Tracking 0 sales in the last 90 days. We'll publish a confident 12-month outlook once 5 more sales close — at this market's typical pace, that's roughly 15 months.
What It's Actually Worth
Blended value of a standard 57 yr, 50k mi example, ~$21.8K now. The green line weighs confirmed auction sales most heavily (the amber dots — what cars actually hammered for), blends in fast-selling "just-missed" listings, and lightly smooths out month-to-month composition noise.
Each faint amber line is a forecast we would have made at that point in the past (12-mo horizon), drawn against what actually happened (blue). Over 16 scored forecasts: 81% got the direction right, median value error ±124%.
━ actual╱ past predictions (ghosts)
Walk-forward: each ghost uses only data available at that date — no hindsight. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
If You’d Bought in 2006
$100K invested 2006-01 → today (20.5 yrs), this car vs where else you could've put the money. Rebased to 100 at the start; the dashed line is inflation (break-even).
━ This car $25.4K━ S&P 500 $843K━ Gold $719K━ Luxury $1456K━ Housing $182K
Lost ground to inflation. The Mercedes-Benz Ponton roughly 0.3×'d your money (a real 85% LOSS to inflation). It LAGGED the stock market by about 97% — the same money in the S&P 500 would be larger. It trailed housing (-86%). (Price only — a real round-trip also loses ~10–20% to buy/sell fees and carrying costs.)
Specialty-car prices don't move in a vacuum. These economic indicators have historically led this market — tap one to see it shifted forward by its lead time, overlaid on the value line.
LVMH (luxury proxy ADR) leads by about 0 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.60). Shown shifted forward 0 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Dow Jones Industrial leads by about 6 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.59). Shown shifted forward 6 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Mercedes-Benz Ponton┄ Dow Jones Industrial, shifted +6mo
Advance Retail Sales leads by about 23 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.57). Shown shifted forward 23 months so its turns line up with the market's.
S&P 500 leads by about 1 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.57). Shown shifted forward 1 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Mercedes-Benz Ponton┄ S&P 500, shifted +1mo
Consumer Discretionary ETF (XLY) leads by about 7 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.57). Shown shifted forward 7 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Nasdaq Composite leads by about 0 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.56). Shown shifted forward 0 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Russell 2000 (small cap) leads by about 8 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.56). Shown shifted forward 8 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Mercedes-Benz Ponton┄ Russell 2000 (small cap), shifted +8mo
M2 Money Supply leads by about 17 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.56). Shown shifted forward 17 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
