Chevrolet Impala (1961-1964)
Flagged undervalued because asking -18% vs historic sold, -20% vs 3-yr trend, inventory -1%, and -11% vs 2-yr avg.
What It's Actually Worth
Blended value of a standard 62 yr, 34k mi example, ~$48.0K now. The green line weighs confirmed auction sales most heavily (the amber dots — what cars actually hammered for), blends in fast-selling "just-missed" listings, and lightly smooths out month-to-month composition noise.
Did our model work? 67% direction calls right
Each faint amber line is a forecast we would have made at that point in the past (12-mo horizon), drawn against what actually happened (blue). Over 153 scored forecasts: 67% got the direction right, median value error ±27%.
Walk-forward: each ghost uses only data available at that date — no hindsight. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Auction Scorecard gavel in range 8 in 10
We replayed 309 past auctions in this market — predicting each hammer price from market data before the sale (no hindsight). Typical miss: ±37%; the gavel landed inside our predicted range 8 in 10 of the time, and we lean slightly high on average.
| Sold | Car | Our range | Hammer | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-22 | 1963 · 23k mi | $23.9K–$87.8K | $55.0K | ✓ |
| 2026-09-16 | 1962 · 4k mi | $30.2K–$111K | $52.0K | ✓ |
| 2026-09-11 | 1963 · 56k mi | $25.3K–$92.8K | $42.9K | ✓ |
| 2026-09-10 | 1963 · 8k mi | $24.6K–$90.3K | $130K | ✗ |
| 2026-09-10 | 1964 | $19.9K–$108K | $20.6K | ✓ |
| 2026-09-10 | 1964 · 69k mi | $25.1K–$92.1K | $19.3K | ✗ |
| 2026-09-04 | 1962 · 32k mi | $24.2K–$88.9K | $73.4K | ✓ |
| 2026-09-04 | 1962 · 2k mi | $34.4K–$126K | $50.4K | ✓ |
Live now — calling it before the gavel
We're currently tracking 8 open auctions in this market. Here's our predicted hammer range for each — check back after they close.
| Closes | Car | Source | Our predicted range |
|---|---|---|---|
| open | 1961 · 0k mi | ebay | $32.2K–$175K ($74.9K) |
| open | 1963 · 79k mi | BaT | $19.4K–$105K ($45.2K) |
| open | 1962 · 0k mi | ebay | $32.2K–$175K ($75.0K) |
| open | 1963 · 7k mi | ebay | $21.0K–$114K ($48.9K) |
| open | 1964 · 36k mi | ebay | $20.7K–$113K ($48.3K) |
| open | 1962 · 76k mi | ebay | $19.7K–$107K ($45.9K) |
| open | 1963 · 7k mi | ebay | $20.9K–$114K ($48.8K) |
| open | 1961 · 0k mi | ebay | $31.1K–$169K ($72.6K) |
No-lookahead: predictions are made before each auction closes; the scorecard grades confirmed sold auctions only (no-sales excluded). A modeled estimate, not a guarantee. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Where We Think It's Headed
Probability and range, not a single number. Wider = less certain (not bigger gains).
| Horizon | Direction | Probability | Confidence | Past accuracy |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 mo | FLAT | 50% | Low | 65% |
| 12 mo | DOWN | 56% | Low | 67% |
| 24 mo | DOWN | 58% | Low | 79% |
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Crystal Ball — What Leading Indicators Signal
Distinct from the trend forecast above: this blends all 8 leading indicators (each at its own lead time, de-duplicated so correlated ones don't double-count) into one signal. Leading indicators are collectively signaling higher over the next ~12 months (moderate conviction — 50% of weighted drivers agree), driven mainly by Housing Starts and Ethereum (USD), though Ethereum (USD) points the other way.
Are the indicators agreeing?
Each bar is one driver's current push; longer = more weight. All one side = high conviction; split = low.
If You’d Bought in 2006
$100K invested 2006-01 → today (20.7 yrs), this car vs where else you could've put the money. Rebased to 100 at the start; the dashed line is inflation (break-even).
What This Market Follows
Specialty-car prices don't move in a vacuum. These economic indicators have historically led this market — tap one to see it shifted forward by its lead time, overlaid on the value line.
Advance Retail Sales leads by about 8 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.91). Shown shifted forward 8 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Why We Think This
Current Inventory Snapshot
Comparable Markets
| Market | Undervaluation | Appreciation | Liquidity |
|---|---|---|---|
| Alfa Romeo 105 Sedan | 84 | 22 | 32 |
| Mercedes-Benz 190SL | 51 | 40 | 56 |
| BMW 2002 tii | 60 | 33 | 13 |
| Datsun 240Z | 49 | 56 | 44 |
| Datsun 280Z | 48 | 45 | 59 |
| Ferrari 308 | 38 | 55 | 45 |
| Ferrari 308 GT4 | 54 | 47 | 15 |
| Ferrari 328 | 44 | 53 | 51 |
Recent Signals & Alerts
- vin returned lower VIN relisted $-17,000 vs prior
- vin returned lower VIN relisted $-17,000 vs prior
- price jump Median asking moved sharply (z=-7.9)
- vin returned lower VIN relisted $-17,000 vs prior
- vin returned higher VIN relisted +$10,750 vs prior
- price jump Median asking moved sharply (z=8.6)
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.