Ford Model A
Flagged undervalued because -11% vs 2-yr avg, and -10% vs 3-yr trend.
What It's Actually Worth
Blended value of a standard 80 yr, 8k mi example, ~$18.9K now. The green line weighs confirmed auction sales most heavily (the amber dots — what cars actually hammered for), blends in fast-selling "just-missed" listings, and lightly smooths out month-to-month composition noise.
Did our model work? 60% direction calls right
Each faint amber line is a forecast we would have made at that point in the past (12-mo horizon), drawn against what actually happened (blue). Over 167 scored forecasts: 60% got the direction right, median value error ±23%.
Walk-forward: each ghost uses only data available at that date — no hindsight. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Auction Scorecard gavel in range 9 in 10
We replayed 456 past auctions in this market — predicting each hammer price from market data before the sale (no hindsight). Typical miss: ±29%; the gavel landed inside our predicted range 9 in 10 of the time, and we lean slightly high on average.
| Sold | Car | Our range | Hammer | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-22 | 1930 | $8.2K–$44.2K | $11.0K | ✓ |
| 2026-09-22 | 1930 · 10k mi | $10.4K–$38.1K | $10.3K | ✗ |
| 2026-09-18 | 1929 · 1k mi | $11.1K–$40.8K | $18.0K | ✓ |
| 2026-09-18 | 1930 · 10k mi | $10.4K–$38.1K | $15.0K | ✓ |
| 2026-09-11 | 1930 · 12k mi | $10.0K–$36.8K | $27.0K | ✓ |
| 2026-09-09 | 1930 · 47k mi | $8.4K–$30.8K | $16.0K | ✓ |
| 2026-09-08 | 1930 · 0k mi | $11.3K–$41.5K | $14.5K | ✓ |
| 2026-09-08 | 1929 · 89k mi | $8.3K–$30.6K | $8.8K | ✓ |
Live now — calling it before the gavel
We're currently tracking 8 open auctions in this market. Here's our predicted hammer range for each — check back after they close.
| Closes | Car | Source | Our predicted range |
|---|---|---|---|
| open | 1931 · 0k mi | ebay | $8.7K–$47.4K ($20.3K) |
| open | 1931 · 1k mi | ebay | $8.7K–$47.0K ($20.2K) |
| open | 1931 · 2k mi | ebay | $8.5K–$46.2K ($19.8K) |
| open | 1930 · 3k mi | ebay | $8.4K–$45.6K ($19.6K) |
| open | 1930 · 6k mi | ebay | $8.2K–$44.8K ($19.2K) |
| open | 1931 | hemmings | $8.1K–$44.0K ($18.9K) |
| open | 1931 · 1k mi | ebay | $8.7K–$47.0K ($20.2K) |
| open | 1930 · 50k mi | ebay | $6.5K–$35.4K ($15.2K) |
No-lookahead: predictions are made before each auction closes; the scorecard grades confirmed sold auctions only (no-sales excluded). A modeled estimate, not a guarantee. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Where We Think It's Headed
Probability and range, not a single number. Wider = less certain (not bigger gains).
| Horizon | Direction | Probability | Confidence | Past accuracy |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 mo | DOWN | 52% | Low | 64% |
| 12 mo | UP | 49% | Low | 60% |
| 24 mo | UP | 49% | Low | 57% |
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Lead Indicator Forecast
Some indicators move before this market does. High-Yield Bond Spread has historically led it by about 8 months — so its recent move implies where prices head next (dashed). The solid green line is actual value through today; the shaded path is what the lead implies.
Crystal Ball — What Leading Indicators Signal
Distinct from the trend forecast above: this blends all 6 leading indicators (each at its own lead time, de-duplicated so correlated ones don't double-count) into one signal. Leading indicators are collectively signaling lower over the next ~12 months (high conviction — 68% of weighted drivers agree), driven mainly by VIX Volatility Index and Consumer Discretionary ETF (XLY), though 10-Year Treasury Yield points the other way.
Are the indicators agreeing?
Each bar is one driver's current push; longer = more weight. All one side = high conviction; split = low.
If You’d Bought in 2004
$100K invested 2004-01 → today (22.7 yrs), this car vs where else you could've put the money. Rebased to 100 at the start; the dashed line is inflation (break-even).
What This Market Follows
Specialty-car prices don't move in a vacuum. These economic indicators have historically led this market — tap one to see it shifted forward by its lead time, overlaid on the value line.
High-Yield Bond Spread leads by about 8 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.65). Shown shifted forward 8 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Why We Think This
Current Inventory Snapshot
Comparable Markets
| Market | Undervaluation | Appreciation | Liquidity |
|---|---|---|---|
| Alfa Romeo 105 Sedan | 84 | 22 | 32 |
| Mercedes-Benz 190SL | 51 | 40 | 56 |
| BMW 2002 tii | 60 | 33 | 13 |
| Datsun 240Z | 49 | 56 | 44 |
| Datsun 280Z | 48 | 45 | 59 |
| Ferrari 308 | 38 | 55 | 45 |
| Ferrari 308 GT4 | 54 | 47 | 15 |
| Ferrari 328 | 44 | 53 | 51 |
Recent Signals & Alerts
- inventory shortage Inventory dropped (robust z=-3.4)
- inventory shortage Inventory dropped (robust z=-3.4)
- inventory shortage Inventory dropped (robust z=-3.5)
- price jump Median asking moved sharply (z=-4.5)
- inventory shortage Inventory dropped (robust z=-3.9)
- inventory shortage Inventory dropped (robust z=-4.0)
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.