Toyota FJ40
Flagged undervalued because -7% vs 2-yr avg, -7% vs 3-yr trend, asking +6% vs historic sold, and inventory -0%.
What It's Actually Worth
Blended value of a standard 48 yr, 39k mi example, ~$29.3K now. The green line weighs confirmed auction sales most heavily (the amber dots — what cars actually hammered for), blends in fast-selling "just-missed" listings, and lightly smooths out month-to-month composition noise.
Did our model work? 46% direction calls right
Each faint amber line is a forecast we would have made at that point in the past (12-mo horizon), drawn against what actually happened (blue). Over 104 scored forecasts: 46% got the direction right, median value error ±25%.
Walk-forward: each ghost uses only data available at that date — no hindsight. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Auction Scorecard gavel in range 8 in 10
We replayed 588 past auctions in this market — predicting each hammer price from market data before the sale (no hindsight). Typical miss: ±29%; the gavel landed inside our predicted range 8 in 10 of the time, and we lean slightly high on average.
| Sold | Car | Our range | Hammer | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-21 | 1974 · 99k mi | $15.1K–$55.4K | $30.0K | ✓ |
| 2026-09-20 | 1975 · 70k mi | $14.1K–$51.8K | $29.5K | ✓ |
| 2026-09-15 | 1974 · 1k mi | $17.8K–$65.2K | $33.0K | ✓ |
| 2026-09-15 | 1973 · 10k mi | $15.3K–$56.1K | $28.3K | ✓ |
| 2026-09-10 | 1981 · 154k mi | $12.8K–$47.1K | $27.5K | ✓ |
| 2026-09-09 | 1978 · 99k mi | $15.1K–$55.4K | $29.0K | ✓ |
| 2026-08-30 | 1972 · 0k mi | $18.5K–$67.8K | $38.5K | ✓ |
| 2026-08-28 | 1967 · 2k mi | $18.1K–$66.3K | $83.0K | ✗ |
Live now — calling it before the gavel
We're currently tracking 8 open auctions in this market. Here's our predicted hammer range for each — check back after they close.
| Closes | Car | Source | Our predicted range |
|---|---|---|---|
| open | 1966 | BaT | $13.0K–$70.6K ($30.3K) |
| open | 1973 | C&B | $13.0K–$70.9K ($30.4K) |
| open | 1982 · 53k mi | ebay | $12.0K–$65.1K ($27.9K) |
| open | 1976 | C&B | $13.1K–$70.8K ($30.4K) |
| open | 1978 · 27k mi | BaT | $11.9K–$64.2K ($27.6K) |
| open | 1978 · 7k mi | classic | $13.5K–$72.3K ($31.2K) |
| open | 1970 | classic | $12.3K–$66.1K ($28.5K) |
| open | 1965 · 54k mi | classic | $11.9K–$64.1K ($27.7K) |
No-lookahead: predictions are made before each auction closes; the scorecard grades confirmed sold auctions only (no-sales excluded). A modeled estimate, not a guarantee. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Where We Think It's Headed
Probability and range, not a single number. Wider = less certain (not bigger gains).
| Horizon | Direction | Probability | Confidence | Past accuracy |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 mo | UP | 50% | Low | 56% |
| 12 mo | UP | 51% | Low | 46% |
| 24 mo | UP | 52% | Low | 49% |
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Crystal Ball — What Leading Indicators Signal
Distinct from the trend forecast above: this blends all 8 leading indicators (each at its own lead time, de-duplicated so correlated ones don't double-count) into one signal. Leading indicators are collectively signaling higher over the next ~12 months (low conviction — 23% of weighted drivers agree), driven mainly by Ethereum (USD) and 10-Year Treasury Yield, though Ethereum (USD) points the other way.
Are the indicators agreeing?
Each bar is one driver's current push; longer = more weight. All one side = high conviction; split = low.
If You’d Bought in 2013
$100K invested 2013-01 → today (13.7 yrs), this car vs where else you could've put the money. Rebased to 100 at the start; the dashed line is inflation (break-even).
What This Market Follows
Specialty-car prices don't move in a vacuum. These economic indicators have historically led this market — tap one to see it shifted forward by its lead time, overlaid on the value line.
LVMH (luxury proxy ADR) leads by about 2 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.60). Shown shifted forward 2 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Why We Think This
Current Inventory Snapshot
Comparable Markets
| Market | Undervaluation | Appreciation | Liquidity |
|---|---|---|---|
| Alfa Romeo 105 Sedan | 84 | 22 | 32 |
| Mercedes-Benz 190SL | 51 | 40 | 56 |
| BMW 2002 tii | 60 | 33 | 13 |
| Datsun 240Z | 49 | 56 | 44 |
| Datsun 280Z | 48 | 45 | 59 |
| Ferrari 308 | 38 | 55 | 45 |
| Ferrari 308 GT4 | 54 | 47 | 15 |
| Ferrari 328 | 44 | 53 | 51 |
Recent Signals & Alerts
- price jump Median asking moved sharply (z=5.8)
- price jump Median asking moved sharply (z=-5.8)
- vin returned lower VIN relisted $-7,000 vs prior
- vin returned lower VIN relisted $-7,000 vs prior
- price jump Median asking moved sharply (z=-8.2)
- vin returned lower VIN relisted $-7,000 vs prior
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.