Tracking 1 sale in the last 90 days. We'll publish a confident 12-month outlook once 4 more sales close — at this market's typical pace, that's roughly 8 months.
What It's Actually Worth
Blended value of a standard 60 yr, 21k mi example, ~$13.3K now. The green line weighs confirmed auction sales most heavily (the amber dots — what cars actually hammered for), blends in fast-selling "just-missed" listings, and lightly smooths out month-to-month composition noise.
Each faint amber line is a forecast we would have made at that point in the past (12-mo horizon), drawn against what actually happened (blue). Over 20 scored forecasts: 55% got the direction right, median value error ±98%.
━ actual╱ past predictions (ghosts)
Walk-forward: each ghost uses only data available at that date — no hindsight. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Auction Scorecard gavel in range 3 in 10
We replayed 36 past auctions in this market — predicting each hammer price from market data before the sale (no hindsight). Typical miss: ±79%; the gavel landed inside our predicted range 3 in 10 of the time, and we lean slightly high on average.
Sold
Car
Our range
Hammer
2026-05-16
1965 · 2k mi
$10.2K–$37.4K
$15.0K
✓
2024-11-25
1971 · 49k mi
$2.0K–$7.3K
$5.7K
✓
2024-11-23
1971 · 55k mi
$2.3K–$8.6K
$14.0K
✗
2024-07-26
1963 · 4k mi
$12.2K–$44.5K
$57.0K
✗
2024-05-17
1966 · 38k mi
$6.6K–$24.1K
$2.7K
✗
2024-05-01
1964 · 21k mi
$10.2K–$37.2K
$101K
✗
2023-08-21
1961 · 20k mi
$8.3K–$30.6K
$25.8K
✓
2023-05-31
1964 · 108k mi
$9.5K–$35.0K
$52.0K
✗
No-lookahead: predictions are made before each auction closes; the scorecard grades confirmed sold auctions only (no-sales excluded). A modeled estimate, not a guarantee. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Lead Indicator Forecast
Some indicators move before this market does. Real Disposable Income per Capita has historically led it by about 22 months — so its recent move implies where prices head next (dashed). The solid green line is actual value through today; the shaded path is what the lead implies.
BECAUSE Real Disposable Income per Capita rose 1%. THEREFORE, given its usual 22-month head start, we lean DOWN — about −2% (≈ −$321) over the next 22 months. Confidence: Moderate (correlation +0.68, 22 months overlap).
Crystal Ball — What Leading Indicators Signal
Distinct from the trend forecast above: this blends all 8 leading indicators (each at its own lead time, de-duplicated so correlated ones don't double-count) into one signal. Leading indicators are collectively signaling higher over the next ~12 months (high conviction — 77% of weighted drivers agree), driven mainly by Initial Jobless Claims and WTI Crude Oil, though Ethereum (USD) points the other way.
Trend and leading indicators agree — both point up. Higher-conviction read.
Are the indicators agreeing?
Each bar is one driver's current push; longer = more weight. All one side = high conviction; split = low.
If You’d Bought in 2013
$100K invested 2013-01 → today (13.5 yrs), this car vs where else you could've put the money. Rebased to 100 at the start; the dashed line is inflation (break-even).
━ This car $22.4K━ S&P 500 $632K━ Gold $247K━ Luxury $544K━ Housing $229K
Lost ground to inflation. The Mercedes-Benz W111 Coupe roughly 0.2×'d your money (a real 84% LOSS to inflation). It LAGGED the stock market by about 96% — the same money in the S&P 500 would be larger. It trailed housing (-90%). (Price only — a real round-trip also loses ~10–20% to buy/sell fees and carrying costs.)
Specialty-car prices don't move in a vacuum. These economic indicators have historically led this market — tap one to see it shifted forward by its lead time, overlaid on the value line.
Real Disposable Income per Capita leads by about 22 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.68). Shown shifted forward 22 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Mercedes-Benz W111 Coupe┄ Real Disposable Income per Capita, shifted +22mo
Nonfarm Payrolls (jobs) leads by about 4 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.66). Shown shifted forward 4 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Russell 2000 (small cap) leads by about 14 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.66). Shown shifted forward 14 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Mercedes-Benz W111 Coupe┄ Russell 2000 (small cap), shifted +14mo
Core CPI (ex food/energy) leads by about 3 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.66). Shown shifted forward 3 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Mercedes-Benz W111 Coupe┄ Core CPI (ex food/energy), shifted +3mo
30-Year Mortgage Rate leads by about 18 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.65). Shown shifted forward 18 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Personal Savings Rate leads by about 22 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.65). Shown shifted forward 22 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Mercedes-Benz W111 Coupe┄ Personal Savings Rate, shifted +22mo
M2 Money Supply leads by about 22 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.64). Shown shifted forward 22 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Advance Retail Sales leads by about 11 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.64). Shown shifted forward 11 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
