Showing appreciation momentum: +285% vs 12-mo avg, and asking trend +0.1%/mo.
What It's Actually Worth
Blended value of a standard 57 yr, 49k mi example, ~$15.7K now. The green line weighs confirmed auction sales most heavily (the amber dots — what cars actually hammered for), blends in fast-selling "just-missed" listings, and lightly smooths out month-to-month composition noise.
Each faint amber line is a forecast we would have made at that point in the past (12-mo horizon), drawn against what actually happened (blue). Over 17 scored forecasts: 76% got the direction right, median value error ±287%.
━ actual╱ past predictions (ghosts)
Walk-forward: each ghost uses only data available at that date — no hindsight. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Where We Think It's Headed
Probability and range, not a single number. Wider = less certain (not bigger gains).
Horizon
Direction
Probability
Confidence
Past accuracy
6 mo
DOWN
56%
Low
65%
12 mo
DOWN
57%
Low
76%
24 mo
DOWN
60%
Low
60%
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Lead Indicator Forecast
Some indicators move before this market does. Housing Starts has historically led it by about 14 months — so its recent move implies where prices head next (dashed). The solid green line is actual value through today; the shaded path is what the lead implies.
BECAUSE Housing Starts fell 8%. THEREFORE, given its usual 14-month head start, we lean UP — about +3% (≈ +$422) over the next 14 months. Confidence: Moderate (correlation -0.75, 19 months overlap).
If You’d Bought in 2006
$100K invested 2006-01 → today (20.8 yrs), this car vs where else you could've put the money. Rebased to 100 at the start; the dashed line is inflation (break-even).
━ This car $18.3K━ S&P 500 $867K━ Gold $738K━ Luxury $1143K━ Housing $187K
Lost ground to inflation. The Mercedes-Benz Ponton roughly 0.2×'d your money (a real 89% LOSS to inflation). It LAGGED the stock market by about 98% — the same money in the S&P 500 would be larger. It trailed housing (-90%). (Price only — a real round-trip also loses ~10–20% to buy/sell fees and carrying costs.)
Specialty-car prices don't move in a vacuum. These economic indicators have historically led this market — tap one to see it shifted forward by its lead time, overlaid on the value line.
Housing Starts leads by about 14 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.75). Shown shifted forward 14 months so its turns line up with the market's.
LVMH (luxury proxy ADR) leads by about 0 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.63). Shown shifted forward 0 months so its turns line up with the market's.
10-Year Treasury Yield leads by about 19 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.63). Shown shifted forward 19 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Gold (futures) leads by about 7 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.62). Shown shifted forward 7 months so its turns line up with the market's.
WTI Crude Oil leads by about 19 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.59). Shown shifted forward 19 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Russell 2000 (small cap) leads by about 8 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.59). Shown shifted forward 8 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Mercedes-Benz Ponton┄ Russell 2000 (small cap), shifted +8mo
Nonfarm Payrolls (jobs) leads by about 5 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.58). Shown shifted forward 5 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.