Chevrolet Impala (1961-1964)
Flagged undervalued because asking -23% vs historic sold, and inventory +0%.
What It's Actually Worth
Blended value of a standard 62 yr, 34k mi example, ~$46.7K now. The green line weighs confirmed auction sales most heavily (the amber dots — what cars actually hammered for), blends in fast-selling "just-missed" listings, and lightly smooths out month-to-month composition noise.
Did our model work? 69% direction calls right
Each faint amber line is a forecast we would have made at that point in the past (12-mo horizon), drawn against what actually happened (blue). Over 151 scored forecasts: 69% got the direction right, median value error ±28%.
Walk-forward: each ghost uses only data available at that date — no hindsight. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Auction Scorecard gavel in range 8 in 10
We replayed 287 past auctions in this market — predicting each hammer price from market data before the sale (no hindsight). Typical miss: ±36%; the gavel landed inside our predicted range 8 in 10 of the time, and we lean slightly high on average.
| Sold | Car | Our range | Hammer | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-23 | 1964 · 58k mi | $27.3K–$100K | $47.5K | ✓ |
| 2026-06-15 | 1964 · 84k mi | $25.4K–$93.2K | $42.4K | ✓ |
| 2026-06-06 | 1961 · 63k mi | $27.7K–$101K | $62.7K | ✓ |
| 2026-05-31 | 1961 · 32k mi | $26.1K–$95.5K | $89.9K | ✓ |
| 2026-05-25 | 1961 · 14k mi | $23.8K–$87.2K | $85.5K | ✓ |
| 2026-05-15 | 1962 · 3k mi | $35.5K–$130K | $124K | ✓ |
| 2026-05-15 | 1962 | $20.3K–$109K | $124K | ✗ |
| 2026-05-14 | 1962 · 1k mi | $42.0K–$154K | $84.7K | ✓ |
Live now — calling it before the gavel
We're currently tracking 8 open auctions in this market. Here's our predicted hammer range for each — check back after they close.
| Closes | Car | Source | Our predicted range |
|---|---|---|---|
| open | 1961 · 0k mi | ebay | $33.3K–$179K ($77.3K) |
| open | 1964 · 91k mi | ebay | $19.4K–$104K ($44.9K) |
| open | 1964 · 0k mi | ebay | $33.4K–$180K ($77.6K) |
| open | 1962 · 4k mi | classic | $25.9K–$139K ($60.0K) |
| open | 1964 · 72k mi | ebay | $21.4K–$115K ($49.5K) |
| open | 1963 · 80k mi | ebay | $20.5K–$110K ($47.6K) |
| open | 1962 · 8k mi | ebay | $20.2K–$109K ($46.9K) |
| open | 1964 | ebay | $20.2K–$109K ($46.8K) |
No-lookahead: predictions are made before each auction closes; the scorecard grades confirmed sold auctions only (no-sales excluded). A modeled estimate, not a guarantee. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Where We Think It's Headed
Probability and range, not a single number. Wider = less certain (not bigger gains).
| Horizon | Direction | Probability | Confidence | Past accuracy |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 mo | UP | 45% | Low | 67% |
| 12 mo | DOWN | 56% | Low | 69% |
| 24 mo | DOWN | 58% | Low | 77% |
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Crystal Ball — What Leading Indicators Signal
Distinct from the trend forecast above: this blends all 8 leading indicators (each at its own lead time, de-duplicated so correlated ones don't double-count) into one signal. Leading indicators are collectively signaling higher over the next ~12 months (low conviction — 31% of weighted drivers agree), driven mainly by Housing Starts and M2 Money Supply, though Silver points the other way.
Are the indicators agreeing?
Each bar is one driver's current push; longer = more weight. All one side = high conviction; split = low.
If You’d Bought in 2006
$100K invested 2006-01 → today (20.5 yrs), this car vs where else you could've put the money. Rebased to 100 at the start; the dashed line is inflation (break-even).
What This Market Follows
Specialty-car prices don't move in a vacuum. These economic indicators have historically led this market — tap one to see it shifted forward by its lead time, overlaid on the value line.
Advance Retail Sales leads by about 8 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.91). Shown shifted forward 8 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Why We Think This
Current Inventory Snapshot
Comparable Markets
| Market | Undervaluation | Appreciation | Liquidity |
|---|---|---|---|
| Alfa Romeo 105 Sedan | 93 | 93 | 17 |
| Mercedes-Benz 190SL | 38 | 43 | 39 |
| BMW 2002 tii | 46 | 74 | 20 |
| Datsun 240Z | 41 | 56 | 38 |
| Datsun 280Z | 32 | 66 | 60 |
| Ferrari 308 | 38 | 64 | 34 |
| Ferrari 308 GT4 | 51 | 54 | 26 |
| Ferrari 328 | 58 | 46 | 42 |
Recent Signals & Alerts
- price jump Median asking moved sharply (z=10.9)
- price jump Median asking moved sharply (z=-6.0)
- price jump Median asking moved sharply (z=6.7)
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.