Toyota FJ40
Flagged undervalued because -30% vs 2-yr avg, -33% vs 3-yr trend, asking +4% vs historic sold, and inventory +0%.
What It's Actually Worth
Blended value of a standard 48 yr, 38k mi example, ~$28.3K now. The green line weighs confirmed auction sales most heavily (the amber dots — what cars actually hammered for), blends in fast-selling "just-missed" listings, and lightly smooths out month-to-month composition noise.
Did our model work? 41% direction calls right
Each faint amber line is a forecast we would have made at that point in the past (12-mo horizon), drawn against what actually happened (blue). Over 102 scored forecasts: 41% got the direction right, median value error ±28%.
Walk-forward: each ghost uses only data available at that date — no hindsight. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Auction Scorecard gavel in range 8 in 10
We replayed 553 past auctions in this market — predicting each hammer price from market data before the sale (no hindsight). Typical miss: ±30%; the gavel landed inside our predicted range 8 in 10 of the time, and we lean slightly high on average.
| Sold | Car | Our range | Hammer | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-29 | 1980 · 22k mi | $15.5K–$56.8K | $28.0K | ✓ |
| 2026-06-24 | 1982 · 1k mi | $20.0K–$73.3K | $27.3K | ✓ |
| 2026-06-23 | 1981 · 1k mi | $20.8K–$76.1K | $33.6K | ✓ |
| 2026-06-23 | 1972 · 3k mi | $19.4K–$71.0K | $29.0K | ✓ |
| 2026-06-22 | 1972 · 15k mi | $12.9K–$68.4K | $140K | ✗ |
| 2026-06-22 | 1972 · 15k mi | $16.3K–$59.9K | $140K | ✗ |
| 2026-06-22 | 1976 · 73k mi | $16.3K–$59.7K | $21.0K | ✓ |
| 2026-06-20 | 1967 · 93k mi | $17.5K–$64.1K | $33.0K | ✓ |
Live now — calling it before the gavel
We're currently tracking 8 open auctions in this market. Here's our predicted hammer range for each — check back after they close.
| Closes | Car | Source | Our predicted range |
|---|---|---|---|
| open | 1974 · 99k mi | BaT | $13.3K–$71.7K ($30.9K) |
| open | 1983 · 1k mi | classic | $15.6K–$84.0K ($36.2K) |
| open | 1972 · 44k mi | classic | $12.2K–$65.6K ($28.3K) |
| open | 1972 · 24k mi | classic | $12.5K–$67.4K ($29.1K) |
| open | 1979 · 71k mi | ebay | $13.0K–$70.0K ($30.2K) |
| open | 1970 | BaT | $12.7K–$68.5K ($29.5K) |
| open | 1970 · 0k mi | classic | $16.8K–$90.5K ($39.0K) |
| open | 1968 · 5k mi | classic | $14.8K–$79.7K ($34.4K) |
No-lookahead: predictions are made before each auction closes; the scorecard grades confirmed sold auctions only (no-sales excluded). A modeled estimate, not a guarantee. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Where We Think It's Headed
Probability and range, not a single number. Wider = less certain (not bigger gains).
| Horizon | Direction | Probability | Confidence | Past accuracy |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 mo | UP | 50% | Low | 54% |
| 12 mo | UP | 51% | Low | 41% |
| 24 mo | UP | 52% | Low | 47% |
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Lead Indicator Forecast
Some indicators move before this market does. Ethereum (USD) has historically led it by about 1 months — so its recent move implies where prices head next (dashed). The solid green line is actual value through today; the shaded path is what the lead implies.
If You’d Bought in 2013
$100K invested 2013-01 → today (13.5 yrs), this car vs where else you could've put the money. Rebased to 100 at the start; the dashed line is inflation (break-even).
What This Market Follows
Specialty-car prices don't move in a vacuum. These economic indicators have historically led this market — tap one to see it shifted forward by its lead time, overlaid on the value line.
Ethereum (USD) leads by about 0 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.61). Shown shifted forward 0 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Why We Think This
Current Inventory Snapshot
Comparable Markets
| Market | Undervaluation | Appreciation | Liquidity |
|---|---|---|---|
| Alfa Romeo 105 Sedan | 93 | 93 | 17 |
| Mercedes-Benz 190SL | 38 | 43 | 39 |
| BMW 2002 tii | 46 | 74 | 20 |
| Datsun 240Z | 41 | 56 | 38 |
| Datsun 280Z | 32 | 66 | 60 |
| Ferrari 308 | 38 | 64 | 34 |
| Ferrari 308 GT4 | 51 | 54 | 26 |
| Ferrari 328 | 58 | 46 | 42 |
Recent Signals & Alerts
- inventory spike Inventory spiked (robust z=4.0)
- price jump Median asking moved sharply (z=56.9)
- inventory spike Inventory spiked (robust z=4.7)
- price jump Median asking moved sharply (z=-92.5)
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.