Flagged undervalued because asking -48% vs historic sold, -23% vs 2-yr avg, and -25% vs 3-yr trend.
What It's Actually Worth
Blended value of a standard 60 yr, 44k mi example, ~$17.0K now. The green line weighs confirmed auction sales most heavily (the amber dots — what cars actually hammered for), blends in fast-selling "just-missed" listings, and lightly smooths out month-to-month composition noise.
Each faint amber line is a forecast we would have made at that point in the past (12-mo horizon), drawn against what actually happened (blue). Over 112 scored forecasts: 62% got the direction right, median value error ±45%.
━ actual╱ past predictions (ghosts)
Walk-forward: each ghost uses only data available at that date — no hindsight. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Auction Scorecard live
Live now — calling it before the gavel
We're currently tracking 8 open auctions in this market. Here's our predicted hammer range for each — check back after they close.
Closes
Car
Source
Our predicted range
open
1966 · 59k mi
ebay
$7.7K–$41.7K ($17.9K)
open
1966 · 59k mi
ebay
$7.7K–$41.7K ($17.9K)
open
1966 · 59k mi
ebay
$8.0K–$43.5K ($18.7K)
open
1966 · 59k mi
ebay
$8.0K–$43.5K ($18.7K)
open
1961 · 87k mi
ebay
$7.3K–$39.6K ($17.0K)
open
1966 · 59k mi
ebay
$8.3K–$44.7K ($19.3K)
open
1966 · 59k mi
ebay
$8.1K–$43.9K ($18.9K)
open
1961 · 87k mi
ebay
$7.4K–$39.9K ($17.2K)
No-lookahead: predictions are made before each auction closes; the scorecard grades confirmed sold auctions only (no-sales excluded). A modeled estimate, not a guarantee. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Where We Think It's Headed
Probability and range, not a single number. Wider = less certain (not bigger gains).
Horizon
Direction
Probability
Confidence
Past accuracy
6 mo
UP
51%
Low
59%
12 mo
UP
53%
Low
62%
24 mo
UP
54%
Low
68%
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
If You’d Bought in 2012
$100K invested 2012-01 → today (14.7 yrs), this car vs where else you could've put the money. Rebased to 100 at the start; the dashed line is inflation (break-even).
━ This car $164K━ S&P 500 $758K━ Gold $251K━ Luxury $587K━ Housing $251K
Roughly tracked inflation — flat in real terms. The Ford Econoline Pickup roughly 1.6×'d your money (a real, inflation-adjusted 1.1× gain). It LAGGED the stock market by about 78% — the same money in the S&P 500 would be larger. It trailed housing (-35%). (Price only — a real round-trip also loses ~10–20% to buy/sell fees and carrying costs.)
Specialty-car prices don't move in a vacuum. These economic indicators have historically led this market — tap one to see it shifted forward by its lead time, overlaid on the value line.
Nasdaq Composite leads by about 18 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.70). Shown shifted forward 18 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Ford Econoline Pickup┄ Nasdaq Composite, shifted +18mo
S&P 500 leads by about 18 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.70). Shown shifted forward 18 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Ford Econoline Pickup┄ S&P 500, shifted +18mo
Dow Jones Industrial leads by about 18 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.69). Shown shifted forward 18 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Ford Econoline Pickup┄ Dow Jones Industrial, shifted +18mo
Real Disposable Income per Capita leads by about 21 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.69). Shown shifted forward 21 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Ford Econoline Pickup┄ Real Disposable Income per Capita, shifted +21mo
Consumer Discretionary ETF (XLY) leads by about 18 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.69). Shown shifted forward 18 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Ford Econoline Pickup┄ Consumer Discretionary ETF (XLY), shifted +18mo
M2 Money Supply leads by about 10 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.69). Shown shifted forward 10 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Ford Econoline Pickup┄ M2 Money Supply, shifted +10mo
Advance Retail Sales leads by about 19 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.69). Shown shifted forward 19 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Ford Econoline Pickup┄ Advance Retail Sales, shifted +19mo
LVMH (luxury proxy ADR) leads by about 14 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.69). Shown shifted forward 14 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Ford Econoline Pickup┄ LVMH (luxury proxy ADR), shifted +14mo
Why We Think This
Appreciation Momentum
18
Undervaluation
65
Liquidity
48
Speculation Opportunity
51
Depreciation Risk
62
Overvaluation
27
asking -48% vs historic soldasking vs historic spread
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.