Tracking 6 sales in the last 90 days — the modeled signal will appear here on the next nightly rebuild.
What It's Actually Worth
Blended value of a standard 37 yr, 91k mi example, ~$10.8K now. The green line weighs confirmed auction sales most heavily (the amber dots — what cars actually hammered for), blends in fast-selling "just-missed" listings, and lightly smooths out month-to-month composition noise.
Each faint amber line is a forecast we would have made at that point in the past (12-mo horizon), drawn against what actually happened (blue). Over 10 scored forecasts: 80% got the direction right, median value error ±53%.
━ actual╱ past predictions (ghosts)
Walk-forward: each ghost uses only data available at that date — no hindsight. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Auction Scorecard gavel in range 8 in 10
We replayed 32 past auctions in this market — predicting each hammer price from market data before the sale (no hindsight). Typical miss: ±36%; the gavel landed inside our predicted range 8 in 10 of the time, and we lean slightly high on average.
Sold
Car
Our range
Hammer
2026-06-30
1985
$4.0K–$21.2K
$2.0K
✗
2026-06-09
1991 · 126k mi
$3.9K–$14.1K
$7.2K
✓
2026-05-28
1988 · 109k mi
$3.5K–$18.6K
$10.5K
✓
2026-05-10
1991 · 126k mi
$3.5K–$12.9K
$10.3K
✓
2026-04-26
1991 · 54k mi
$5.0K–$18.1K
$10.7K
✓
2026-01-17
1985 · 7k mi
$4.9K–$25.7K
$23.0K
✓
2026-01-17
1985 · 7k mi
$7.2K–$26.3K
$23.0K
✓
2025-12-03
1990 · 7k mi
$7.7K–$28.1K
$10.9K
✓
Live now — calling it before the gavel
We're currently tracking 1 open auction in this market. Here's our predicted hammer range for each — check back after they close.
Closes
Car
Source
Our predicted range
open
1988 · 154k mi
classic
$3.1K–$16.7K ($7.2K)
No-lookahead: predictions are made before each auction closes; the scorecard grades confirmed sold auctions only (no-sales excluded). A modeled estimate, not a guarantee. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Lead Indicator Forecast
Some indicators move before this market does. Advance Retail Sales has historically led it by about 8 months — so its recent move implies where prices head next (dashed). The solid green line is actual value through today; the shaded path is what the lead implies.
BECAUSE Advance Retail Sales rose 4%. THEREFORE, given its usual 8-month head start, we lean UP — about +1% (≈ +$103) over the next 8 months. Confidence: Moderate (correlation +0.72, 20 months overlap).
Crystal Ball — What Leading Indicators Signal
Distinct from the trend forecast above: this blends all 8 leading indicators (each at its own lead time, de-duplicated so correlated ones don't double-count) into one signal. Leading indicators are collectively signaling lower over the next ~12 months (moderate conviction — 54% of weighted drivers agree), driven mainly by 10-Year Treasury Yield and US Regular Gas Price, though Unemployment Rate points the other way.
Trend and leading indicators agree — both point down. Higher-conviction read.
Are the indicators agreeing?
Each bar is one driver's current push; longer = more weight. All one side = high conviction; split = low.
If You’d Bought in 2021
$100K invested 2021-07 → today (5.1 yrs), this car vs where else you could've put the money. Rebased to 100 at the start; the dashed line is inflation (break-even).
━ This car $99.2K━ S&P 500 $193K━ Gold $246K━ Luxury $80.6K━ Housing $126K₿ Bitcoin $153K (off-scale)
Lost ground to inflation. The Volkswagen Golf/Rabbit Cabriolet roughly 1.0×'d your money (a real 19% LOSS to inflation). It LAGGED the stock market by about 49% — the same money in the S&P 500 would be larger. It trailed housing (-21%). (Price only — a real round-trip also loses ~10–20% to buy/sell fees and carrying costs.)
Specialty-car prices don't move in a vacuum. These economic indicators have historically led this market — tap one to see it shifted forward by its lead time, overlaid on the value line.
Advance Retail Sales leads by about 8 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.72). Shown shifted forward 8 months so its turns line up with the market's.
US Metro Mean Temperature leads by about 4 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.59). Shown shifted forward 4 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Volkswagen Golf/Rabbit Cabriolet┄ US Metro Mean Temperature, shifted +4mo
10-Year Treasury Yield leads by about 23 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.58). Shown shifted forward 23 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Russell 2000 (small cap) leads by about 6 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.57). Shown shifted forward 6 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Volkswagen Golf/Rabbit Cabriolet┄ Russell 2000 (small cap), shifted +6mo
Trade-Weighted Dollar Index leads by about 14 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.56). Shown shifted forward 14 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Volkswagen Golf/Rabbit Cabriolet┄ Trade-Weighted Dollar Index, shifted +14mo
US Regular Gas Price leads by about 12 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.52). Shown shifted forward 12 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Volkswagen Golf/Rabbit Cabriolet┄ US Regular Gas Price, shifted +12mo
10Y-2Y Yield Spread leads by about 21 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.52). Shown shifted forward 21 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Consumer Discretionary ETF (XLY) leads by about 24 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.52). Shown shifted forward 24 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
