Porsche 911S (LWB)
Flagged undervalued because -17% vs 2-yr avg, -10% vs 3-yr trend, inventory -0%, and sell-through 87%.
What It's Actually Worth
Blended value of a standard 53 yr, 44k mi example, ~$72.6K now. The green line weighs confirmed auction sales most heavily (the amber dots — what cars actually hammered for), blends in fast-selling "just-missed" listings, and lightly smooths out month-to-month composition noise.
Did our model work? 69% direction calls right
Each faint amber line is a forecast we would have made at that point in the past (12-mo horizon), drawn against what actually happened (blue). Over 95 scored forecasts: 69% got the direction right, median value error ±256%.
Walk-forward: each ghost uses only data available at that date — no hindsight. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Auction Scorecard gavel in range 7 in 10
We replayed 269 past auctions in this market — predicting each hammer price from market data before the sale (no hindsight). Typical miss: ±45%; the gavel landed inside our predicted range 7 in 10 of the time, and we lean slightly high on average.
| Sold | Car | Our range | Hammer | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-30 | 1973 · 18k mi | $47.4K–$174K | $91.0K | ✓ |
| 2026-09-21 | 1971 · 95k mi | $36.5K–$134K | $37.9K | ✓ |
| 2026-09-16 | 1973 · 32k mi | $42.1K–$155K | $79.7K | ✓ |
| 2026-09-15 | 1970 · 41k mi | $38.9K–$143K | $29.8K | ✗ |
| 2026-09-09 | 1970 · 38k mi | $39.6K–$146K | $173K | ✗ |
| 2026-09-08 | 1970 · 13k mi | $40.9K–$151K | $80.0K | ✓ |
| 2026-09-05 | 1969 · 24k mi | $47.1K–$173K | $98.6K | ✓ |
| 2026-09-04 | 1971 · 74k mi | $38.5K–$142K | $101K | ✓ |
Live now — calling it before the gavel
We're currently tracking 8 open auctions in this market. Here's our predicted hammer range for each — check back after they close.
| Closes | Car | Source | Our predicted range |
|---|---|---|---|
| open | 1970 · 1k mi | ebay | $48.1K–$263K ($112K) |
| open | 1969 · 1k mi | ebay | $49.2K–$267K ($115K) |
| open | 1969 · 1k mi | ebay | $47.9K–$260K ($112K) |
| open | 1969 · 1k mi | ebay | $47.9K–$260K ($112K) |
| open | 1970 · 1k mi | ebay | $45.7K–$248K ($106K) |
| open | 1969 · 1k mi | ebay | $45.8K–$248K ($107K) |
| open | 1970 · 1k mi | ebay | $46.1K–$249K ($107K) |
| open | 1969 · 1k mi | ebay | $46.5K–$252K ($108K) |
No-lookahead: predictions are made before each auction closes; the scorecard grades confirmed sold auctions only (no-sales excluded). A modeled estimate, not a guarantee. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Where We Think It's Headed
Probability and range, not a single number. Wider = less certain (not bigger gains).
| Horizon | Direction | Probability | Confidence | Past accuracy |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 mo | UP | 52% | Low | 62% |
| 12 mo | UP | 54% | Low | 69% |
| 24 mo | UP | 55% | Low | 78% |
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Crystal Ball — What Leading Indicators Signal
Distinct from the trend forecast above: this blends all 8 leading indicators (each at its own lead time, de-duplicated so correlated ones don't double-count) into one signal. Leading indicators are collectively signaling higher over the next ~12 months (moderate conviction — 46% of weighted drivers agree), driven mainly by High-Yield Bond Spread and U. Michigan Consumer Sentiment, though High-Yield Bond Spread points the other way.
Are the indicators agreeing?
Each bar is one driver's current push; longer = more weight. All one side = high conviction; split = low.
If You’d Bought in 2007
$100K invested 2007-08 → today (19.2 yrs), this car vs where else you could've put the money. Rebased to 100 at the start; the dashed line is inflation (break-even).
What This Market Follows
Specialty-car prices don't move in a vacuum. These economic indicators have historically led this market — tap one to see it shifted forward by its lead time, overlaid on the value line.
Advance Retail Sales leads by about 5 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.87). Shown shifted forward 5 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Why We Think This
Current Inventory Snapshot
Comparable Markets
| Market | Undervaluation | Appreciation | Liquidity |
|---|---|---|---|
| Alfa Romeo 105 Sedan | 85 | 21 | 40 |
| Mercedes-Benz 190SL | 51 | 40 | 56 |
| BMW 2002 tii | 50 | 36 | 15 |
| Datsun 240Z | 52 | 54 | 38 |
| Datsun 280Z | 50 | 41 | 54 |
| Ferrari 308 | 39 | 57 | 43 |
| Ferrari 308 GT4 | 53 | 47 | 14 |
| Ferrari 328 | 45 | 53 | 48 |
Recent Signals & Alerts
- vin returned lower VIN relisted $-14,000 vs prior
- vin returned lower VIN relisted $-14,000 vs prior
- price jump Median asking moved sharply (z=5.1)
- vin returned lower VIN relisted $-14,000 vs prior
- vin returned lower VIN relisted $-14,000 vs prior
- price jump Median asking moved sharply (z=-4.5)
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.