Tracking 0 sales in the last 90 days. We'll publish a confident 12-month outlook once 5 more sales close — at this market's typical pace, that's roughly ~2.5 years.
What It's Actually Worth
Blended value of a standard 52 yr, 6k mi example, ~$2.8K now. The green line weighs confirmed auction sales most heavily (the amber dots — what cars actually hammered for), blends in fast-selling "just-missed" listings, and lightly smooths out month-to-month composition noise.
Some indicators move before this market does. 2-Year Treasury Yield has historically led it by about 4 months — so its recent move implies where prices head next (dashed). The solid green line is actual value through today; the shaded path is what the lead implies.
BECAUSE 2-Year Treasury Yield rose 22%. THEREFORE, given its usual 4-month head start, we lean UP — about +1% (≈ +$34) over the next 4 months. Confidence: Moderate (correlation +0.64, 18 months overlap).
If You’d Bought in 2020
$100K invested 2020-01 → today (6.5 yrs), this car vs where else you could've put the money. Rebased to 100 at the start; the dashed line is inflation (break-even).
━ This car $42.0K━ S&P 500 $261K━ Gold $259K━ Luxury $160K━ Housing $155K₿ Bitcoin $634K (off-scale)
Lost ground to inflation. The Honda CB175/CL175 roughly 0.4×'d your money (a real 67% LOSS to inflation). It LAGGED the stock market by about 84% — the same money in the S&P 500 would be larger. It trailed housing (-73%). (Price only — a real round-trip also loses ~10–20% to buy/sell fees and carrying costs.)
Specialty-car prices don't move in a vacuum. These economic indicators have historically led this market — tap one to see it shifted forward by its lead time, overlaid on the value line.
2-Year Treasury Yield leads by about 4 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.64). Shown shifted forward 4 months so its turns line up with the market's.
WTI Crude Oil leads by about 20 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.63). Shown shifted forward 20 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Honda CB175/CL175┄ WTI Crude Oil, shifted +20mo
Initial Jobless Claims leads by about 22 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.61). Shown shifted forward 22 months so its turns line up with the market's.
CPI (All Urban Consumers) leads by about 9 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.59). Shown shifted forward 9 months so its turns line up with the market's.
LVMH (luxury proxy ADR) leads by about 10 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.59). Shown shifted forward 10 months so its turns line up with the market's.
US Regular Gas Price leads by about 9 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.58). Shown shifted forward 9 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Honda CB175/CL175┄ US Regular Gas Price, shifted +9mo
Housing Starts leads by about 9 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.58). Shown shifted forward 9 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Honda CB175/CL175┄ Housing Starts, shifted +9mo
10-Year Treasury Yield leads by about 11 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.56). Shown shifted forward 11 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
