Mercedes-Benz W111 Coupe
Showing appreciation momentum: +802% vs 12-mo avg.
What It's Actually Worth
Blended value of a standard 59 yr, 20k mi example, ~$10.3K now. The green line weighs confirmed auction sales most heavily (the amber dots — what cars actually hammered for), blends in fast-selling "just-missed" listings, and lightly smooths out month-to-month composition noise.
Did our model work? 52% direction calls right
Each faint amber line is a forecast we would have made at that point in the past (12-mo horizon), drawn against what actually happened (blue). Over 21 scored forecasts: 52% got the direction right, median value error ±98%.
Walk-forward: each ghost uses only data available at that date — no hindsight. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Auction Scorecard gavel in range 3 in 10
We replayed 36 past auctions in this market — predicting each hammer price from market data before the sale (no hindsight). Typical miss: ±79%; the gavel landed inside our predicted range 3 in 10 of the time, and we lean slightly high on average.
| Sold | Car | Our range | Hammer | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-16 | 1965 · 2k mi | $14.1K–$51.5K | $15.0K | ✓ |
| 2024-11-25 | 1971 · 49k mi | $2.0K–$7.2K | $5.7K | ✓ |
| 2024-11-23 | 1971 · 55k mi | $2.3K–$8.4K | $14.0K | ✗ |
| 2024-07-26 | 1963 · 4k mi | $11.7K–$42.7K | $57.0K | ✗ |
| 2024-05-17 | 1966 · 38k mi | $6.5K–$23.9K | $2.7K | ✗ |
| 2024-05-01 | 1964 · 21k mi | $10.3K–$37.5K | $101K | ✗ |
| 2023-08-21 | 1961 · 20k mi | $8.4K–$30.7K | $25.8K | ✓ |
| 2023-05-31 | 1964 · 108k mi | $9.7K–$35.5K | $52.0K | ✗ |
No-lookahead: predictions are made before each auction closes; the scorecard grades confirmed sold auctions only (no-sales excluded). A modeled estimate, not a guarantee. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Where We Think It's Headed
Probability and range, not a single number. Wider = less certain (not bigger gains).
| Horizon | Direction | Probability | Confidence | Past accuracy |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 mo | DOWN | 53% | Low | 70% |
| 12 mo | DOWN | 53% | Low | 52% |
| 24 mo | DOWN | 54% | Low | 56% |
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Lead Indicator Forecast
Some indicators move before this market does. Real Disposable Income per Capita has historically led it by about 22 months — so its recent move implies where prices head next (dashed). The solid green line is actual value through today; the shaded path is what the lead implies.
Crystal Ball — What Leading Indicators Signal
Distinct from the trend forecast above: this blends all 8 leading indicators (each at its own lead time, de-duplicated so correlated ones don't double-count) into one signal. Leading indicators are collectively signaling higher over the next ~12 months (high conviction — 75% of weighted drivers agree), driven mainly by WTI Crude Oil and Initial Jobless Claims, though Consumer Discretionary ETF (XLY) points the other way.
Are the indicators agreeing?
Each bar is one driver's current push; longer = more weight. All one side = high conviction; split = low.
If You’d Bought in 2013
$100K invested 2013-01 → today (13.6 yrs), this car vs where else you could've put the money. Rebased to 100 at the start; the dashed line is inflation (break-even).
What This Market Follows
Specialty-car prices don't move in a vacuum. These economic indicators have historically led this market — tap one to see it shifted forward by its lead time, overlaid on the value line.
Real Disposable Income per Capita leads by about 22 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.68). Shown shifted forward 22 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Why We Think This
Current Inventory Snapshot
Comparable Markets
| Market | Undervaluation | Appreciation | Liquidity |
|---|---|---|---|
| Alfa Romeo 105 Sedan | 66 | 43 | 36 |
| Mercedes-Benz 190SL | 41 | 45 | 54 |
| BMW 2002 tii | 47 | 56 | 20 |
| Datsun 240Z | 50 | 48 | 28 |
| Datsun 280Z | 38 | 64 | 52 |
| Ferrari 308 | 36 | 50 | 52 |
| Ferrari 308 GT4 | 54 | 47 | 16 |
| Ferrari 328 | 55 | 40 | 53 |
Recent Signals & Alerts
- price jump Median asking moved sharply (z=26.3)
- price jump Median asking moved sharply (z=-19.3)
- price jump Median asking moved sharply (z=-14.4)
- price jump Median asking moved sharply (z=-12.5)
- price jump Median asking moved sharply (z=16.2)
- price jump Median asking moved sharply (z=-7.2)
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.