Tracking 2 sales in the last 90 days. We'll publish a confident 12-month outlook once 3 more sales close — at this market's typical pace, that's roughly 8 months.
What It's Actually Worth
Blended value of a standard 53 yr, 57k mi example, ~$9.5K now. The green line weighs confirmed auction sales most heavily (the amber dots — what cars actually hammered for), blends in fast-selling "just-missed" listings, and lightly smooths out month-to-month composition noise.
Each faint amber line is a forecast we would have made at that point in the past (12-mo horizon), drawn against what actually happened (blue). Over 17 scored forecasts: 94% got the direction right, median value error ±201%.
━ actual╱ past predictions (ghosts)
Walk-forward: each ghost uses only data available at that date — no hindsight. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
If You’d Bought in 2015
$100K invested 2015-01 → today (11.5 yrs), this car vs where else you could've put the money. Rebased to 100 at the start; the dashed line is inflation (break-even).
━ This car $115K━ S&P 500 $457K━ Gold $321K━ Luxury $524K━ Housing $198K₿ Bitcoin ×273 (off-scale)
Lost ground to inflation. The Honda Z600 roughly 1.1×'d your money (a real 19% LOSS to inflation). It LAGGED the stock market by about 75% — the same money in the S&P 500 would be larger. It trailed housing (-42%). (Price only — a real round-trip also loses ~10–20% to buy/sell fees and carrying costs.)
Specialty-car prices don't move in a vacuum. These economic indicators have historically led this market — tap one to see it shifted forward by its lead time, overlaid on the value line.
Nasdaq Composite leads by about 19 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.96). Shown shifted forward 19 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Honda Z600┄ Nasdaq Composite, shifted +19mo
Consumer Discretionary ETF (XLY) leads by about 19 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.96). Shown shifted forward 19 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Case-Shiller National Home Price leads by about 17 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.96). Shown shifted forward 17 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Honda Z600┄ Case-Shiller National Home Price, shifted +17mo
Advance Retail Sales leads by about 9 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.96). Shown shifted forward 9 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Honda Z600┄ Advance Retail Sales, shifted +9mo
CPI (All Urban Consumers) leads by about 2 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.96). Shown shifted forward 2 months so its turns line up with the market's.
S&P 500 leads by about 19 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.96). Shown shifted forward 19 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Honda Z600┄ S&P 500, shifted +19mo
M2 Money Supply leads by about 23 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.96). Shown shifted forward 23 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Honda Z600┄ M2 Money Supply, shifted +23mo
PCE Price Index leads by about 2 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.96). Shown shifted forward 2 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Honda Z600┄ PCE Price Index, shifted +2mo
Why We Think This
asking -67% vs historic soldasking vs historic spread
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
