Tracking 9 sales in the last 90 days — the modeled signal will appear here on the next nightly rebuild.
What It's Actually Worth
Blended value of a standard 34 yr, 46k mi example, ~$6.3K now. The green line weighs confirmed auction sales most heavily (the amber dots — what cars actually hammered for), blends in fast-selling "just-missed" listings, and lightly smooths out month-to-month composition noise.
Building historyNot enough data to chart yet — check back as sales accrue.
Each faint amber line is a forecast we would have made at that point in the past (12-mo horizon), drawn against what actually happened (blue). Over 17 scored forecasts: 59% got the direction right, median value error ±340%.
Track record buildingNot enough graded forecasts yet to show accuracy.
━ actual╱ past predictions (ghosts)
Walk-forward: each ghost uses only data available at that date — no hindsight. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Auction Scorecard gavel in range 7 in 10
We replayed 31 past auctions in this market — predicting each hammer price from market data before the sale (no hindsight). Typical miss: ±30%; the gavel landed inside our predicted range 7 in 10 of the time, and we lean slightly low on average.
Sold
Car
Our range
Hammer
2026-09-21
1986 · 32k mi
$4.0K–$10.6K
$17.3K
✗
2026-08-31
1990 · 91k mi
$2.6K–$6.9K
$4.8K
✓
2026-08-18
1989 · 60k mi
$3.0K–$8.0K
$9.0K
✗
2026-07-25
1991 · 6k mi
$5.7K–$15.2K
$33.0K
✗
2026-05-12
1990 · 51k mi
$4.0K–$10.7K
$11.0K
✗
2026-04-30
1984 · 45k mi
$4.7K–$12.6K
$4.8K
✓
2026-04-04
1991 · 74k mi
$3.8K–$10.1K
$10.5K
✗
2026-03-23
1986 · 40k mi
$5.5K–$14.7K
$6.0K
✓
Live now — calling it before the gavel
We're currently tracking 8 open auctions in this market. Here's our predicted hammer range for each — check back after they close.
Closes
Car
Source
Our predicted range
open
1987 · 70k mi
ebay
$2.6K–$9.6K ($5.0K)
open
1987 · 70k mi
ebay
$2.6K–$9.6K ($5.0K)
open
1987 · 70k mi
ebay
$2.7K–$9.8K ($5.2K)
open
1987 · 70k mi
ebay
$2.7K–$9.8K ($5.2K)
open
1987 · 70k mi
ebay
$2.7K–$9.8K ($5.1K)
open
1987 · 70k mi
ebay
$2.5K–$9.2K ($4.8K)
open
1987 · 70k mi
ebay
$2.5K–$9.1K ($4.8K)
open
1987 · 70k mi
ebay
$2.4K–$8.6K ($4.6K)
No-lookahead: predictions are made before each auction closes; the scorecard grades confirmed sold auctions only (no-sales excluded). A modeled estimate, not a guarantee. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Lead Indicator Forecast
Some indicators move before this market does. Silver has historically led it by about 4 months — so its recent move implies where prices head next (dashed). The solid green line is actual value through today; the shaded path is what the lead implies.
BECAUSE Silver fell 19%. THEREFORE, given its usual 4-month head start, we lean UP — about +4% (≈ +$278) over the next 4 months. Confidence: Moderate (correlation -0.84, 19 months overlap).
If You’d Bought in 2012
$100K invested 2012-07 → today (14.2 yrs), this car vs where else you could've put the money. Rebased to 100 at the start; the dashed line is inflation (break-even).
━ This car $146K━ S&P 500 $700K━ Gold $271K━ Luxury $604K━ Housing $233K
Roughly tracked inflation — flat in real terms. The Lincoln Mark VII roughly 1.5×'d your money (a real 0% LOSS to inflation). It LAGGED the stock market by about 79% — the same money in the S&P 500 would be larger. It trailed housing (-37%). (Price only — a real round-trip also loses ~10–20% to buy/sell fees and carrying costs.)
Specialty-car prices don't move in a vacuum. These economic indicators have historically led this market — tap one to see it shifted forward by its lead time, overlaid on the value line.
Silver leads by about 4 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.84). Shown shifted forward 4 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Lincoln Mark VII┄ Silver, shifted +4mo
LVMH (luxury proxy ADR) leads by about 13 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.84). Shown shifted forward 13 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Lincoln Mark VII┄ LVMH (luxury proxy ADR), shifted +13mo
Housing Starts leads by about 8 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.83). Shown shifted forward 8 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Lincoln Mark VII┄ Housing Starts, shifted +8mo
Gold (futures) leads by about 20 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.82). Shown shifted forward 20 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Lincoln Mark VII┄ Gold (futures), shifted +20mo
Gold (futures) leads by about 4 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.82). Shown shifted forward 4 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Lincoln Mark VII┄ Gold (futures), shifted +4mo
WTI Crude Oil leads by about 16 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.82). Shown shifted forward 16 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Lincoln Mark VII┄ WTI Crude Oil, shifted +16mo
10Y-2Y Yield Spread leads by about 17 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.81). Shown shifted forward 17 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Lincoln Mark VII┄ 10Y-2Y Yield Spread, shifted +17mo
Trade-Weighted Dollar Index leads by about 9 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.80). Shown shifted forward 9 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Lincoln Mark VII┄ Trade-Weighted Dollar Index, shifted +9mo
Why We Think This
Appreciation Momentum
64
Undervaluation
60
Liquidity
51
Speculation Opportunity
62
Depreciation Risk
58
Overvaluation
88
inventory -0%inventory trend slope
sell-through 88%sell through rate
asking trend +0.1%/momedian asking trend slope
new-listing velocity 24% of activenew listing velocity
price jump Median asking moved sharply (z=-1709.6)
vin returned higher VIN relisted +$3,000 vs prior
price jump Median asking moved sharply (z=-46.8)
vin returned higher VIN relisted +$6,000 vs prior
price jump Median asking moved sharply (z=96.3)
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
