Chevrolet Impala (1961-1964)

IMPALA 1961 1964 CARSTOCKSPECIALTY
$46.3K ▼ $5.3K (−10.3%)12 mo
COOLINGPriced above trend · momentum cooling — but volatile.
Well supported · 253 sold + 834 active
Fair value$46.3K ($40.7K–$51.8K)
Typical ask$40.0K
Recent sold$58.3K
Current valueHigh
12-mo trendSlightly down · 4-in-10 up · 67% calls right
Buyer: Anchor offers to recent sold comps ($58k).
Seller: Price near recent sold comps ($58k); expect negotiation.
Watcher: Volatile — wait for a clearer trend.
💰 Pricing your car to sell
Quick sale$38.0Ksells fast
Fair$58.3Krecent comps
List$62.4Kroom to negotiate
Stretch$67.6Kexceptional
🎯 Buying guide
Strong deal below $40.7K · Fair $40.7K–$51.8K · careful above $60.0K

Flagged undervalued because asking -35% vs historic sold, and inventory -0%.

What It's Actually Worth

Blended value of a standard 62 yr, 37k mi example, ~$46.3K now. The green line weighs confirmed auction sales most heavily (the amber dots — what cars actually hammered for), blends in fast-selling "just-missed" listings, and lightly smooths out month-to-month composition noise.

2006-01 2026-08 $155K $2.3K
━ blended true value ● confirmed auction sales (dot size = volume)
◫ 1488 confirmed sales (1485 auction · 3 other)·248 months tracked·since 2006-01·2251 active listings

Did our model work? 67% direction calls right

Each faint amber line is a forecast we would have made at that point in the past (12-mo horizon), drawn against what actually happened (blue). Over 152 scored forecasts: 67% got the direction right, median value error ±28%.

2004-01 2026-08 $1014K $15.9K
━ actual ╱ past predictions (ghosts)

Walk-forward: each ghost uses only data available at that date — no hindsight. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.

Auction Scorecard gavel in range 8 in 10

We replayed 297 past auctions in this market — predicting each hammer price from market data before the sale (no hindsight). Typical miss: ±37%; the gavel landed inside our predicted range 8 in 10 of the time, and we lean slightly high on average.

SoldCarOur rangeHammer
2026-07-25 1962 · 53k mi $25.6K–$93.4K $78.1K
2026-07-25 1962 · 47k mi $25.2K–$92.0K $66.0K
2026-07-25 1964 · 48k mi $25.3K–$92.2K $23.0K
2026-07-24 1964 · 34k mi $24.7K–$90.2K $79.2K
2026-07-23 1961 · 34k mi $24.8K–$90.3K $103K
2026-07-21 1962 · 11k mi $23.1K–$84.1K $42.3K
2026-07-14 1963 · 20k mi $25.0K–$91.3K $26.0K
2026-07-14 1963 · 20k mi $20.2K–$108K $26.0K

Live now — calling it before the gavel

We're currently tracking 8 open auctions in this market. Here's our predicted hammer range for each — check back after they close.

ClosesCarSourceOur predicted range
open 1964 · 5k mi ebay $23.4K–$126K ($54.4K)
open 1962 · 27k mi ebay $20.4K–$110K ($47.4K)
open 1964 · 0k mi ebay $32.8K–$177K ($76.1K)
open 1961 · 51k mi ebay $20.7K–$112K ($48.1K)
open 1964 · 26k mi ebay $20.5K–$110K ($47.6K)
open 1963 ebay $20.0K–$107K ($46.3K)
open 1961 · 0k mi ebay $32.8K–$177K ($76.1K)
open 1963 · 43k mi ebay $20.2K–$109K ($47.0K)

No-lookahead: predictions are made before each auction closes; the scorecard grades confirmed sold auctions only (no-sales excluded). A modeled estimate, not a guarantee. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.

Where We Think It's Headed

Probability and range, not a single number. Wider = less certain (not bigger gains).

2006-01 now +24mo $155K $1.6K
HorizonDirectionProbabilityConfidencePast accuracy
6 mo DOWN 55% Low 63%
12 mo DOWN 56% Low 67%
24 mo DOWN 58% Low 79%

Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.

Crystal Ball — What Leading Indicators Signal

Distinct from the trend forecast above: this blends all 8 leading indicators (each at its own lead time, de-duplicated so correlated ones don't double-count) into one signal. Leading indicators are collectively signaling higher over the next ~12 months (low conviction — 23% of weighted drivers agree), driven mainly by Housing Starts and M2 Money Supply, though Housing Starts points the other way.

⚠ The price trend and leading indicators disagree — momentum may be running ahead of the fundamentals.
now +12mo (indicators) $70.1K $22.9K

Are the indicators agreeing?

Each bar is one driver's current push; longer = more weight. All one side = high conviction; split = low.

Housing Starts-0.9M2 Money Supply+1.7Silver+0.22-Year Treasury Yiel+1.1U. Michigan Consumer+0.5VIX Volatility Index-0.3Initial Jobless Clai+2.7Bitcoin (USD)-0.2 ← bearish bullish →

If You’d Bought in 2006

$100K invested 2006-01 → today (20.6 yrs), this car vs where else you could've put the money. Rebased to 100 at the start; the dashed line is inflation (break-even).

$84.2K$874K$783K$1432K$185K 2006 2026 2270 100
━ This car $84.2K━ S&P 500 $874K━ Gold $783K━ Luxury $1432K━ Housing $185K
Lost ground to inflation. The Chevrolet Impala (1961-1964) roughly 0.8×'d your money (a real 50% LOSS to inflation). It LAGGED the stock market by about 90% — the same money in the S&P 500 would be larger. It trailed housing (-55%). (Price only — a real round-trip also loses ~10–20% to buy/sell fees and carrying costs.)
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What This Market Follows

Specialty-car prices don't move in a vacuum. These economic indicators have historically led this market — tap one to see it shifted forward by its lead time, overlaid on the value line.

Advance Retail Sales leads by about 8 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.90). Shown shifted forward 8 months so its turns line up with the market's.

━ Chevrolet Impala (1961-1964) ┄ Advance Retail Sales, shifted +8mo
2006-01 2026-08

Why We Think This

Appreciation Momentum
61
Undervaluation
45
Liquidity
38
Speculation Opportunity
50
Depreciation Risk
54
Overvaluation
66
asking -35% vs historic sold asking vs historic spread
+61% vs 2-yr avg pct vs trailing 24mo
+50% vs 3-yr trend pct vs trailing 36mo
+61% vs 12-mo avg pct vs trailing 12mo
sell-through 71% sell through rate
inventory -0% inventory trend slope
114 days on market median days on market
1% relisted listing reappearance rate

Current Inventory Snapshot

Active priced listings2251
Median fair value$49,207
Avg deal score52/100

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Recent Signals & Alerts

Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.