Toyota FJ40
Showing appreciation momentum: +17% vs 12-mo avg, and sale prices +0.5%/mo.
What It's Actually Worth
Blended value of a standard 48 yr, 36k mi example, ~$28.1K now. The green line weighs confirmed auction sales most heavily (the amber dots — what cars actually hammered for), blends in fast-selling "just-missed" listings, and lightly smooths out month-to-month composition noise.
Did our model work? 43% direction calls right
Each faint amber line is a forecast we would have made at that point in the past (12-mo horizon), drawn against what actually happened (blue). Over 103 scored forecasts: 43% got the direction right, median value error ±25%.
Walk-forward: each ghost uses only data available at that date — no hindsight. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Auction Scorecard gavel in range 8 in 10
We replayed 570 past auctions in this market — predicting each hammer price from market data before the sale (no hindsight). Typical miss: ±29%; the gavel landed inside our predicted range 8 in 10 of the time, and we lean slightly high on average.
| Sold | Car | Our range | Hammer | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-07 | 1967 · 74k mi | $14.9K–$54.4K | $48.0K | ✓ |
| 2026-08-02 | 1978 · 22k mi | $14.5K–$52.9K | $25.8K | ✓ |
| 2026-08-02 | 1978 · 35k mi | $12.3K–$66.0K | $25.8K | ✓ |
| 2026-07-31 | 1982 · 0k mi | $19.6K–$71.6K | $17.9K | ✗ |
| 2026-07-25 | 1968 · 3k mi | $19.2K–$70.1K | $89.0K | ✗ |
| 2026-07-25 | 1964 · 12k mi | $16.1K–$58.8K | $11.8K | ✗ |
| 2026-07-24 | 1971 · 4k mi | $19.1K–$69.8K | $48.3K | ✓ |
| 2026-07-22 | 1977 · 27k mi | $15.4K–$56.2K | $26.5K | ✓ |
Live now — calling it before the gavel
We're currently tracking 8 open auctions in this market. Here's our predicted hammer range for each — check back after they close.
| Closes | Car | Source | Our predicted range |
|---|---|---|---|
| open | 1972 | BaT | $12.1K–$65.3K ($28.1K) |
| open | 1968 | BaT | $12.1K–$65.3K ($28.1K) |
| open | 1967 | BaT | $12.1K–$65.3K ($28.1K) |
| open | 1975 | BaT | $12.1K–$65.2K ($28.1K) |
| open | 1979 · 71k mi | ebay | $11.7K–$62.8K ($27.1K) |
| open | 1969 · 1k mi | BaT | $14.9K–$80.0K ($34.5K) |
| open | 1982 · 137k mi | BaT | $12.4K–$66.6K ($28.8K) |
| open | 1975 · 10k mi | classic | $12.2K–$65.8K ($28.4K) |
No-lookahead: predictions are made before each auction closes; the scorecard grades confirmed sold auctions only (no-sales excluded). A modeled estimate, not a guarantee. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Where We Think It's Headed
Probability and range, not a single number. Wider = less certain (not bigger gains).
| Horizon | Direction | Probability | Confidence | Past accuracy |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 mo | UP | 50% | Low | 50% |
| 12 mo | UP | 51% | Low | 43% |
| 24 mo | UP | 52% | Low | 47% |
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Crystal Ball — What Leading Indicators Signal
Distinct from the trend forecast above: this blends all 8 leading indicators (each at its own lead time, de-duplicated so correlated ones don't double-count) into one signal. Leading indicators are collectively signaling higher over the next ~12 months (low conviction — 26% of weighted drivers agree), driven mainly by 10-Year Treasury Yield and Ethereum (USD), though Ethereum (USD) points the other way.
Are the indicators agreeing?
Each bar is one driver's current push; longer = more weight. All one side = high conviction; split = low.
If You’d Bought in 2013
$100K invested 2013-01 → today (13.6 yrs), this car vs where else you could've put the money. Rebased to 100 at the start; the dashed line is inflation (break-even).
What This Market Follows
Specialty-car prices don't move in a vacuum. These economic indicators have historically led this market — tap one to see it shifted forward by its lead time, overlaid on the value line.
Bitcoin (USD) leads by about 5 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.61). Shown shifted forward 5 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Why We Think This
Current Inventory Snapshot
Comparable Markets
| Market | Undervaluation | Appreciation | Liquidity |
|---|---|---|---|
| Alfa Romeo 105 Sedan | 66 | 43 | 36 |
| Mercedes-Benz 190SL | 41 | 45 | 54 |
| BMW 2002 tii | 47 | 56 | 20 |
| Datsun 240Z | 50 | 48 | 28 |
| Datsun 280Z | 38 | 64 | 52 |
| Ferrari 308 | 36 | 50 | 52 |
| Ferrari 308 GT4 | 54 | 47 | 16 |
| Ferrari 328 | 55 | 40 | 53 |
Recent Signals & Alerts
- vin returned lower VIN relisted $-7,000 vs prior
- price jump Median asking moved sharply (z=5.6)
- vin returned lower VIN relisted $-7,000 vs prior
- price jump Median asking moved sharply (z=-6.7)
- vin returned lower VIN relisted $-7,000 vs prior
- vin returned lower VIN relisted $-7,000 vs prior
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.