to-month composition noise.
Did our model work? 63% direction calls right
Each faint amber line is a forecast we would have made at that point in the past (12-mo horizon), drawn against what actually happened (blue). Over 147 scored forecasts: 63% got the direction right, median value error ±18%.
Walk-forward: each ghost uses only data available at that date — no hindsight. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Auction Scorecard gavel in range 8 in 10
We replayed 481 past auctions in this market — predicting each hammer price from market data before the sale (no hindsight). Typical miss: ±35%; the gavel landed inside our predicted range 8 in 10 of the time, and we lean slightly high on average.
| Sold | Car | Our range | Hammer | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-21 | 1966 | $16.8K–$90.8K | $59.9K | ✓ |
| 2026-09-04 | 1970 · 92k mi | $20.0K–$73.4K | $20.5K | ✓ |
| 2026-09-03 | 1963 · 48k mi | $19.1K–$70.2K | $16.0K | ✗ |
| 2026-08-31 | 1978 · 89k mi | $20.6K–$75.5K | $8.5K | ✗ |
| 2026-08-31 | 1966 · 24k mi | $23.0K–$84.4K | $8.2K | ✗ |
| 2026-08-29 | 1967 · 22k mi | $23.7K–$86.9K | $46.3K | ✓ |
| 2026-08-27 | 1969 · 1k mi | $25.0K–$91.7K | $67.0K | ✓ |
| 2026-08-21 | 1967 | $16.9K–$90.7K | $79.6K | ✓ |
Live now — calling it before the gavel
We're currently tracking 8 open auctions in this market. Here's our predicted hammer range for each — check back after they close.
| Closes | Car | Source | Our predicted range |
|---|---|---|---|
| open | 1967 · 12k mi | ebay | $18.1K–$98.5K ($42.3K) |
| open | 1966 · 3k mi | ebay | $17.5K–$95.2K ($40.8K) |
| open | 1972 · 100k mi | ebay | $15.7K–$85.5K ($36.7K) |
| open | 1978 · 35k mi | ebay | $15.7K–$85.5K ($36.7K) |
| open | 1967 · 68k mi | ebay | $15.5K–$84.1K ($36.1K) |
| open | 1966 · 0k mi | ebay | $21.8K–$118K ($50.8K) |
| open | 1967 · 14k mi | ebay | $18.2K–$99.0K ($42.5K) |
| open | 1974 | hagerty | $17.3K–$93.9K ($40.3K) |
No-lookahead: predictions are made before each auction closes; the scorecard grades confirmed sold auctions only (no-sales excluded). A modeled estimate, not a guarantee. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Where We Think It's Headed
Probability and range, not a single number. Wider = less certain (not bigger gains).
| Horizon | Direction | Probability | Confidence | Past accuracy |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 mo | UP | 49% | Low | 67% |
| 12 mo | UP | 49% | Low | 63% |
| 24 mo | UP | 50% | Low | 59% |
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Lead Indicator Forecast
Some indicators move before this market does. Ethereum (USD) has historically led it by about 3 months — so its recent move implies where prices head next (dashed). The solid green line is actual value through today; the shaded path is what the lead implies.
Crystal Ball — What Leading Indicators Signal
Distinct from the trend forecast above: this blends all 8 leading indicators (each at its own lead time, de-duplicated so correlated ones don't double-count) into one signal. Leading indicators are collectively signaling lower over the next ~12 months (moderate conviction — 54% of weighted drivers agree), driven mainly by Ethereum (USD) and Trade-Weighted Dollar Index, though Trade-Weighted Dollar Index points the other way.
Are the indicators agreeing?
Each bar is one driver's current push; longer = more weight. All one side = high conviction; split = low.
If You’d Bought in 2008
$100K invested 2008-03 → today (18.5 yrs), this car vs where else you could've put the money. Rebased to 100 at the start; the dashed line is inflation (break-even).
What This Market Follows
Specialty-car prices don't move in a vacuum. These economic indicators have historically led this market — tap one to see it shifted forward by its lead time, overlaid on the value line.
Ethereum (USD) leads by about 3 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.58). Shown shifted forward 3 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Why We Think This
Current Inventory Snapshot
Comparable Markets
| Market | Undervaluation | Appreciation | Liquidity |
|---|---|---|---|
| Alfa Romeo 105 Sedan | 84 | 22 | 32 |
| Mercedes-Benz 190SL | 51 | 40 | 56 |
| BMW 2002 tii | 60 | 33 | 13 |
| Datsun 240Z | 49 | 56 | 44 |
| Datsun 280Z | 48 | 45 | 59 |
| Ferrari 308 | 38 | 55 | 45 |
| Ferrari 308 GT4 | 54 | 47 | 15 |
| Ferrari 328 | 44 | 53 | 51 |
Recent Signals & Alerts
- vin returned higher VIN relisted +$10,700 vs prior
- price jump Median asking moved sharply (z=20.7)
- price jump Median asking moved sharply (z=-28.2)
- price jump Median asking moved sharply (z=28.9)
- price jump Median asking moved sharply (z=26.7)
- vin returned higher VIN relisted +$5,800 vs prior
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.