Lincoln Continental (1961-1969)
Flagged undervalued because asking -31% vs historic sold, -9% vs 3-yr trend, -7% vs 2-yr avg, and sell-through 95%.
What It's Actually Worth
Blended value of a standard 60 yr, 52k mi example, ~$42.8K now. The green line weighs confirmed auction sales most heavily (the amber dots — what cars actually hammered for), blends in fast-selling "just-missed" listings, and lightly smooths out month-to-month composition noise.
Did our model work? 65% direction calls right
Each faint amber line is a forecast we would have made at that point in the past (12-mo horizon), drawn against what actually happened (blue). Over 159 scored forecasts: 65% got the direction right, median value error ±26%.
Walk-forward: each ghost uses only data available at that date — no hindsight. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Auction Scorecard gavel in range 7 in 10
We replayed 330 past auctions in this market — predicting each hammer price from market data before the sale (no hindsight). Typical miss: ±43%; the gavel landed inside our predicted range 7 in 10 of the time, and we lean slightly high on average.
| Sold | Car | Our range | Hammer | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-26 | 1964 · 63k mi | $27.9K–$103K | $110K | ✗ |
| 2026-09-24 | 1967 · 78k mi | $27.7K–$102K | $46.2K | ✓ |
| 2026-09-24 | 1965 · 44k mi | $25.4K–$93.5K | $26.3K | ✓ |
| 2026-09-22 | 1966 · 3k mi | $40.2K–$148K | $38.5K | ✗ |
| 2026-09-18 | 1965 · 60k mi | $27.6K–$102K | $111K | ✗ |
| 2026-09-12 | 1964 · 1k mi | $45.7K–$168K | $173K | ✗ |
| 2026-09-12 | 1965 · 72k mi | $27.9K–$103K | $46.0K | ✓ |
| 2026-09-09 | 1966 · 43k mi | $25.2K–$92.9K | $27.3K | ✓ |
Live now — calling it before the gavel
We're currently tracking 8 open auctions in this market. Here's our predicted hammer range for each — check back after they close.
| Closes | Car | Source | Our predicted range |
|---|---|---|---|
| open | 1961 · 8k mi | ebay | $20.3K–$111K ($47.5K) |
| open | 1966 · 12k mi | ebay | $19.1K–$104K ($44.7K) |
| open | 1963 · 61k mi | ebay | $21.0K–$115K ($49.1K) |
| open | 1966 · 12k mi | ebay | $18.8K–$103K ($43.9K) |
| open | 1963 · 61k mi | ebay | $21.3K–$116K ($49.7K) |
| open | 1966 · 12k mi | ebay | $19.1K–$104K ($44.6K) |
| open | 1966 · 0k mi | ebay | $37.6K–$205K ($87.9K) |
| open | 1961 · 8k mi | ebay | $22.6K–$123K ($52.7K) |
No-lookahead: predictions are made before each auction closes; the scorecard grades confirmed sold auctions only (no-sales excluded). A modeled estimate, not a guarantee. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Where We Think It's Headed
Probability and range, not a single number. Wider = less certain (not bigger gains).
| Horizon | Direction | Probability | Confidence | Past accuracy |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 mo | UP | 48% | Low | 65% |
| 12 mo | DOWN | 52% | Low | 65% |
| 24 mo | DOWN | 53% | Low | 63% |
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Crystal Ball — What Leading Indicators Signal
Distinct from the trend forecast above: this blends all 3 leading indicators (each at its own lead time, de-duplicated so correlated ones don't double-count) into one signal. Leading indicators are collectively signaling sideways over the next ~12 months (low conviction — 35% of weighted drivers agree), driven mainly by Ethereum (USD) and 2-Year Treasury Yield, though Initial Jobless Claims points the other way.
Are the indicators agreeing?
Each bar is one driver's current push; longer = more weight. All one side = high conviction; split = low.
If You’d Bought in 2000
$100K invested 2000-01 → today (26.8 yrs), this car vs where else you could've put the money. Rebased to 100 at the start; the dashed line is inflation (break-even).
What This Market Follows
Specialty-car prices don't move in a vacuum. These economic indicators have historically led this market — tap one to see it shifted forward by its lead time, overlaid on the value line.
Nonfarm Payrolls (jobs) leads by about 8 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.50). Shown shifted forward 8 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Why We Think This
Current Inventory Snapshot
Comparable Markets
| Market | Undervaluation | Appreciation | Liquidity |
|---|---|---|---|
| Alfa Romeo 105 Sedan | 86 | 21 | 27 |
| Mercedes-Benz 190SL | 52 | 42 | 53 |
| BMW 2002 tii | 49 | 36 | 12 |
| Datsun 240Z | 48 | 64 | 35 |
| Datsun 280Z | 61 | 28 | 51 |
| Ferrari 308 | 45 | 55 | 44 |
| Ferrari 308 GT4 | 55 | 48 | 11 |
| Ferrari 328 | 46 | 54 | 41 |
Recent Signals & Alerts
- vin returned higher VIN relisted +$10,550 vs prior
- vin returned higher VIN relisted +$10,550 vs prior
- price jump Median asking moved sharply (z=4.9)
- vin returned higher VIN relisted +$10,550 vs prior
- vin returned higher VIN relisted +$10,550 vs prior
- vin returned higher VIN relisted +$10,550 vs prior
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.