Chevrolet Impala (1961-1964)
Flagged undervalued because asking -35% vs historic sold, and inventory -0%.
What It's Actually Worth
Blended value of a standard 62 yr, 37k mi example, ~$46.3K now. The green line weighs confirmed auction sales most heavily (the amber dots — what cars actually hammered for), blends in fast-selling "just-missed" listings, and lightly smooths out month-to-month composition noise.
Did our model work? 67% direction calls right
Each faint amber line is a forecast we would have made at that point in the past (12-mo horizon), drawn against what actually happened (blue). Over 152 scored forecasts: 67% got the direction right, median value error ±28%.
Walk-forward: each ghost uses only data available at that date — no hindsight. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Auction Scorecard gavel in range 8 in 10
We replayed 297 past auctions in this market — predicting each hammer price from market data before the sale (no hindsight). Typical miss: ±37%; the gavel landed inside our predicted range 8 in 10 of the time, and we lean slightly high on average.
| Sold | Car | Our range | Hammer | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-25 | 1962 · 53k mi | $25.6K–$93.4K | $78.1K | ✓ |
| 2026-07-25 | 1962 · 47k mi | $25.2K–$92.0K | $66.0K | ✓ |
| 2026-07-25 | 1964 · 48k mi | $25.3K–$92.2K | $23.0K | ✗ |
| 2026-07-24 | 1964 · 34k mi | $24.7K–$90.2K | $79.2K | ✓ |
| 2026-07-23 | 1961 · 34k mi | $24.8K–$90.3K | $103K | ✗ |
| 2026-07-21 | 1962 · 11k mi | $23.1K–$84.1K | $42.3K | ✓ |
| 2026-07-14 | 1963 · 20k mi | $25.0K–$91.3K | $26.0K | ✓ |
| 2026-07-14 | 1963 · 20k mi | $20.2K–$108K | $26.0K | ✓ |
Live now — calling it before the gavel
We're currently tracking 8 open auctions in this market. Here's our predicted hammer range for each — check back after they close.
| Closes | Car | Source | Our predicted range |
|---|---|---|---|
| open | 1964 · 5k mi | ebay | $23.4K–$126K ($54.4K) |
| open | 1962 · 27k mi | ebay | $20.4K–$110K ($47.4K) |
| open | 1964 · 0k mi | ebay | $32.8K–$177K ($76.1K) |
| open | 1961 · 51k mi | ebay | $20.7K–$112K ($48.1K) |
| open | 1964 · 26k mi | ebay | $20.5K–$110K ($47.6K) |
| open | 1963 | ebay | $20.0K–$107K ($46.3K) |
| open | 1961 · 0k mi | ebay | $32.8K–$177K ($76.1K) |
| open | 1963 · 43k mi | ebay | $20.2K–$109K ($47.0K) |
No-lookahead: predictions are made before each auction closes; the scorecard grades confirmed sold auctions only (no-sales excluded). A modeled estimate, not a guarantee. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Where We Think It's Headed
Probability and range, not a single number. Wider = less certain (not bigger gains).
| Horizon | Direction | Probability | Confidence | Past accuracy |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 mo | DOWN | 55% | Low | 63% |
| 12 mo | DOWN | 56% | Low | 67% |
| 24 mo | DOWN | 58% | Low | 79% |
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Crystal Ball — What Leading Indicators Signal
Distinct from the trend forecast above: this blends all 8 leading indicators (each at its own lead time, de-duplicated so correlated ones don't double-count) into one signal. Leading indicators are collectively signaling higher over the next ~12 months (low conviction — 23% of weighted drivers agree), driven mainly by Housing Starts and M2 Money Supply, though Housing Starts points the other way.
Are the indicators agreeing?
Each bar is one driver's current push; longer = more weight. All one side = high conviction; split = low.
If You’d Bought in 2006
$100K invested 2006-01 → today (20.6 yrs), this car vs where else you could've put the money. Rebased to 100 at the start; the dashed line is inflation (break-even).
What This Market Follows
Specialty-car prices don't move in a vacuum. These economic indicators have historically led this market — tap one to see it shifted forward by its lead time, overlaid on the value line.
Advance Retail Sales leads by about 8 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.90). Shown shifted forward 8 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Why We Think This
Current Inventory Snapshot
Comparable Markets
| Market | Undervaluation | Appreciation | Liquidity |
|---|---|---|---|
| Alfa Romeo 105 Sedan | 66 | 43 | 36 |
| Mercedes-Benz 190SL | 41 | 45 | 54 |
| BMW 2002 tii | 47 | 56 | 20 |
| Datsun 240Z | 50 | 48 | 28 |
| Datsun 280Z | 38 | 64 | 52 |
| Ferrari 308 | 36 | 50 | 52 |
| Ferrari 308 GT4 | 54 | 47 | 16 |
| Ferrari 328 | 55 | 40 | 53 |
Recent Signals & Alerts
- vin returned higher VIN relisted +$19,963 vs prior
- vin returned higher VIN relisted +$19,963 vs prior
- price jump Median asking moved sharply (z=-62.5)
- vin returned higher VIN relisted +$19,963 vs prior
- price jump Median asking moved sharply (z=-9.5)
- vin returned higher VIN relisted +$19,963 vs prior
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.