Tracking 3 sales in the last 90 days. We'll publish a confident 12-month outlook once 2 more sales close — at this market's typical pace, that's roughly ~4 months.
What It's Actually Worth
Blended value of a standard 36 yr, 97k mi example, ~$10.4K now. The green line weighs confirmed auction sales most heavily (the amber dots — what cars actually hammered for), blends in fast-selling "just-missed" listings, and lightly smooths out month-to-month composition noise.
Building historyNot enough data to chart yet — check back as sales accrue.
Each faint amber line is a forecast we would have made at that point in the past (12-mo horizon), drawn against what actually happened (blue). Over 8 scored forecasts: 75% got the direction right, median value error ±41%.
Track record buildingNot enough graded forecasts yet to show accuracy.
━ actual╱ past predictions (ghosts)
Walk-forward: each ghost uses only data available at that date — no hindsight. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Auction Scorecard gavel in range 8 in 10
We replayed 31 past auctions in this market — predicting each hammer price from market data before the sale (no hindsight). Typical miss: ±37%; the gavel landed inside our predicted range 8 in 10 of the time, and we lean slightly high on average.
Sold
Car
Our range
Hammer
2026-06-30
1985
$4.0K–$21.2K
$2.0K
✗
2026-06-09
1991 · 126k mi
$3.7K–$13.7K
$7.2K
✓
2026-05-28
1988 · 109k mi
$3.5K–$18.6K
$10.5K
✓
2026-05-10
1991 · 126k mi
$3.7K–$13.5K
$10.3K
✓
2026-04-26
1991 · 54k mi
$4.9K–$18.0K
$10.7K
✓
2026-01-17
1985 · 7k mi
$4.9K–$25.7K
$23.0K
✓
2025-12-03
1990 · 7k mi
$7.1K–$26.1K
$10.9K
✓
2025-10-22
1993 · 10k mi
$4.7K–$17.2K
$6.5K
✓
Live now — calling it before the gavel
We're currently tracking 1 open auction in this market. Here's our predicted hammer range for each — check back after they close.
Closes
Car
Source
Our predicted range
open
1988 · 154k mi
classic
$3.1K–$16.7K ($7.2K)
No-lookahead: predictions are made before each auction closes; the scorecard grades confirmed sold auctions only (no-sales excluded). A modeled estimate, not a guarantee. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Lead Indicator Forecast
Some indicators move before this market does. Bitcoin (USD) has historically led it by about 24 months — so its recent move implies where prices head next (dashed). The solid green line is actual value through today; the shaded path is what the lead implies.
BECAUSE bitcoin rose 31%. THEREFORE, given its usual 24-month head start, we lean DOWN — about −4% (≈ −$372) over the next 24 months. Confidence: Moderate (correlation +0.73, 20 months overlap).
If You’d Bought in 2021
$100K invested 2021-07 → today (5.2 yrs), this car vs where else you could've put the money. Rebased to 100 at the start; the dashed line is inflation (break-even).
━ This car $98.7K━ S&P 500 $191K━ Gold $241K━ Luxury $72.5K━ Housing $127K₿ Bitcoin $187K (off-scale)
Lost ground to inflation. The Volkswagen Golf/Rabbit Cabriolet roughly 1.0×'d your money (a real 20% LOSS to inflation). It LAGGED the stock market by about 48% — the same money in the S&P 500 would be larger. It trailed housing (-22%). (Price only — a real round-trip also loses ~10–20% to buy/sell fees and carrying costs.)
Specialty-car prices don't move in a vacuum. These economic indicators have historically led this market — tap one to see it shifted forward by its lead time, overlaid on the value line.
Bitcoin (USD) leads by about 24 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.73). Shown shifted forward 24 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Advance Retail Sales leads by about 8 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.73). Shown shifted forward 8 months so its turns line up with the market's.
VIX Volatility Index leads by about 14 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.73). Shown shifted forward 14 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Effective Fed Funds Rate leads by about 24 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.64). Shown shifted forward 24 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Dow Jones Industrial leads by about 21 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.64). Shown shifted forward 21 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Volkswagen Golf/Rabbit Cabriolet┄ Dow Jones Industrial, shifted +21mo
Russell 2000 (small cap) leads by about 24 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.62). Shown shifted forward 24 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Volkswagen Golf/Rabbit Cabriolet┄ Russell 2000 (small cap), shifted +24mo
LVMH (luxury proxy ADR) leads by about 17 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.61). Shown shifted forward 17 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
