Flagged undervalued because sell-through 100%, and -39% vs 2-yr avg.
What It's Actually Worth
Blended value of a standard 52 yr, 0k mi example, ~$2.3K now. The green line weighs confirmed auction sales most heavily (the amber dots — what cars actually hammered for), blends in fast-selling "just-missed" listings, and lightly smooths out month-to-month composition noise.
Each faint amber line is a forecast we would have made at that point in the past (12-mo horizon), drawn against what actually happened (blue). Over 9 scored forecasts: 56% got the direction right, median value error ±81%.
━ actual╱ past predictions (ghosts)
Walk-forward: each ghost uses only data available at that date — no hindsight. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Where We Think It's Headed
Probability and range, not a single number. Wider = less certain (not bigger gains).
Horizon
Direction
Probability
Confidence
Past accuracy
6 mo
UP
46%
Low
73%
12 mo
UP
44%
Low
56%
24 mo
DOWN
58%
Low
—
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Lead Indicator Forecast
Some indicators move before this market does. Housing Starts has historically led it by about 3 months — so its recent move implies where prices head next (dashed). The solid green line is actual value through today; the shaded path is what the lead implies.
BECAUSE Housing Starts fell 6%. THEREFORE, given its usual 3-month head start, we lean DOWN — about −2% (≈ −$39) over the next 3 months. Confidence: Moderate (correlation +0.69, 21 months overlap).
If You’d Bought in 2018
$100K invested 2018-01 → today (8.6 yrs), this car vs where else you could've put the money. Rebased to 100 at the start; the dashed line is inflation (break-even).
━ This car $95.5K━ S&P 500 $320K━ Gold $334K━ Luxury $236K━ Housing $171K₿ Bitcoin $621K (off-scale)
Lost ground to inflation. The Honda QA50 roughly 1.0×'d your money (a real 29% LOSS to inflation). It LAGGED the stock market by about 70% — the same money in the S&P 500 would be larger. It trailed housing (-44%). (Price only — a real round-trip also loses ~10–20% to buy/sell fees and carrying costs.)
Specialty-car prices don't move in a vacuum. These economic indicators have historically led this market — tap one to see it shifted forward by its lead time, overlaid on the value line.
Housing Starts leads by about 3 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.69). Shown shifted forward 3 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Honda QA50┄ Housing Starts, shifted +3mo
Consumer Discretionary ETF (XLY) leads by about 13 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.64). Shown shifted forward 13 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Ethereum (USD) leads by about 18 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.61). Shown shifted forward 18 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Honda QA50┄ Ethereum (USD), shifted +18mo
Bitcoin (USD) leads by about 7 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.61). Shown shifted forward 7 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Honda QA50┄ Bitcoin (USD), shifted +7mo
10-Year Treasury Yield leads by about 0 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.58). Shown shifted forward 0 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Nasdaq Composite leads by about 13 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.57). Shown shifted forward 13 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Honda QA50┄ Nasdaq Composite, shifted +13mo
Personal Savings Rate leads by about 8 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.56). Shown shifted forward 8 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Honda QA50┄ Personal Savings Rate, shifted +8mo
2-Year Treasury Yield leads by about 15 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.56). Shown shifted forward 15 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.