Lexus IS
Flagged undervalued because -3% vs 2-yr avg, -3% vs 3-yr trend, and inventory -0%.
What It's Actually Worth
Blended value of a standard 16 yr, 91k mi example, ~$18.0K now. The green line weighs confirmed auction sales most heavily (the amber dots — what cars actually hammered for), blends in fast-selling "just-missed" listings, and lightly smooths out month-to-month composition noise.
Did our model work? 57% direction calls right
Each faint amber line is a forecast we would have made at that point in the past (12-mo horizon), drawn against what actually happened (blue). Over 37 scored forecasts: 57% got the direction right, median value error ±50%.
Walk-forward: each ghost uses only data available at that date — no hindsight. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Auction Scorecard gavel in range 6 in 10
We replayed 120 past auctions in this market — predicting each hammer price from market data before the sale (no hindsight). Typical miss: ±38%; the gavel landed inside our predicted range 6 in 10 of the time, and we lean slightly high on average.
| Sold | Car | Our range | Hammer | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-21 | 2023 · 13k mi | $19.1K–$50.8K | $61.5K | ✗ |
| 2026-09-15 | 2002 · 161k mi | $8.6K–$22.8K | $11.0K | ✓ |
| 2026-09-10 | 2012 · 136k mi | $9.0K–$24.0K | $27.8K | ✗ |
| 2026-09-05 | 2003 · 188k mi | $6.6K–$23.6K | $8.1K | ✓ |
| 2026-08-20 | 2025 · 4k mi | $21.4K–$56.9K | $71.5K | ✗ |
| 2026-08-19 | 2008 · 43k mi | $11.1K–$29.6K | $38.0K | ✗ |
| 2026-08-14 | 2001 · 105k mi | $10.0K–$26.6K | $10.5K | ✓ |
| 2026-08-07 | 2011 · 97k mi | $10.3K–$27.4K | $27.8K | ✗ |
Live now — calling it before the gavel
We're currently tracking 8 open auctions in this market. Here's our predicted hammer range for each — check back after they close.
| Closes | Car | Source | Our predicted range |
|---|---|---|---|
| open | 2025 · 20k mi | ebay | $11.8K–$42.6K ($22.4K) |
| open | 2025 | C&B | $9.5K–$34.2K ($18.0K) |
| open | 2024 · 9k mi | classic | $17.0K–$61.5K ($32.3K) |
| open | 2007 · 183k mi | classic | $6.4K–$23.2K ($12.2K) |
| open | 2008 · 53k mi | classic | $9.1K–$32.6K ($17.2K) |
| open | 2012 · 136k mi | classic | $6.5K–$23.2K ($12.2K) |
| open | 2012 · 195k mi | classic | $6.2K–$22.3K ($11.8K) |
| open | 2011 · 136k mi | classic | $6.5K–$23.2K ($12.2K) |
No-lookahead: predictions are made before each auction closes; the scorecard grades confirmed sold auctions only (no-sales excluded). A modeled estimate, not a guarantee. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Where We Think It's Headed
Probability and range, not a single number. Wider = less certain (not bigger gains).
| Horizon | Direction | Probability | Confidence | Past accuracy |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 mo | UP | 50% | Low | 63% |
| 12 mo | UP | 51% | Low | 57% |
| 24 mo | UP | 51% | Low | 40% |
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Lead Indicator Forecast
Some indicators move before this market does. High-Yield Bond Spread has historically led it by about 4 months — so its recent move implies where prices head next (dashed). The solid green line is actual value through today; the shaded path is what the lead implies.
If You’d Bought in 2018
$100K invested 2018-10 → today (7.9 yrs), this car vs where else you could've put the money. Rebased to 100 at the start; the dashed line is inflation (break-even).
What This Market Follows
Specialty-car prices don't move in a vacuum. These economic indicators have historically led this market — tap one to see it shifted forward by its lead time, overlaid on the value line.
High-Yield Bond Spread leads by about 4 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.71). Shown shifted forward 4 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Why We Think This
Current Inventory Snapshot
Comparable Markets
| Market | Undervaluation | Appreciation | Liquidity |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aston Martin DB4 | 61 | 48 | 63 |
| Aston Martin DB5 | 16 | 50 | — |
| Bentley Continental (S1, S2, S3) | 53 | 38 | 61 |
| Buick Riviera | 60 | 43 | 49 |
| Mercedes-Benz CL-Class | 49 | 50 | 35 |
| Mercedes-Benz CLK-Class | 56 | 39 | 40 |
Recent Signals & Alerts
- vin returned lower VIN relisted $-9,020 vs prior
- vin returned higher VIN relisted +$3,413 vs prior
- undisclosed title change VIN previously reported non-clean now listed clean/undisclosed
- vin returned lower VIN relisted $-12,420 vs prior
- vin returned higher VIN relisted +$2,886 vs prior
- undisclosed title change VIN previously reported non-clean now listed clean/undisclosed
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.