Volkswagen Golf/Rabbit Cabriolet
Flagged undervalued because asking -28% vs historic sold, -92% vs 2-yr avg, and sell-through 100%.
What It's Actually Worth
Blended value of a standard 36 yr, 90k mi example, ~$10.0K now. The green line weighs confirmed auction sales most heavily (the amber dots — what cars actually hammered for), blends in fast-selling "just-missed" listings, and lightly smooths out month-to-month composition noise.
Did our model work? 67% direction calls right
Each faint amber line is a forecast we would have made at that point in the past (12-mo horizon), drawn against what actually happened (blue). Over 9 scored forecasts: 67% got the direction right, median value error ±56%.
Walk-forward: each ghost uses only data available at that date — no hindsight. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Auction Scorecard gavel in range 8 in 10
We replayed 32 past auctions in this market — predicting each hammer price from market data before the sale (no hindsight). Typical miss: ±36%; the gavel landed inside our predicted range 8 in 10 of the time, and we lean slightly high on average.
| Sold | Car | Our range | Hammer | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-09 | 1991 · 126k mi | $3.6K–$13.4K | $7.2K | ✓ |
| 2026-05-10 | 1991 · 126k mi | $3.5K–$12.7K | $10.3K | ✓ |
| 2026-04-26 | 1991 · 54k mi | $4.9K–$18.1K | $10.7K | ✓ |
| 2026-01-17 | 1985 · 7k mi | $4.9K–$25.7K | $23.0K | ✓ |
| 2026-01-17 | 1985 · 7k mi | $7.4K–$27.0K | $23.0K | ✓ |
| 2025-12-03 | 1990 · 7k mi | $8.0K–$29.3K | $10.9K | ✓ |
| 2025-10-22 | 1993 · 10k mi | $5.0K–$18.5K | $6.5K | ✓ |
| 2025-08-19 | 1991 · 46k mi | $3.3K–$12.1K | $9.9K | ✓ |
Live now — calling it before the gavel
We're currently tracking 2 open auctions in this market. Here's our predicted hammer range for each — check back after they close.
| Closes | Car | Source | Our predicted range |
|---|---|---|---|
| open | 1985 | hagerty | $4.0K–$21.2K ($9.2K) |
| open | 1988 · 109k mi | classic | $3.5K–$18.6K ($8.1K) |
No-lookahead: predictions are made before each auction closes; the scorecard grades confirmed sold auctions only (no-sales excluded). A modeled estimate, not a guarantee. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Where We Think It's Headed
Probability and range, not a single number. Wider = less certain (not bigger gains).
| Horizon | Direction | Probability | Confidence | Past accuracy |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 mo | UP | 46% | Low | 47% |
| 12 mo | UP | 45% | Low | 67% |
| 24 mo | UP | 43% | Low | — |
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Lead Indicator Forecast
Some indicators move before this market does. US Metro Mean Temperature has historically led it by about 2 months — so its recent move implies where prices head next (dashed). The solid green line is actual value through today; the shaded path is what the lead implies.
If You’d Bought in 2021
$100K invested 2021-07 → today (5.0 yrs), this car vs where else you could've put the money. Rebased to 100 at the start; the dashed line is inflation (break-even).
What This Market Follows
Specialty-car prices don't move in a vacuum. These economic indicators have historically led this market — tap one to see it shifted forward by its lead time, overlaid on the value line.
US Metro Mean Temperature leads by about 2 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.62). Shown shifted forward 2 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Why We Think This
Current Inventory Snapshot
Comparable Markets
| Market | Undervaluation | Appreciation | Liquidity |
|---|---|---|---|
| Alfa Romeo 105 Sedan | 93 | 93 | 17 |
| Mercedes-Benz 190SL | 38 | 43 | 39 |
| BMW 2002 tii | 46 | 74 | 20 |
| Datsun 240Z | 41 | 56 | 38 |
| Datsun 280Z | 32 | 66 | 60 |
| Ferrari 308 | 38 | 64 | 34 |
| Ferrari 308 GT4 | 51 | 54 | 26 |
| Ferrari 328 | 58 | 46 | 42 |
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.