Lincoln Continental (1961-1969)
Flagged undervalued because asking -45% vs historic sold, -27% vs 3-yr trend, and -22% vs 2-yr avg.
What It's Actually Worth
Blended value of a standard 60 yr, 53k mi example, ~$54.7K now. The green line weighs confirmed auction sales most heavily (the amber dots — what cars actually hammered for), blends in fast-selling "just-missed" listings, and lightly smooths out month-to-month composition noise.
Did our model work? 69% direction calls right
Each faint amber line is a forecast we would have made at that point in the past (12-mo horizon), drawn against what actually happened (blue). Over 39 scored forecasts: 69% got the direction right, median value error ±20%.
Walk-forward: each ghost uses only data available at that date — no hindsight. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Auction Scorecard gavel in range 7 in 10
We replayed 295 past auctions in this market — predicting each hammer price from market data before the sale (no hindsight). Typical miss: ±40%; the gavel landed inside our predicted range 7 in 10 of the time, and we lean slightly high on average.
| Sold | Car | Our range | Hammer | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-28 | 1966 · 26k mi | $32.0K–$114K | $82.0K | ✓ |
| 2026-05-17 | 1961 · 56k mi | $30.3K–$108K | $27.0K | ✗ |
| 2026-05-15 | 1967 · 86k mi | $27.4K–$98.0K | $82.5K | ✓ |
| 2026-05-14 | 1965 · 31k mi | $31.0K–$111K | $88.0K | ✓ |
| 2026-05-14 | 1966 · 96k mi | $26.7K–$95.2K | $62.7K | ✓ |
| 2026-05-14 | 1966 · 58k mi | $30.4K–$109K | $51.7K | ✓ |
| 2026-05-13 | 1966 · 46k mi | $29.9K–$107K | $11.0K | ✗ |
| 2026-05-05 | 1966 · 64k mi | $30.6K–$109K | $28.8K | ✗ |
Live now — calling it before the gavel
We're currently tracking 8 open auctions in this market. Here's our predicted hammer range for each — check back after they close.
| Closes | Car | Source | Our predicted range |
|---|---|---|---|
| open | 1965 · 25k mi | classic | $23.8K–$126K ($54.8K) |
| open | 1962 | BaT | $23.8K–$126K ($54.7K) |
| open | 1966 · 10k mi | classic | $23.3K–$123K ($53.5K) |
| open | 1963 · 61k mi | ebay | $23.5K–$124K ($54.0K) |
| open | 1969 · 89k mi | ebay | $20.8K–$110K ($47.7K) |
| open | 1964 | BaT | $23.2K–$123K ($53.5K) |
| open | 1963 · 61k mi | ebay | $23.5K–$124K ($54.0K) |
| open | 1963 · 61k mi | ebay | $23.5K–$124K ($54.0K) |
No-lookahead: predictions are made before each auction closes; the scorecard grades confirmed sold auctions only (no-sales excluded). A modeled estimate, not a guarantee. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Where We Think It's Headed
Probability and range, not a single number. Wider = less certain (not bigger gains).
| Horizon | Direction | Probability | Confidence | Past accuracy |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 mo | UP | 46% | Low | 73% |
| 12 mo | UP | 45% | Low | 69% |
| 24 mo | FLAT | 50% | Low | 63% |
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Crystal Ball — What Leading Indicators Signal
Distinct from the trend forecast above: this blends all 8 leading indicators (each at its own lead time, de-duplicated so correlated ones don't double-count) into one signal. Leading indicators are collectively signaling higher over the next ~12 months (moderate conviction — 53% of weighted drivers agree), driven mainly by Real Disposable Income per Capita and 10-Year Treasury Yield, though WTI Crude Oil points the other way.
Are the indicators agreeing?
Each bar is one driver's current push; longer = more weight. All one side = high conviction; split = low.
If You’d Bought in 2000
$100K invested 2000-01 → today (26.4 yrs), this car vs where else you could've put the money. Rebased to 100 at the start; the dashed line is inflation (break-even).
What This Market Follows
Specialty-car prices don't move in a vacuum. These economic indicators have historically led this market — tap one to see it shifted forward by its lead time, overlaid on the value line.
10-Year Treasury Yield leads by about 2 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.44). Shown shifted forward 2 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Why We Think This
Current Inventory Snapshot
Comparable Markets
| Market | Undervaluation | Appreciation | Liquidity |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mercedes-Benz 190SL | 35 | 44 | 46 |
| BMW 2002 tii | 53 | 41 | 35 |
| Datsun 240Z | 38 | 54 | 45 |
| Datsun 280Z | 32 | 56 | 56 |
| Ferrari 308 | 46 | 40 | 41 |
| Ferrari 308 GT4 | 41 | 61 | 23 |
| Ferrari 328 | 57 | 45 | 33 |
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.