Blended value of a standard 64 yr, 4k mi example, ~$23.6K now. The green line weighs confirmed auction sales most heavily (the amber dots — what cars actually hammered for), blends in fast-selling "just-missed" listings, and lightly smooths out month-to-month composition noise.
Probability and range, not a single number. Wider = less certain (not bigger gains).
Horizon
Direction
Probability
Confidence
Past accuracy
6 mo
FLAT
50%
Low
33%
12 mo
DOWN
66%
Low
—
24 mo
DOWN
72%
Low
—
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Lead Indicator Forecast
Some indicators move before this market does. 30-Year Mortgage Rate has historically led it by about 24 months — so its recent move implies where prices head next (dashed). The solid green line is actual value through today; the shaded path is what the lead implies.
BECAUSE mortgage rates rose 8%. THEREFORE, given its usual 24-month head start, we lean DOWN — about −3% (≈ −$673) over the next 24 months. Confidence: Moderate (correlation +0.69, 20 months overlap).
If You’d Bought in 2021
$100K invested 2021-04 → today (5.5 yrs), this car vs where else you could've put the money. Rebased to 100 at the start; the dashed line is inflation (break-even).
━ This car $133K━ S&P 500 $202K━ Gold $238K━ Luxury $68.7K━ Housing $135K₿ Bitcoin $149K (off-scale)
Roughly tracked inflation — flat in real terms. The Jeep Fc roughly 1.3×'d your money (a real, inflation-adjusted 1.1× gain). It LAGGED the stock market by about 34% — the same money in the S&P 500 would be larger. It trailed housing (-2%). (Price only — a real round-trip also loses ~10–20% to buy/sell fees and carrying costs.)
Specialty-car prices don't move in a vacuum. These economic indicators have historically led this market — tap one to see it shifted forward by its lead time, overlaid on the value line.
30-Year Mortgage Rate leads by about 24 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.69). Shown shifted forward 24 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Jeep Fc┄ 30-Year Mortgage Rate, shifted +24mo
Personal Savings Rate leads by about 21 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.57). Shown shifted forward 21 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Jeep Fc┄ Personal Savings Rate, shifted +21mo
US Metro Mean Temperature leads by about 16 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.55). Shown shifted forward 16 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Jeep Fc┄ US Metro Mean Temperature, shifted +16mo
US Regular Gas Price leads by about 4 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.54). Shown shifted forward 4 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Jeep Fc┄ US Regular Gas Price, shifted +4mo
Effective Fed Funds Rate leads by about 13 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.53). Shown shifted forward 13 months so its turns line up with the market's.
CPI (All Urban Consumers) leads by about 21 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.53). Shown shifted forward 21 months so its turns line up with the market's.
WTI Crude Oil leads by about 3 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.52). Shown shifted forward 3 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Jeep Fc┄ WTI Crude Oil, shifted +3mo
Gold (futures) leads by about 5 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.51). Shown shifted forward 5 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Jeep Fc┄ Gold (futures), shifted +5mo
Why We Think This
Appreciation Momentum
31
Undervaluation
41
Liquidity
58
Speculation Opportunity
20
Depreciation Risk
75
inventory +1%inventory trend slope
sell-through 100%sell through rate
asking trend +0.6%/momedian asking trend slope
sale prices -4.2%/momedian sale trend slope
-42% vs 12-mo avgpct vs trailing 12mo
new-listing velocity 0% of activenew listing velocity
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.