Ford Model A
Flagged undervalued because inventory +0%.
What It's Actually Worth
Blended value of a standard 80 yr, 8k mi example, ~$20.5K now. The green line weighs confirmed auction sales most heavily (the amber dots — what cars actually hammered for), blends in fast-selling "just-missed" listings, and lightly smooths out month-to-month composition noise.
Did our model work? 56% direction calls right
Each faint amber line is a forecast we would have made at that point in the past (12-mo horizon), drawn against what actually happened (blue). Over 165 scored forecasts: 56% got the direction right, median value error ±24%.
Walk-forward: each ghost uses only data available at that date — no hindsight. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Auction Scorecard gavel in range 9 in 10
We replayed 417 past auctions in this market — predicting each hammer price from market data before the sale (no hindsight). Typical miss: ±30%; the gavel landed inside our predicted range 9 in 10 of the time, and we lean slightly high on average.
| Sold | Car | Our range | Hammer | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-26 | 1930 | $9.2K–$48.5K | $8.8K | ✗ |
| 2026-06-26 | 1930 · 7k mi | $11.0K–$40.5K | $8.3K | ✗ |
| 2026-06-13 | 1931 · 0k mi | $12.4K–$45.6K | $24.6K | ✓ |
| 2026-06-13 | 1930 · 8k mi | $10.9K–$40.0K | $19.0K | ✓ |
| 2026-06-10 | 1929 · 90k mi | $9.0K–$32.9K | $15.0K | ✓ |
| 2026-06-09 | 1928 · 11k mi | $10.7K–$39.0K | $15.5K | ✓ |
| 2026-06-08 | 1931 · 80k mi | $9.2K–$33.9K | $9.0K | ✗ |
| 2026-06-05 | 1930 · 0k mi | $12.4K–$45.6K | $23.1K | ✓ |
Live now — calling it before the gavel
We're currently tracking 8 open auctions in this market. Here's our predicted hammer range for each — check back after they close.
| Closes | Car | Source | Our predicted range |
|---|---|---|---|
| open | 1929 · 0k mi | ah | $10.1K–$54.3K ($23.4K) |
| open | 1929 · 1k mi | ebay | $9.9K–$53.1K ($22.9K) |
| open | 1931 · 1k mi | ebay | $9.8K–$52.6K ($22.7K) |
| open | 1929 · 0k mi | ebay | $10.2K–$55.1K ($23.7K) |
| open | 1929 · 1k mi | ebay | $10.1K–$54.5K ($23.5K) |
| open | 1929 · 1k mi | ebay | $9.9K–$53.2K ($23.0K) |
| open | 1931 · 1k mi | ebay | $9.8K–$52.8K ($22.8K) |
| open | 1931 · 4k mi | classic | $9.4K–$50.8K ($21.9K) |
No-lookahead: predictions are made before each auction closes; the scorecard grades confirmed sold auctions only (no-sales excluded). A modeled estimate, not a guarantee. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Where We Think It's Headed
Probability and range, not a single number. Wider = less certain (not bigger gains).
| Horizon | Direction | Probability | Confidence | Past accuracy |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 mo | DOWN | 52% | Low | 68% |
| 12 mo | DOWN | 51% | Low | 56% |
| 24 mo | DOWN | 51% | Low | 56% |
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Lead Indicator Forecast
Some indicators move before this market does. High-Yield Bond Spread has historically led it by about 1 months — so its recent move implies where prices head next (dashed). The solid green line is actual value through today; the shaded path is what the lead implies.
Crystal Ball — What Leading Indicators Signal
Distinct from the trend forecast above: this blends all 8 leading indicators (each at its own lead time, de-duplicated so correlated ones don't double-count) into one signal. Leading indicators are collectively signaling higher over the next ~12 months (moderate conviction — 56% of weighted drivers agree), driven mainly by VIX Volatility Index and High-Yield Bond Spread, though Gold (futures) points the other way.
Are the indicators agreeing?
Each bar is one driver's current push; longer = more weight. All one side = high conviction; split = low.
If You’d Bought in 2004
$100K invested 2004-01 → today (22.5 yrs), this car vs where else you could've put the money. Rebased to 100 at the start; the dashed line is inflation (break-even).
What This Market Follows
Specialty-car prices don't move in a vacuum. These economic indicators have historically led this market — tap one to see it shifted forward by its lead time, overlaid on the value line.
High-Yield Bond Spread leads by about 1 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.49). Shown shifted forward 1 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Why We Think This
Current Inventory Snapshot
Comparable Markets
| Market | Undervaluation | Appreciation | Liquidity |
|---|---|---|---|
| Alfa Romeo 105 Sedan | 93 | 93 | 17 |
| Mercedes-Benz 190SL | 38 | 43 | 39 |
| BMW 2002 tii | 46 | 74 | 20 |
| Datsun 240Z | 41 | 56 | 38 |
| Datsun 280Z | 32 | 66 | 60 |
| Ferrari 308 | 38 | 64 | 34 |
| Ferrari 308 GT4 | 51 | 54 | 26 |
| Ferrari 328 | 58 | 46 | 42 |
Recent Signals & Alerts
- price jump Median asking moved sharply (z=13.3)
- price jump Median asking moved sharply (z=26.7)
- price jump Median asking moved sharply (z=27.0)
- price jump Median asking moved sharply (z=-26.0)
- price jump Median asking moved sharply (z=32.9)
- price jump Median asking moved sharply (z=-19.6)
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.